| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 8 | 8.00127622385071 | -0.198829249170883 | -0.00127622385071316 | -0.598073118941194 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.50424229625797 | -0.491527403456245 | -0.00424229625796986 | -0.885821392637681 |
| 4 | 6.8 | 6.80220081746625 | -0.697066633095816 | -0.00220081746624831 | -0.616165908322563 |
| 5 | 6.5 | 6.4930882979517 | -0.318123204097619 | 0.0069117020482963 | 1.13637371559309 |
| 6 | 6.6 | 6.59498743817802 | 0.0921636486981209 | 0.00501256182198041 | 1.23035153817779 |
| 7 | 7.6 | 7.58747819215078 | 0.971613735735346 | 0.0125218078492171 | 2.63725884597568 |
| 8 | 8 | 8.01242865401694 | 0.437626846235962 | -0.0124286540169404 | -1.60129798047321 |
| 9 | 8.1 | 8.10340957322805 | 0.0990190273909277 | -0.00340957322805405 | -1.01540323736988 |
| 10 | 7.7 | 7.7065893312022 | -0.385322600241157 | -0.00658933120220374 | -1.45242380512738 |
| 11 | 7.5 | 7.49533324515493 | -0.215292384816175 | 0.00466675484507046 | 0.509879635333864 |
| 12 | 7.6 | 7.5957828454469 | 0.0931280948839882 | 0.00421715455310197 | 0.924878683038533 |
| 13 | 7.8 | 7.79928214402348 | 0.200924128988881 | 0.000717855976524546 | 0.323324515103376 |
| 14 | 7.8 | 7.80444061393912 | 0.00964705742520267 | -0.0044406139391238 | -0.574999884941081 |
| 15 | 7.8 | 7.79444672469474 | -0.00925141985035046 | 0.00555327530525888 | -0.0570613182610372 |
| 16 | 7.5 | 7.51435346712922 | -0.269238884920420 | -0.0143534671292197 | -0.77916967657956 |
| 17 | 7.5 | 7.48010809146576 | -0.0436389865141169 | 0.0198919085342391 | 0.676552831522696 |
| 18 | 7.1 | 7.13215460746487 | -0.335818745667748 | -0.0321546074648676 | -0.876175770310857 |
| 19 | 7.5 | 7.45861478957107 | 0.300044902656793 | 0.0413852104289313 | 1.90680213012571 |
| 20 | 7.5 | 7.52253000560251 | 0.0733345084034039 | -0.0225300056025130 | -0.67984982701803 |
| 21 | 7.6 | 7.58931255003648 | 0.0670438990805684 | 0.0106874499635243 | -0.0188640212074657 |
| 22 | 7.7 | 7.70467232543183 | 0.113432482805563 | -0.00467232543183108 | 0.139108182310275 |
| 23 | 7.7 | 7.70394827098096 | 0.00382924482361731 | -0.00394827098095685 | -0.328673714573005 |
| 24 | 7.9 | 7.89502798938089 | 0.183609644851946 | 0.00497201061911532 | 0.539118450313555 |
| 25 | 8.1 | 8.09550708102145 | 0.199803675938381 | 0.00449291897854567 | 0.0485739614297106 |
| 26 | 8.2 | 8.21278592288984 | 0.120544419390146 | -0.0127859228898438 | -0.238031560638894 |
| 27 | 8.2 | 8.18338269996662 | -0.0219584806524405 | 0.0166173000333839 | -0.429224444701056 |
| 28 | 8.2 | 8.22861227231093 | 0.0418715276638166 | -0.0286122723109273 | 0.191300548247779 |
| 29 | 7.9 | 7.86607042662083 | -0.342220157664370 | 0.0339295733791663 | -1.15186763919896 |
| 30 | 7.3 | 7.36709203350069 | -0.49112352211264 | -0.0670920335006883 | -0.446524587838063 |
| 31 | 6.9 | 6.84864872298369 | -0.517074370481081 | 0.0513512770163114 | -0.0778203766124455 |
| 32 | 6.6 | 6.6114610289264 | -0.251214990431378 | -0.0114610289263976 | 0.797248188001727 |
| 33 | 6.7 | 6.68509100878294 | 0.0573492672457816 | 0.0149089912170651 | 0.925309847789275 |
| 34 | 6.9 | 6.89303681878207 | 0.200398378425854 | 0.0069631812179319 | 0.428969809946214 |
| 35 | 7 | 7.01469536849558 | 0.125604268032079 | -0.0146953684955780 | -0.224289628416851 |
| 36 | 7.1 | 7.09862466899692 | 0.0860185355373725 | 0.00137533100307608 | -0.118708251487739 |
| 37 | 7.2 | 7.1939345874963 | 0.0948428468455854 | 0.00606541250370479 | 0.0264700572836137 |
| 38 | 7.1 | 7.10911781559053 | -0.0758552673534938 | -0.0091178155905304 | -0.512242098679318 |
| 39 | 6.9 | 6.90130145026726 | -0.200379065112696 | -0.00130145026726123 | -0.374438460525143 |
| 40 | 7 | 7.00139617516327 | 0.0833206926798958 | -0.00139617516327404 | 0.85041307684321 |
| 41 | 6.8 | 6.77256789963946 | -0.211245394818097 | 0.0274321003605378 | -0.88335907896211 |
| 42 | 6.4 | 6.46170274177889 | -0.305269897498116 | -0.0617027417788883 | -0.281957637067885 |
| 43 | 6.7 | 6.63508630895394 | 0.146505530258980 | 0.0649136910460583 | 1.35476580623548 |
| 44 | 6.6 | 6.63099025249448 | 0.00436244281857145 | -0.0309902524944815 | -0.426252887802726 |
| 45 | 6.4 | 6.40375519643981 | -0.214226655247958 | -0.00375519643980783 | -0.655496042739364 |
| 46 | 6.3 | 6.28485310606508 | -0.124255940044097 | 0.0151468939349188 | 0.269800492435974 |
| 47 | 6.2 | 6.21010238213756 | -0.077530824101797 | -0.0101023821375598 | 0.140117581690292 |
| 48 | 6.5 | 6.49191442191504 | 0.26161845268534 | 0.00808557808496397 | 1.01702941557067 |
| 49 | 6.8 | 6.78757128238072 | 0.293740538137197 | 0.0124287176192758 | 0.0963598020491305 |
| 50 | 6.8 | 6.8048908537256 | 0.0328243948144305 | -0.00489085372559283 | -0.782622561453217 |
| 51 | 6.4 | 6.44274390155025 | -0.338339181198148 | -0.0427439015502456 | -1.11493471421101 |
| 52 | 6.1 | 6.08404278979504 | -0.357490041728859 | 0.0159572102049574 | -0.0574170355480497 |
| 53 | 5.8 | 5.75080416684335 | -0.334695040411939 | 0.0491958331566479 | 0.0683555586832608 |
| 54 | 6.1 | 6.16511387239222 | 0.369442766061553 | -0.0651138723922228 | 2.11156204883655 |
| 55 | 7.2 | 7.11400569602106 | 0.914196608647263 | 0.085994303978942 | 1.63358397877916 |
| 56 | 7.3 | 7.34637447608622 | 0.273200751966980 | -0.0463744760862209 | -1.92219252827409 |
| 57 | 6.9 | 6.9333497561851 | -0.371925562088877 | -0.0333497561851056 | -1.93457840208780 |
| 58 | 6.1 | 6.09046053945314 | -0.814684917103662 | 0.0095394605468556 | -1.32772870375830 |
| 59 | 5.8 | 5.80466258506902 | -0.317468537609233 | -0.00466258506901974 | 1.49103566216011 |
| 60 | 6.2 | 6.17598923858834 | 0.330042526748548 | 0.0240107614116598 | 1.94174225265400 |
| 61 | 7.1 | 7.0652782640628 | 0.85574128072645 | 0.0347217359372012 | 1.57700003230341 |
| 62 | 7.7 | 7.69685792091581 | 0.645020681608193 | 0.00314207908419144 | -0.631918632022108 |
| 63 | 7.9 | 7.95582038480998 | 0.283185326341197 | -0.055820384809978 | -1.08625998222228 |
| 64 | 7.7 | 7.67962744384338 | -0.241547994978146 | 0.0203725561566161 | -1.57344633658481 |
| 65 | 7.4 | 7.37856118066919 | -0.297347152107841 | 0.0214388193308141 | -0.167318389716091 |
| 66 | 7.5 | 7.5989708923728 | 0.188119406854844 | -0.0989708923728049 | 1.45582258909089 |
| 67 | 8 | 7.89333388825534 | 0.287741156002331 | 0.106666111744657 | 0.298741052108636 |
| 68 | 8.1 | 8.12413026988492 | 0.234345957665361 | -0.0241302698849243 | -0.160119375331914 |
