| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 101.3 | 101.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 106.3 | 104.214006471146 | 0.0950062801624158 | 2.08599352885424 | 0.447447058145163 |
| 3 | 94 | 99.39966707179 | -0.207922227625704 | -5.39966707179006 | -0.687108020950798 |
| 4 | 102.8 | 100.196558655041 | -0.157342240981717 | 2.6034413449593 | 0.175345760322466 |
| 5 | 102 | 101.199747263407 | -0.119201453808518 | 0.80025273659299 | 0.219498693200026 |
| 6 | 105.1 | 103.223536569398 | -0.071129232488973 | 1.87646343060191 | 0.410901272935821 |
| 7 | 92.4 | 98.8267283887178 | -0.152804901053942 | -6.42672838871779 | -0.829283867924895 |
| 8 | 81.4 | 89.8272510505545 | -0.320209529801329 | -8.42725105055453 | -1.69234534330147 |
| 9 | 105.8 | 94.8965094344412 | -0.211772494102814 | 10.9034905655588 | 1.02868501165805 |
| 10 | 120.3 | 107.755246854008 | 0.0672674423526715 | 12.5447531459919 | 2.49028569073384 |
| 11 | 100.7 | 107.739044343927 | 0.0654049630693266 | -7.03904434392734 | -0.0158819431339166 |
| 12 | 88.8 | 99.1136547833746 | -0.134930985717269 | -10.3136547833746 | -1.65182396586731 |
| 13 | 94.3 | 95.1593102063048 | -0.100821345736164 | -0.859310206304814 | -0.768141142536768 |
| 14 | 99.9 | 94.2922916800573 | -0.107430624730257 | 5.60770831994272 | -0.149414461653315 |
| 15 | 103.4 | 101.257596755986 | 0.101809909703785 | 2.14240324401429 | 1.25307160113486 |
| 16 | 103.3 | 102.812735761520 | 0.155633044279499 | 0.487264238480176 | 0.256924680209239 |
| 17 | 98.8 | 100.842881384158 | 0.0800696892956578 | -2.04288138415795 | -0.389731720871818 |
| 18 | 104.2 | 99.2331759824747 | 0.0272720872041723 | 4.96682401752527 | -0.316655341379635 |
| 19 | 91.2 | 96.6569042093132 | -0.045195344353165 | -5.45690420931323 | -0.491006386506582 |
| 20 | 74.7 | 92.5488505158513 | -0.151723341657588 | -17.8488505158513 | -0.766641461541962 |
| 21 | 108.5 | 96.816096188491 | -0.0376845999406179 | 11.6839038115089 | 0.833056577762395 |
| 22 | 114.5 | 99.0681666426773 | 0.0207694749683654 | 15.4318333573227 | 0.430987608964762 |
| 23 | 96.9 | 99.198904759861 | 0.0234471925796431 | -2.29890475986105 | 0.0206575619472181 |
| 24 | 89.6 | 98.7295493342962 | 0.0126902555790541 | -9.1295493342962 | -0.0926258204521036 |
| 25 | 97.1 | 98.943294177289 | 0.0165901977284168 | -1.84329417728896 | 0.038099331235521 |
| 26 | 100.3 | 99.0443111130218 | 0.0185110505590353 | 1.25568888697815 | 0.0158621389810876 |
| 27 | 122.6 | 108.782264055651 | 0.299272024976968 | 13.8177359443491 | 1.77836717360949 |
| 28 | 115.4 | 112.818349641899 | 0.423256070242572 | 2.58165035810096 | 0.676506629766847 |
| 29 | 109 | 112.161003050230 | 0.386085485094583 | -3.16100305022984 | -0.197595747620276 |
| 30 | 129.1 | 116.502531435913 | 0.518716436128943 | 12.5974685640872 | 0.732886931818238 |
| 31 | 102.8 | 113.393277218075 | 0.402672327916866 | -10.5932772180748 | -0.67696424561187 |
| 32 | 96.2 | 114.424587803287 | 0.421916798725934 | -18.2245878032866 | 0.117499545515079 |
| 33 | 127.7 | 115.899871772494 | 0.453067578244399 | 11.8001282275059 | 0.1967132827489 |
| 34 | 128.9 | 115.081534023519 | 0.41662603306461 | 13.8184659764814 | -0.237021438382784 |
| 35 | 126.5 | 120.896499954458 | 0.566297849715985 | 5.60350004554206 | 1.00525025425144 |
| 36 | 119.8 | 126.094893672473 | 0.691244340258048 | -6.29489367247338 | 0.863372346335079 |
| 37 | 113.2 | 123.666936831546 | 0.606847619849919 | -10.4669368315465 | -0.582139215172333 |
| 38 | 114.1 | 121.494169957612 | 0.52752565619629 | -7.39416995761165 | -0.516345059193209 |
| 39 | 134.1 | 121.693581092896 | 0.517413522755159 | 12.4064189071039 | -0.060334709064372 |
| 40 | 130 | 124.484182974030 | 0.591897862502222 | 5.51581702596952 | 0.415524874777907 |
| 41 | 121.8 | 126.017800289786 | 0.62365598237389 | -4.21780028978636 | 0.17262975603495 |
| 42 | 132.1 | 122.782956564835 | 0.493586555160052 | 9.31704343516464 | -0.712155485370253 |
| 43 | 105.3 | 119.543864975955 | 0.370029835388014 | -14.2438649759546 | -0.692388051535697 |
| 44 | 103 | 120.149756103951 | 0.377643836973305 | -17.1497561039512 | 0.04381539213603 |
| 45 | 117.1 | 114.288418315698 | 0.181280366013081 | 2.81158168430225 | -1.15798088991910 |
| 46 | 126.3 | 114.129656116889 | 0.170818395581281 | 12.1703438831107 | -0.0630240826391854 |
| 47 | 138.1 | 122.992539919784 | 0.43360121166405 | 15.1074600802158 | 1.61023620003582 |
| 48 | 119.5 | 125.014625250710 | 0.481265094280177 | -5.5146252507102 | 0.294501426267522 |
| 49 | 138 | 135.197080484896 | 0.77469200579795 | 2.80291951510445 | 1.79917344278048 |
| 50 | 135.5 | 141.005296619259 | 0.9306340175301 | -5.50529661925949 | 0.931172358834538 |
| 51 | 178.6 | 154.105898756442 | 1.31980625980542 | 24.4941012435584 | 2.24070443832966 |
| 52 | 162.2 | 157.962644092120 | 1.4032112657594 | 4.23735590788031 | 0.465623035106344 |
| 53 | 176.9 | 167.995533775593 | 1.69152201597383 | 8.9044662244071 | 1.58528662520268 |
| 54 | 204.9 | 181.476683682301 | 2.08659463918171 | 23.4233163176987 | 2.17334989709797 |
| 55 | 132.2 | 168.679508222397 | 1.59142105448855 | -36.479508222397 | -2.75211569125429 |
| 56 | 142.5 | 161.396813711404 | 1.30000795767089 | -18.8968137114036 | -1.64250237419826 |
| 57 | 164.3 | 161.439682790546 | 1.25933029014661 | 2.86031720945422 | -0.232522813337484 |
| 58 | 174.9 | 165.096427260474 | 1.33588073241949 | 9.80357273952622 | 0.442988044003135 |
| 59 | 175.4 | 165.718906408964 | 1.31330901105027 | 9.6810935910357 | -0.131793433990577 |
| 60 | 143 | 162.03659300682 | 1.15568239395441 | -19.0365930068201 | -0.923432101039032 |
