| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.289888508389799 |
| beta | 0.114439504399955 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 860 | 260 | 600 |
| 4 | 440 | 33.8379233727017 | 406.162076627298 |
| 5 | 1480 | -235.04123581151 | 1715.04123581151 |
| 6 | 1620 | -67.5953941399537 | 1687.59539413995 |
| 7 | 1240 | 147.879679677581 | 1092.12032032242 |
| 8 | 1440 | 226.964133529769 | 1213.03586647023 |
| 9 | 1540 | 381.342712296827 | 1158.65728770317 |
| 10 | 860 | 558.39567069122 | 301.60432930878 |
| 11 | 1180 | 497.004457674087 | 682.995542325913 |
| 12 | 1180 | 568.832344838505 | 611.167655161495 |
| 13 | 1480 | 640.113454849628 | 839.886545150372 |
| 14 | 940 | 805.560524564263 | 134.439475435737 |
| 15 | 1300 | 770.966584384892 | 529.033415615108 |
| 16 | 860 | 868.311416332082 | -8.31141633208244 |
| 17 | 1220 | 809.610427734754 | 410.389572265246 |
| 18 | 2180 | 885.90059399005 | 1294.09940600995 |
| 19 | 940 | 1261.29944178067 | -321.299441780672 |
| 20 | 920 | 1157.75371542899 | -237.753715428989 |
| 21 | 2060 | 1070.53952754675 | 989.460472453253 |
| 22 | 1160 | 1371.90568166053 | -211.905681660533 |
| 23 | 980 | 1317.97968649759 | -337.979686497589 |
| 24 | 1020 | 1216.29391235579 | -196.293912355791 |
| 25 | 740 | 1149.16922482925 | -409.169224829248 |
| 26 | 720 | 1006.76036534666 | -286.760365346658 |
| 27 | 1340 | 890.323239254839 | 449.676760745161 |
| 28 | 1140 | 1002.28866355835 | 137.711336441648 |
| 29 | 1200 | 1028.38742823311 | 171.612571766892 |
| 30 | 1900 | 1070.00696655833 | 829.993033441665 |
| 31 | 1020 | 1330.01820246002 | -310.018202460022 |
| 32 | 2140 | 1249.26852163573 | 890.731478364267 |
| 33 | 2020 | 1546.15212184431 | 473.84787815569 |
| 34 | 1340 | 1737.9057169078 | -397.905716907796 |
| 35 | 1400 | 1663.74756092984 | -263.747560929836 |
| 36 | 2320 | 1619.73056719729 | 700.269432802707 |
| 37 | 1280 | 1878.40224825391 | -598.402248253908 |
| 38 | 1160 | 1740.75211939255 | -580.752119392554 |
| 39 | 2120 | 1588.95228433238 | 531.04771566762 |
| 40 | 1540 | 1777.06779226851 | -237.067792268509 |
| 41 | 2400 | 1734.65078910614 | 665.349210893856 |
| 42 | 1420 | 1975.90686356064 | -555.906863560644 |
| 43 | 1480 | 1844.69279434208 | -364.692794342082 |
| 44 | 3380 | 1756.81091339767 | 1623.18908660233 |
| 45 | 1880 | 2299.04195227264 | -419.041952272642 |
| 46 | 2200 | 2235.35209160691 | -35.3520916069101 |
| 47 | 1980 | 2281.7167173983 | -301.716717398302 |
| 48 | 1340 | 2240.85593838189 | -900.855938381889 |
| 49 | 1960 | 1996.42596127182 | -36.4259612718167 |
| 50 | 1340 | 2001.37588059706 | -661.375880597057 |
| 51 | 3300 | 1803.21905539584 | 1496.78094460416 |
| 52 | 1780 | 2280.34234778239 | -500.342347782395 |
| 53 | 2040 | 2161.92384196877 | -121.923841968773 |
| 54 | 4460 | 2149.15972580996 | 2310.84027419004 |
| 55 | 800 | 2918.28739699496 | -2118.28739699496 |
| 56 | 1420 | 2333.18831106783 | -913.188311067827 |
| 57 | 1960 | 2067.13885588712 | -107.138855887117 |
| 58 | 1940 | 2031.19957585138 | -91.199575851382 |
| 59 | 1880 | 1996.85539161351 | -116.855391613514 |
| 60 | 940 | 1951.19723897621 | -1011.19723897621 |
| 61 | 1880 | 1612.73349997212 | 267.266500027882 |
| 62 | 720 | 1653.74819251688 | -933.748192516883 |
| 63 | 1660 | 1315.62571370853 | 344.374286291474 |
| 64 | 4260 | 1359.44076650338 | 2900.55923349662 |
| 65 | 2540 | 2240.4896351849 | 299.510364815095 |
| 66 | 2320 | 2377.46049274576 | -57.4604927457635 |
| 67 | 2860 | 2409.04336642007 | 450.956633579929 |
| 68 | 5880 | 2602.97087226825 | 3277.02912773175 |
| 69 | 3140 | 3724.85876717843 | -584.85876717843 |
| 70 | 4440 | 3707.82722814022 | 732.172771859783 |
| 71 | 3600 | 4096.87760748362 | -496.877607483615 |
| 72 | 2920 | 4113.15664143392 | -1193.15664143392 |
| 73 | 2260 | 3888.00977448011 | -1628.00977448011 |
| 74 | 3740 | 3482.79525006083 | 257.204749939174 |
| 75 | 3380 | 3632.61544182593 | -252.615441825932 |
| 76 | 4560 | 3626.26417785471 | 933.735822145295 |
| 77 | 3320 | 3994.79891541621 | -674.798915416205 |
| 78 | 4760 | 3874.65166750184 | 885.348332498164 |
| 79 | 4000 | 4236.14434102874 | -236.144341028737 |
| 80 | 4840 | 4264.69515924031 | 575.304840759692 |
| 81 | 6160 | 4547.56133430259 | 1612.43866569741 |
| 82 | 3440 | 5184.57285141535 | -1744.57285141535 |
| 83 | 3280 | 4790.54963104114 | -1510.54963104114 |
| 84 | 2000 | 4414.25502628703 | -2414.25502628703 |
| 85 | 3600 | 3695.8944329449 | -95.8944329448973 |
| 86 | 4320 | 3646.41866513728 | 673.581334862719 |
| 87 | 3480 | 3842.35093674628 | -362.350936746283 |
| 88 | 5620 | 3725.95746472763 | 1894.04253527237 |
| 89 | 4200 | 4326.50081830395 | -126.500818303949 |
| 90 | 8540 | 4337.11524662835 | 4202.88475337165 |
| 91 | 3800 | 5742.19822976156 | -1942.19822976156 |
| 92 | 5380 | 5301.4604347471 | 78.5395652529041 |
| 93 | 5140 | 5449.11683127422 | -309.116831274218 |
| 94 | 2720 | 5474.14123595769 | -2754.14123595769 |
| 95 | 3120 | 4699.01336135548 | -1579.01336135548 |
| 96 | 3440 | 4212.15826330172 | -772.158263301721 |
| 97 | 5020 | 3933.58506950974 | 1086.41493049026 |
| 98 | 5800 | 4229.83237298603 | 1570.16762701397 |
| 99 | 2260 | 4718.40385971581 | -2458.40385971581 |
| 100 | 5800 | 3957.58196349732 | 1842.41803650268 |
| 101 | 5660 | 4504.64057215839 | 1155.35942784161 |
| 102 | 4880 | 4890.85748479038 | -10.8574847903792 |
| 103 | 3440 | 4938.64132238991 | -1498.64132238991 |
| 104 | 5900 | 4505.41675037256 | 1394.58324962744 |
| 105 | 5960 | 4957.16961104436 | 1002.83038895564 |
| 106 | 5520 | 5328.6264138066 | 191.373586193397 |
| 107 | 5920 | 5471.19997517339 | 448.800024826613 |
| 108 | 3840 | 5703.28730779671 | -1863.28730779671 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 5203.31310000769 | 2950.17046402319 | 7456.4557359922 |
| 110 | 5243.48447057751 | 2875.67936004454 | 7611.28958111049 |
| 111 | 5283.65584114733 | 2783.5046894323 | 7783.80699286236 |
| 112 | 5323.82721171715 | 2674.18756016471 | 7973.46686326958 |
| 113 | 5363.99858228696 | 2548.47396482102 | 8179.52319975291 |
| 114 | 5404.16995285678 | 2407.22219355644 | 8401.11771215713 |
| 115 | 5444.3413234266 | 2251.33089289953 | 8637.35175395367 |
| 116 | 5484.51269399642 | 2081.68851265606 | 8887.33687533677 |
| 117 | 5524.68406456624 | 1899.14126436719 | 9150.22686476528 |
| 118 | 5564.85543513605 | 1704.47533785857 | 9425.23553241353 |
| 119 | 5605.02680570587 | 1498.4091667751 | 9711.64444463665 |
| 120 | 5645.19817627569 | 1281.59224402666 | 10008.8041085247 |
