| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 108.5 | 108.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 112.3 | 112.107990567052 | 0.299520333464632 | 0.19200943294768 | 0.234351320027692 |
| 3 | 116.6 | 116.409030079065 | 0.887614852216326 | 0.190969920935322 | 0.406095837952912 |
| 4 | 115.5 | 115.308612515095 | 0.506970831336137 | 0.191387484905296 | -0.196432614080234 |
| 5 | 120.1 | 119.909283573374 | 1.40574594768484 | 0.190716426625717 | 0.397420833309356 |
| 6 | 132.9 | 132.710710205320 | 4.09845149806786 | 0.189289794679854 | 1.09442172247909 |
| 7 | 128.1 | 127.909870095453 | 1.90980717082471 | 0.190129904547208 | -0.849289434139052 |
| 8 | 129.3 | 129.109819929010 | 1.73136342564871 | 0.19018007098989 | -0.067500890602942 |
| 9 | 132.5 | 132.309897317013 | 2.10503379961536 | 0.190102682987361 | 0.139380176174126 |
| 10 | 131 | 130.809756006955 | 1.18172212395556 | 0.190243993044685 | -0.341747259421099 |
| 11 | 124.9 | 124.709543947020 | -0.690029537920745 | 0.190456052980489 | -0.689855260765352 |
| 12 | 120.8 | 120.609470218456 | -1.5683058003174 | 0.190529781543639 | -0.322941913658471 |
| 13 | 122 | 122.651708053429 | -0.67070203984092 | -0.651708053428792 | 0.39704415205166 |
| 14 | 122.1 | 122.039447201094 | -0.656336288331872 | 0.0605527989058466 | 0.00463021949165108 |
| 15 | 127.4 | 127.346371066669 | 0.885032913320507 | 0.0536289333313029 | 0.563633530939744 |
| 16 | 135.2 | 135.152331300144 | 2.67264666215725 | 0.0476686998559181 | 0.654463099242995 |
| 17 | 137.3 | 137.251965243614 | 2.52469290278928 | 0.0480347563857951 | -0.0542031281548969 |
| 18 | 135 | 134.949677716785 | 1.27853089963487 | 0.0503222832147156 | -0.456699678648379 |
| 19 | 136 | 135.949579760849 | 1.20660186550826 | 0.0504202391509342 | -0.0263661848720782 |
| 20 | 138.4 | 138.349891088549 | 1.51476131455073 | 0.0501089114514825 | 0.112970838502852 |
| 21 | 134.7 | 134.648881952614 | 0.168274310860272 | 0.0511180473862879 | -0.49365021666894 |
| 22 | 138.4 | 138.349388930855 | 1.08016412983750 | 0.0506110691450223 | 0.334328967300456 |
| 23 | 133.9 | 133.848794722423 | -0.360608970948542 | 0.0512052775769712 | -0.528244758194134 |
| 24 | 133.6 | 133.548799510041 | -0.344960143717595 | 0.0512004899585639 | 0.00573754075203173 |
| 25 | 141.2 | 140.408161017566 | 1.48702368351126 | 0.79183898243404 | 0.736730848354184 |
| 26 | 151.8 | 151.730651166420 | 3.94672563081249 | 0.0693488335802398 | 0.837608783247037 |
| 27 | 155.4 | 155.3303832955 | 3.85704099781783 | 0.0696167044999834 | -0.0328123753762335 |
| 28 | 156.6 | 156.528861133309 | 3.17032954811392 | 0.0711388666909328 | -0.251484976370749 |
| 29 | 161.6 | 161.529638533126 | 3.64299402716278 | 0.0703614668742037 | 0.173189197355598 |
| 30 | 160.7 | 160.628206806302 | 2.46967955106439 | 0.0717931936984147 | -0.430040013420672 |
| 31 | 156 | 155.926530764534 | 0.618226640712535 | 0.073469235465853 | -0.67869832266883 |
| 32 | 159.5 | 159.427030480674 | 1.36234170148878 | 0.0729695193255008 | 0.272798850669425 |
| 33 | 168.7 | 168.628038652596 | 3.38605334067904 | 0.0719613474040545 | 0.741945776264576 |
| 34 | 169.9 | 169.827830060818 | 2.82161933494502 | 0.0721699391821734 | -0.206941845093007 |
| 35 | 169.9 | 169.827630339277 | 2.0930927609312 | 0.0723696607226506 | -0.267108022297403 |
| 36 | 185.9 | 185.828360549885 | 5.68375487178261 | 0.0716394501150607 | 1.31649613388155 |
| 37 | 190.8 | 191.579724418513 | 5.70103908380125 | -0.779724418513252 | 0.00674254824636057 |
| 38 | 195.8 | 195.745383403916 | 5.31380287164402 | 0.054616596083769 | -0.134786750952614 |
| 39 | 211.9 | 211.851555468646 | 8.10246397156012 | 0.0484445313535728 | 1.02083549291497 |
| 40 | 227.1 | 227.054567436321 | 9.93634429333901 | 0.0454325636789757 | 0.67180158286185 |
| 41 | 251.3 | 251.259056998838 | 13.6205930622158 | 0.0409430011624472 | 1.35017346216786 |
| 42 | 256.7 | 256.657137735176 | 11.4976355660279 | 0.0428622648238606 | -0.778172340319613 |
| 43 | 251.9 | 251.854315262646 | 7.28921867515689 | 0.0456847373538225 | -1.54278319793577 |
| 44 | 251.2 | 251.153288922094 | 5.22633731974211 | 0.0467110779061335 | -0.756290805500648 |
| 45 | 270.3 | 270.254611024232 | 8.80852017045513 | 0.0453889757680056 | 1.31334238926104 |
| 46 | 267.2 | 267.153769200972 | 5.73378946609652 | 0.0462307990276661 | -1.12731660280892 |
| 47 | 243 | 242.952199505244 | -1.99491949928063 | 0.0478004947564810 | -2.83367806576953 |
| 48 | 229.9 | 229.851767521988 | -4.86216410919509 | 0.0482324780116287 | -1.05126185453105 |
| 49 | 187.2 | 190.846821033877 | -13.6130873322921 | -3.64682103387687 | -3.36178761805418 |
| 50 | 178.2 | 177.863188963842 | -13.4535500646630 | 0.336811036157823 | 0.0561944119767591 |
| 51 | 175.2 | 174.867937333590 | -10.7516442018882 | 0.332062666410322 | 0.989400902380608 |
| 52 | 192.4 | 192.077353771140 | -3.53053077142593 | 0.322646228859826 | 2.64577173900073 |
| 53 | 187 | 186.676886637842 | -4.01336692661487 | 0.323113362157837 | -0.176963386407946 |
| 54 | 184 | 183.677074463347 | -3.75167838099818 | 0.322925536653252 | 0.0959274445987369 |
| 55 | 194.1 | 193.778978905259 | -0.174954146833104 | 0.321021094741323 | 1.31124736495429 |
| 56 | 212.7 | 212.380893727223 | 4.67282383617023 | 0.319106272777386 | 1.77731521856663 |
| 57 | 217.5 | 217.180903348730 | 4.70566049649699 | 0.319096651270350 | 0.0120390754466365 |
| 58 | 200.5 | 200.179685200108 | -0.898627503394373 | 0.320314799892371 | -2.0547615681818 |
| 59 | 205.9 | 205.579947419136 | 0.727633176955665 | 0.320052580863928 | 0.596258950010388 |
| 60 | 196.5 | 196.179634654342 | -1.88723883633122 | 0.320365345657877 | -0.958732070721639 |
| 61 | 206.3 | 208.772903583346 | 1.82976239899704 | -2.47290358334623 | 1.41479136733123 |
