| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.999933893038648 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 2552 | 3035 | -483 |
| 3 | 2704 | 2552.03192966233 | 151.968070337667 |
| 4 | 2554 | 2703.98995385265 | -149.989953852647 |
| 5 | 2014 | 2554.00991538008 | -540.009915380082 |
| 6 | 1655 | 2014.03569841461 | -359.035698414606 |
| 7 | 1721 | 1655.02373475904 | 65.9762652409611 |
| 8 | 1524 | 1720.99563850958 | -196.995638509584 |
| 9 | 1596 | 1524.01302278306 | 71.9869772169386 |
| 10 | 2074 | 1595.99524115968 | 478.004758840321 |
| 11 | 2199 | 2073.96840055788 | 125.031599442119 |
| 12 | 2512 | 2198.99173454089 | 313.008265459112 |
| 13 | 2933 | 2511.97930797469 | 421.020692025308 |
| 14 | 2889 | 2932.97216760138 | -43.9721676013837 |
| 15 | 2938 | 2889.00290686638 | 48.9970931336156 |
| 16 | 2497 | 2937.99676095106 | -440.996760951058 |
| 17 | 1870 | 2497.02915295583 | -627.029152955832 |
| 18 | 1726 | 1870.04145099198 | -144.041450991981 |
| 19 | 1607 | 1726.00952214263 | -119.009522142634 |
| 20 | 1545 | 1607.00786735788 | -62.0078673578807 |
| 21 | 1396 | 1545.00409915169 | -149.004099151691 |
| 22 | 1787 | 1396.00985020822 | 390.990149791776 |
| 23 | 2076 | 1786.97415282928 | 289.025847170721 |
| 24 | 2837 | 2075.98089337949 | 761.019106620508 |
| 25 | 2787 | 2836.94969133933 | -49.9496913393309 |
| 26 | 3891 | 2787.00330202231 | 1103.99669797769 |
| 27 | 3179 | 3890.92701813295 | -711.927018132954 |
| 28 | 2011 | 3179.04706333187 | -1168.04706333187 |
| 29 | 1636 | 2011.07721604207 | -375.077216042073 |
| 30 | 1580 | 1636.02479521502 | -56.0247952150248 |
| 31 | 1489 | 1580.00370362897 | -91.0037036289721 |
| 32 | 1300 | 1489.00601597832 | -189.006015978319 |
| 33 | 1356 | 1300.01249461339 | 55.9875053866062 |
| 34 | 1653 | 1355.99629883615 | 297.003701163855 |
| 35 | 2013 | 1652.98036598781 | 360.019634012194 |
| 36 | 2823 | 2012.97620019597 | 810.023799804032 |
| 37 | 3102 | 2822.94645178797 | 279.053548212028 |
| 38 | 2294 | 3101.98155261787 | -807.981552617873 |
| 39 | 2385 | 2294.05341320527 | 90.9465867947279 |
| 40 | 2444 | 2384.9939877975 | 59.0060122024984 |
| 41 | 1748 | 2443.99609929183 | -695.996099291832 |
| 42 | 1554 | 1748.04601018724 | -194.046010187237 |
| 43 | 1498 | 1554.0128277921 | -56.0128277920958 |
| 44 | 1361 | 1498.00370283784 | -137.003702837842 |
| 45 | 1346 | 1361.00905689849 | -15.0090568984886 |
| 46 | 1564 | 1346.00099220314 | 217.999007796856 |
| 47 | 1640 | 1563.98558874802 | 76.0144112519831 |
| 48 | 2293 | 1639.99497491825 | 653.005025081747 |
| 49 | 2815 | 2292.95683182204 | 522.043168177956 |
| 50 | 3137 | 2814.96548931246 | 322.034510687542 |
| 51 | 2679 | 3136.97871127705 | -457.978711277048 |
| 52 | 1969 | 2679.03027558097 | -710.030275580967 |
| 53 | 1870 | 1969.04693794399 | -99.0469379439864 |
| 54 | 1633 | 1870.0065476921 | -237.006547692099 |
| 55 | 1529 | 1633.01566778269 | -104.015667782688 |
| 56 | 1366 | 1529.00687615973 | -163.00687615973 |
| 57 | 1357 | 1366.01077588926 | -9.01077588926228 |
| 58 | 1570 | 1357.00059567501 | 212.999404324986 |
| 59 | 1535 | 1569.98591925661 | -34.9859192566105 |
| 60 | 2491 | 1535.00231281281 | 955.997687187188 |
| 61 | 3084 | 2490.93680189784 | 593.063198102159 |
| 62 | 2605 | 3083.96079439408 | -478.960794394084 |
| 63 | 2573 | 2605.03166264272 | -32.0316626427243 |
| 64 | 2143 | 2573.00211751588 | -430.002117515884 |
| 65 | 1693 | 2143.02842613336 | -450.028426133364 |
| 66 | 1504 | 1693.02975001177 | -189.029750011774 |
| 67 | 1461 | 1504.01249618238 | -43.0124961823783 |
| 68 | 1354 | 1461.00284342542 | -107.002843425423 |
| 69 | 1333 | 1354.00707363283 | -21.0070736328348 |
| 70 | 1492 | 1333.0013887138 | 158.998611286195 |
| 71 | 1781 | 1491.98948908495 | 289.010510915051 |
| 72 | 1915 | 1780.98089439332 | 134.019105606675 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 1914.99114040417 | 1105.46538031072 | 2724.51690049761 |
| 74 | 1914.99114040417 | 770.186671787354 | 3059.79560902098 |
| 75 | 1914.99114040417 | 512.913187337658 | 3317.06909347067 |
| 76 | 1914.99114040417 | 296.019892486119 | 3533.96238832221 |
| 77 | 1914.99114040417 | 104.932241722837 | 3725.05003908549 |
| 78 | 1914.99114040417 | -67.824668440825 | 3897.80694924916 |
| 79 | 1914.99114040417 | -226.691340010651 | 4056.67362081898 |
| 80 | 1914.99114040417 | -374.561034591178 | 4204.54331539951 |
| 81 | 1914.99114040417 | -513.443432965284 | 4343.42571377361 |
| 82 | 1914.99114040417 | -644.80177939349 | 4474.78406020182 |
| 83 | 1914.99114040417 | -769.740709773121 | 4599.72299058145 |
| 84 | 1914.99114040417 | -889.118419236203 | 4719.10070004453 |
