| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.594274923316697 |
| beta | 0.0241142539120687 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 43129 | 38294 | 4835 |
| 4 | 37863 | 39840.6072043033 | -1977.60720430332 |
| 5 | 35953 | 37310.3126917716 | -1357.31269177163 |
| 6 | 29133 | 35129.1926884729 | -5996.19268847293 |
| 7 | 24693 | 30105.3742131567 | -5412.3742131567 |
| 8 | 22205 | 25350.9424083429 | -3145.94240834294 |
| 9 | 21725 | 21898.3112741975 | -173.311274197535 |
| 10 | 27192 | 20209.7566427552 | 6982.24335724478 |
| 11 | 21790 | 22873.6277044578 | -1083.62770445777 |
| 12 | 13253 | 20728.624936573 | -7475.62493657304 |
| 13 | 37702 | 14677.8890875328 | 23024.1109124672 |
| 14 | 30364 | 27082.3283597766 | 3281.67164022343 |
| 15 | 32609 | 27801.3590310311 | 4807.64096896892 |
| 16 | 30212 | 29496.130889681 | 715.86911031901 |
| 17 | 29965 | 28769.5241005066 | 1195.47589949338 |
| 18 | 28352 | 28345.0673622583 | 6.93263774165825 |
| 19 | 25814 | 27214.3885164141 | -1400.38851641414 |
| 20 | 22414 | 25227.3057370168 | -2813.30573701676 |
| 21 | 20506 | 22360.2456169722 | -1854.24561697216 |
| 22 | 28806 | 20036.5586160947 | 8769.44138390525 |
| 23 | 22228 | 24151.9328411376 | -1923.9328411376 |
| 24 | 13971 | 21884.9320059533 | -7913.93200595332 |
| 25 | 36845 | 15944.814302354 | 20900.185697646 |
| 26 | 35338 | 27427.7142232825 | 7910.28577671746 |
| 27 | 35022 | 31304.4006866119 | 3717.5993133881 |
| 28 | 34777 | 32742.7537670117 | 2034.24623298828 |
| 29 | 26887 | 33209.8840829492 | -6322.88408294923 |
| 30 | 23970 | 28619.9713536822 | -4649.97135368221 |
| 31 | 22780 | 24957.5923105977 | -2177.59231059771 |
| 32 | 17351 | 22733.2801549965 | -5382.28015499649 |
| 33 | 21382 | 18527.3716300562 | 2854.62836994377 |
| 34 | 24561 | 19257.3595287044 | 5303.64047129559 |
| 35 | 17409 | 21518.7377067364 | -4109.73770673639 |
| 36 | 11514 | 18127.0867084789 | -6613.08670847889 |
| 37 | 31514 | 13152.989358944 | 18361.010641056 |
| 38 | 27071 | 23283.4941934975 | 3787.50580650251 |
| 39 | 29462 | 24807.6073983452 | 4654.39260165482 |
| 40 | 26105 | 26913.5894433026 | -808.58944330256 |
| 41 | 22397 | 25761.4707643106 | -3364.47076431058 |
| 42 | 23843 | 23042.2413731128 | 800.758626887156 |
| 43 | 21705 | 22809.778627581 | -1104.77862758102 |
| 44 | 18089 | 21429.0708501338 | -3340.0708501338 |
| 45 | 20764 | 18672.1200852636 | 2091.87991473636 |
| 46 | 25316 | 19173.2191222225 | 6142.78087777753 |
| 47 | 17704 | 22169.6961175769 | -4465.69611757692 |
| 48 | 15548 | 18797.8256178986 | -3249.82561789859 |
| 49 | 28029 | 16101.9448518798 | 11927.0551481202 |
| 50 | 29383 | 22596.2243600698 | 6786.77563993018 |
| 51 | 36438 | 26133.0225215417 | 10304.9774784583 |
| 52 | 32034 | 31908.2752534173 | 125.724746582709 |
| 53 | 22679 | 31636.0550466638 | -8957.05504666383 |
| 54 | 24319 | 25837.8075297254 | -1518.80752972539 |
| 55 | 18004 | 24438.1587196976 | -6434.15871969757 |
| 56 | 17537 | 20025.2352698406 | -2488.23526984057 |
| 57 | 20366 | 17921.6175289979 | 2444.38247100207 |
| 58 | 22782 | 18784.3600320324 | 3997.63996796756 |
| 59 | 19169 | 20627.4526801144 | -1458.45268011441 |
| 60 | 13807 | 19207.2259372748 | -5400.22593727484 |
| 61 | 29743 | 15367.1142759812 | 14375.8857240188 |
| 62 | 25591 | 23485.4634342401 | 2105.53656575987 |
| 63 | 29096 | 24342.0251715696 | 4753.9748284304 |
| 64 | 26482 | 26840.6141734947 | -358.614173494661 |
| 65 | 22405 | 26295.7806192307 | -3890.78061923066 |
| 66 | 27044 | 23596.1123036497 | 3447.88769635033 |
| 67 | 17970 | 25307.0404807582 | -7337.0404807582 |
| 68 | 18730 | 20503.6128602842 | -1773.61286028416 |
| 69 | 19684 | 18980.9740096459 | 703.025990354101 |
| 70 | 19785 | 18940.2142334738 | 844.78576652619 |
| 71 | 18479 | 18995.804936797 | -516.804936797049 |
| 72 | 10698 | 18234.8303580307 | -7536.83035803075 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 13194.0241901083 | 447.148586398211 | 25940.8997938184 |
| 74 | 12632.1673052555 | -2289.84902000663 | 27554.1836305177 |
| 75 | 12070.3104204028 | -4832.88156097437 | 28973.5024017799 |
| 76 | 11508.45353555 | -7245.30761967926 | 30262.2146907793 |
| 77 | 10946.5966506972 | -9564.13912603422 | 31457.3324274287 |
| 78 | 10384.7397658445 | -11813.1161899237 | 32582.5957216126 |
| 79 | 9822.88288099172 | -14008.4803663138 | 33654.2461282973 |
| 80 | 9261.02599613895 | -16161.88126574 | 34683.9332580179 |
| 81 | 8699.16911128618 | -18281.982889017 | 35680.3211115893 |
| 82 | 8137.31222643342 | -20375.4157918455 | 36650.0402447123 |
| 83 | 7575.45534158065 | -22447.3732552716 | 37598.2839384329 |
| 84 | 7013.59845672789 | -24502.0013783625 | 38529.1982918183 |
