| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.469466513979295 |
| beta | 0.144645237637946 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 189300 | 199900 | -10600 |
| 4 | 192200 | 202703.850339757 | -10503.8503397570 |
| 5 | 187900 | 204839.564261275 | -16939.5642612747 |
| 6 | 193900 | 202803.626335014 | -8903.62633501447 |
| 7 | 189100 | 203935.681673547 | -14835.6816735474 |
| 8 | 193100 | 201275.402455368 | -8175.40245536788 |
| 9 | 194800 | 201186.741644174 | -6386.74164417389 |
| 10 | 200200 | 201504.098500822 | -1304.09850082250 |
| 11 | 211500 | 204119.029878472 | 7380.970121528 |
| 12 | 202100 | 211312.523007717 | -9212.52300771713 |
| 13 | 200300 | 210090.340295885 | -9790.34029588458 |
| 14 | 199200 | 207932.067933169 | -8732.06793316864 |
| 15 | 204900 | 205677.658368631 | -777.658368631004 |
| 16 | 207300 | 207104.769989691 | 195.230010308791 |
| 17 | 2e+05 | 209001.877434223 | -9001.87743422337 |
| 18 | 197700 | 205969.968559552 | -8269.96855955201 |
| 19 | 202200 | 202720.085118221 | -520.085118221497 |
| 20 | 200200 | 203073.195490144 | -2873.19549014387 |
| 21 | 208300 | 202126.491851472 | 6173.50814852817 |
| 22 | 215100 | 205846.131466817 | 9253.86853318344 |
| 23 | 210700 | 211640.291213897 | -940.291213896795 |
| 24 | 208100 | 212584.782816620 | -4484.78281661961 |
| 25 | 209000 | 211560.710212642 | -2560.71021264163 |
| 26 | 211000 | 211266.037434506 | -266.037434506172 |
| 27 | 210200 | 212030.571122817 | -1830.57112281691 |
| 28 | 205500 | 211936.301697029 | -6436.30169702874 |
| 29 | 211400 | 209242.731876676 | 2157.26812332356 |
| 30 | 211700 | 210730.046977676 | 969.95302232419 |
| 31 | 209300 | 211725.823119757 | -2425.82311975677 |
| 32 | 207500 | 210962.667897779 | -3462.66789777894 |
| 33 | 203300 | 209477.612515452 | -6177.61251545162 |
| 34 | 207100 | 206298.484002521 | 801.515997479146 |
| 35 | 206900 | 206450.250445021 | 449.749554979178 |
| 36 | 228700 | 206467.415058247 | 22232.5849417532 |
| 37 | 226900 | 218220.619500855 | 8679.38049914513 |
| 38 | 226500 | 224200.431141404 | 2299.56885859565 |
| 39 | 227100 | 227341.289593690 | -241.28959368958 |
| 40 | 228100 | 229272.915051679 | -1172.91505167884 |
| 41 | 226500 | 230687.525472085 | -4187.52547208508 |
| 42 | 225200 | 230402.518742895 | -5202.51874289528 |
| 43 | 217800 | 229287.723926667 | -11487.7239266667 |
| 44 | 221300 | 224442.149265384 | -3142.14926538398 |
| 45 | 215300 | 223301.171359468 | -8001.17135946755 |
| 46 | 231300 | 219335.716983425 | 11964.2830165752 |
| 47 | 227100 | 225555.82261816 | 1544.17738184004 |
| 48 | 237800 | 226988.896641986 | 10811.1033580144 |
| 49 | 230200 | 233506.621915997 | -3306.62191599744 |
| 50 | 233400 | 233172.008136766 | 227.991863234492 |
| 51 | 231100 | 234512.259203966 | -3412.25920396566 |
| 52 | 237200 | 233911.821093339 | 3288.17890666079 |
| 53 | 243700 | 236680.301695426 | 7019.69830457433 |
| 54 | 239700 | 241677.286004391 | -1977.28600439106 |
| 55 | 248400 | 242316.217681299 | 6083.78231870066 |
| 56 | 241000 | 247152.676905797 | -6152.67690579701 |
| 57 | 254500 | 245826.724009312 | 8673.27599068786 |
| 58 | 242800 | 252050.027843088 | -9250.0278430884 |
| 59 | 268300 | 249230.807433147 | 19069.1925668532 |
| 60 | 253900 | 261001.427118797 | -7101.4271187972 |
| 61 | 262100 | 260003.587023991 | 2096.41297600884 |
| 62 | 264100 | 263466.184074342 | 633.815925657982 |
| 63 | 261000 | 266285.180750871 | -5285.18075087119 |
| 64 | 269300 | 265966.51070273 | 3333.48929726979 |
| 65 | 260400 | 269920.381879722 | -9520.38187972165 |
| 66 | 263200 | 267193.299003204 | -3993.29900320445 |
| 67 | 279200 | 266789.827113818 | 12410.1728861817 |
| 68 | 272200 | 274929.962374402 | -2729.96237440204 |
| 69 | 269200 | 275776.930027378 | -6576.9300273782 |
| 70 | 289600 | 274371.261548532 | 15228.7384514681 |
| 71 | 283200 | 284236.748402727 | -1036.74840272655 |
| 72 | 284300 | 286395.732309285 | -2095.73230928456 |
| 73 | 283000 | 287915.245734581 | -4915.24573458085 |
| 74 | 289100 | 287777.316874837 | 1322.68312516279 |
| 75 | 289600 | 290657.704977912 | -1057.70497791219 |
| 76 | 289100 | 292348.755961102 | -3248.7559611015 |
| 77 | 287400 | 292790.571544784 | -5390.57154478412 |
| 78 | 279600 | 291860.823766810 | -12260.8237668098 |
| 79 | 289300 | 286873.137958660 | 2426.86204134038 |
| 80 | 295000 | 288945.627530775 | 6054.37246922497 |
| 81 | 299600 | 293132.240572845 | 6467.7594271549 |
| 82 | 293600 | 297952.125238165 | -4352.12523816549 |
| 83 | 294400 | 297396.900536047 | -2996.90053604660 |
| 84 | 290200 | 297274.400636552 | -7074.40063655243 |
| 85 | 301000 | 294757.256054051 | 6242.7439459489 |
| 86 | 307900 | 298915.985281291 | 8984.01471870928 |
| 87 | 298800 | 304971.718703352 | -6171.71870335226 |
| 88 | 310300 | 303493.245469428 | 6806.75453057158 |
| 89 | 293900 | 308569.950944454 | -14669.9509444539 |
| 90 | 305000 | 302567.883278873 | 2432.11672112654 |
| 91 | 311300 | 304759.819252368 | 6540.18074763153 |
| 92 | 317300 | 309324.47186188 | 7975.52813812008 |
| 93 | 296200 | 315104.558982385 | -18904.5589823847 |
| 94 | 306800 | 306981.610519747 | -181.610519746842 |
| 95 | 291800 | 307636.126941984 | -15836.1269419839 |
| 96 | 301900 | 299866.002563324 | 2033.997436676 |
| 97 | 314600 | 300623.424005226 | 13976.5759947739 |
| 98 | 321500 | 307936.580874673 | 13563.4191253268 |
| 99 | 329400 | 315976.813263021 | 13423.1867369785 |
| 100 | 311700 | 324862.727441040 | -13162.7274410397 |
| 101 | 309700 | 320373.615742594 | -10673.6157425942 |
| 102 | 306500 | 316328.255066415 | -9828.2550664153 |
| 103 | 307100 | 312012.364493019 | -4912.36449301912 |
| 104 | 301300 | 309670.740437935 | -8370.74043793522 |
| 105 | 292200 | 305137.100384565 | -12937.1003845652 |
| 106 | 310100 | 297581.199271559 | 12518.8007284414 |
| 107 | 316800 | 302826.094191807 | 13973.9058081926 |
| 108 | 284400 | 309703.025603326 | -25303.0256033264 |
| 109 | 284600 | 296422.523272784 | -11822.5232727844 |
| 110 | 301200 | 288667.843983904 | 12532.1560160962 |
| 111 | 287600 | 293197.880862827 | -5597.88086282689 |
| 112 | 314300 | 288836.342297543 | 25463.6577024575 |
| 113 | 298200 | 300786.293532488 | -2586.29353248753 |
| 114 | 299400 | 299392.106848323 | 7.89315167651512 |
| 115 | 301900 | 299216.339936497 | 2683.66006350319 |
| 116 | 265500 | 300478.992865488 | -34978.9928654882 |
| 117 | 287100 | 281685.00458746 | 5414.99541253992 |
| 118 | 274000 | 282222.352367533 | -8222.35236753296 |
| 119 | 290100 | 275799.074180452 | 14300.9258195483 |
| 120 | 263100 | 280920.840921366 | -17820.8409213655 |
| 121 | 245200 | 269752.370082469 | -24552.3700824693 |
| 122 | 258600 | 253756.416127538 | 4843.58387246166 |
| 123 | 259800 | 251889.787069822 | 7910.21293017824 |
| 124 | 269800 | 251999.989339984 | 17800.0106600162 |
| 125 | 274600 | 257961.849697714 | 16638.1503022856 |
| 126 | 274800 | 264508.087346568 | 10291.9126534319 |
| 127 | 271100 | 268773.862532821 | 2326.13746717875 |
| 128 | 257800 | 269457.931924182 | -11657.9319241816 |
| 129 | 290300 | 262785.304368821 | 27514.6956311793 |
| 130 | 262200 | 276371.329263852 | -14171.3292638522 |
| 131 | 270000 | 269424.841731724 | 575.158268276486 |
| 132 | 290600 | 269440.393047023 | 21159.6069529773 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 133 | 280556.520018531 | 260532.393989006 | 300580.646048056 |
| 134 | 281738.920076654 | 259006.735971873 | 304471.104181435 |
| 135 | 282921.320134776 | 257159.897689650 | 308682.742579902 |
| 136 | 284103.720192898 | 255028.651911064 | 313178.788474733 |
| 137 | 285286.120251021 | 252642.955308814 | 317929.285193228 |
| 138 | 286468.520309143 | 250026.804547836 | 322910.23607045 |
| 139 | 287650.920367265 | 247199.408877287 | 328102.431857244 |
| 140 | 288833.320425388 | 244176.265935517 | 333490.374915258 |
| 141 | 290015.72048351 | 240970.030102301 | 339061.410864719 |
| 142 | 291198.120541632 | 237591.177285395 | 344805.063797870 |
| 143 | 292380.520599755 | 234048.503042373 | 350712.538157136 |
| 144 | 293562.920657877 | 230349.493589252 | 356776.347726502 |
