| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 423.4 | 423.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 404.1 | 414.681615828779 | -0.79705651882702 | -1.93728484637907 | -0.0748849046629789 |
| 3 | 500 | 451.460369099 | 1.96301562745611 | 10.7048791179609 | 0.33105286135969 |
| 4 | 472.6 | 461.92035405361 | 2.42724040973775 | 1.19894904926220 | 0.080670994278407 |
| 5 | 496.1 | 476.585110875684 | 2.95340393080522 | 5.10842524021229 | 0.120787400133489 |
| 6 | 562 | 511.918583769467 | 4.12152958075158 | 10.8796997287959 | 0.326151303350756 |
| 7 | 434.8 | 483.36101361428 | 3.07995286631461 | -8.38288153604376 | -0.332851874718943 |
| 8 | 538.2 | 504.404515559841 | 3.60474448313365 | 11.5128158055671 | 0.184140383918859 |
| 9 | 577.6 | 534.879736224004 | 4.34198399441463 | 9.21028925041608 | 0.276498908524525 |
| 10 | 518.1 | 530.278681808333 | 4.10796450356718 | -0.987949681849582 | -0.0922457911814492 |
| 11 | 625.2 | 568.257220577168 | 4.96141112643288 | 14.4621526986920 | 0.349928097632418 |
| 12 | 561.2 | 567.938170942389 | 4.83253310576678 | -0.104420004486369 | -0.0546163700688248 |
| 13 | 523.3 | 572.105013476562 | 4.89491405168368 | -47.8183911310501 | -0.00919973127486513 |
| 14 | 536.1 | 562.187699228511 | 4.43310186613281 | -10.9255770722826 | -0.133816320615445 |
| 15 | 607.3 | 577.399406168213 | 4.79974553977373 | 18.6389051112383 | 0.100182128668110 |
| 16 | 637.3 | 603.672299247585 | 5.38706338991811 | 9.45223287896997 | 0.211532665589422 |
| 17 | 606.9 | 608.502827307186 | 5.37483467316522 | -0.950844547061103 | -0.00564945171623517 |
| 18 | 652.9 | 622.119088800349 | 5.52807326885415 | 20.9410222413410 | 0.084853066246064 |
| 19 | 617.2 | 627.547305804706 | 5.52641884647024 | -10.2269552614216 | -0.00103529745057395 |
| 20 | 670.4 | 643.566830445431 | 5.68743458374923 | 14.1238750253802 | 0.109187500165899 |
| 21 | 729.9 | 675.802698841356 | 6.07459358960958 | 21.8533397546293 | 0.276810524347979 |
| 22 | 677.2 | 683.520905304843 | 6.09772562141712 | -8.32039906787182 | 0.0171578244000113 |
| 23 | 710 | 691.273591909463 | 6.12008661265377 | 16.7103911967106 | 0.0172911155801777 |
| 24 | 844.3 | 752.365548572271 | 6.67933282384765 | 24.6177126429685 | 0.57569474685432 |
| 25 | 748.2 | 777.59647839865 | 6.03121236921146 | -53.9259589268945 | 0.219212382849823 |
| 26 | 653.9 | 741.138467698815 | 5.34676458649737 | -39.9442839008349 | -0.417958907922997 |
| 27 | 742.6 | 736.503594475234 | 5.1193925347843 | 16.9095226695473 | -0.096937755290350 |
| 28 | 854.2 | 779.546856226033 | 5.87366316703624 | 31.9568568367488 | 0.380285134192497 |
| 29 | 808.4 | 797.389028923652 | 6.06923663547251 | -2.84762212319504 | 0.122649098111375 |
| 30 | 1819 | 1170.15651069708 | 11.1366676903444 | 217.872836008404 | 3.80015891535140 |
| 31 | 1936.5 | 1488.28012587611 | 14.8987516905338 | 84.6909338240146 | 3.19929130714277 |
| 32 | 1966.1 | 1691.36922728271 | 17.0298511277811 | 51.0021300194606 | 1.96694818968353 |
| 33 | 2083.1 | 1849.50998201992 | 18.5486156662294 | 65.471507412887 | 1.47721516434563 |
| 34 | 1620.1 | 1788.4777369985 | 17.7261832801294 | -73.436811757611 | -0.833887993254807 |
| 35 | 1527.6 | 1694.65728535002 | 16.6717882644994 | -33.7550595192486 | -1.16984570448234 |
| 36 | 1795 | 1726.19201599965 | 16.7483788139583 | 50.9301593016458 | 0.156422452801543 |
| 37 | 1685.1 | 1760.34076960241 | 16.4555387359094 | -97.1265453087756 | 0.194589179903709 |
| 38 | 1851.8 | 1824.19918622291 | 16.9218919230483 | -26.5977918547481 | 0.481696763552767 |
| 39 | 2164.4 | 1960.53764821524 | 18.9332150880959 | 71.8644862312695 | 1.18763942944971 |
| 40 | 1981.8 | 1979.47479652846 | 18.9332779878966 | 2.32077025052791 | 3.98189781001649e-05 |
| 41 | 1726.5 | 1939.37886136656 | 18.1296235182491 | -144.950031058440 | -0.607563724682302 |
| 42 | 2144.6 | 1974.7923130348 | 18.3302201976358 | 149.664961888909 | 0.179625438413395 |
| 43 | 1758.2 | 1899.13047308939 | 17.3659908728787 | -30.6418282790216 | -0.981839150931345 |
| 44 | 1672.9 | 1816.22559675767 | 16.4204909906713 | -25.2428046842766 | -1.05024568558892 |
| 45 | 1837.3 | 1792.80645467560 | 16.0659004761360 | 91.5049021046926 | -0.417898103098114 |
| 46 | 1596.1 | 1743.52800115373 | 15.5183945315555 | -70.210851657177 | -0.6860556357527 |
| 47 | 1446 | 1654.76417784715 | 14.7711028954023 | -85.284521873523 | -1.0958684107077 |
| 48 | 1898.4 | 1727.41590420138 | 14.9487957275431 | 102.020263968929 | 0.610623584245753 |
| 49 | 1964.1 | 1861.04976419486 | 13.9421765732852 | -42.1591938061262 | 1.29270357376042 |
| 50 | 1755.9 | 1862.48411217444 | 13.8559090901685 | -92.132150889158 | -0.128962171458361 |
| 51 | 2255.3 | 1990.17034004615 | 15.3475786676892 | 137.512383421624 | 1.14950415400863 |
| 52 | 1881.2 | 1963.10006391371 | 14.7804943081271 | -33.9229053299088 | -0.432388162885295 |
| 53 | 2117.9 | 2080.50978582681 | 15.9961106998368 | -80.4661267842994 | 1.05936803220661 |
| 54 | 1656.5 | 1880.20290960533 | 13.7773130051387 | 27.390221987977 | -2.25165643708501 |
| 55 | 1544.1 | 1753.90771533616 | 12.5059259070236 | -46.1741826399388 | -1.46513487296703 |
| 56 | 2098.9 | 1877.47000313565 | 13.4266586630249 | 91.2347352244816 | 1.16468294381579 |
| 57 | 2133.3 | 1942.49910511026 | 13.8252903893520 | 130.180808765717 | 0.541963513517947 |
| 58 | 1963.5 | 1978.93098686500 | 13.9851713195094 | -42.0292612880407 | 0.237644193091478 |
| 59 | 1801.2 | 1966.10319842372 | 13.8324159034571 | -133.289056058794 | -0.282124432613277 |
| 60 | 2365.4 | 2092.73407126232 | 14.0860404407878 | 138.958760602548 | 1.19117757119819 |
| 61 | 1936.5 | 2071.78207665818 | 14.2272948601356 | -93.1080792983525 | -0.376278806217526 |
| 62 | 1667.6 | 1978.78844622617 | 13.6464144891560 | -186.733152716078 | -1.11345639529800 |
| 63 | 1983.5 | 1927.78306376109 | 12.962650485947 | 128.942833260640 | -0.659701973307434 |
| 64 | 2058.6 | 1995.57392398497 | 13.5883505236395 | 0.743690260151816 | 0.561960294236888 |
| 65 | 2448.3 | 2173.01149503698 | 15.3095151552976 | 87.1190956313598 | 1.69524300723591 |
| 66 | 1858.1 | 2058.68664583270 | 14.1068456028677 | -50.3475590490785 | -1.3510507818597 |
| 67 | 1625.4 | 1934.84652863461 | 12.9690761620916 | -148.635292413847 | -1.44417392948922 |
| 68 | 2130.6 | 1976.39287695622 | 13.1830798622253 | 120.777203758186 | 0.299952412488763 |
| 69 | 2515.7 | 2133.94521101020 | 14.1748973589787 | 212.509584883698 | 1.51756260181880 |
| 70 | 2230.2 | 2202.17826236837 | 14.5054764459158 | -35.4542567700631 | 0.568748783384594 |
| 71 | 2086.9 | 2234.05589814963 | 14.5876076591898 | -167.596093221383 | 0.182939477133200 |
| 72 | 2235 | 2189.90572881202 | 14.4708947643872 | 114.502439429009 | -0.620417966237304 |
| 73 | 2100.2 | 2184.42537285255 | 14.5004052859691 | -60.4498538718683 | -0.212552185859943 |
| 74 | 2288.6 | 2292.50356683451 | 14.9332628256618 | -112.757921127396 | 0.975540535709335 |
| 75 | 2490 | 2342.71872548968 | 15.2437089661143 | 107.024944595666 | 0.362650697387888 |
| 76 | 2573.7 | 2451.96924413409 | 16.1732639350564 | 14.4897244529040 | 0.967849557947195 |
| 77 | 2543.8 | 2452.76569912149 | 16.0285108241447 | 108.712075400525 | -0.159421684123625 |
| 78 | 2004.7 | 2306.62130234491 | 14.6526230558671 | -114.059869700991 | -1.69184310816180 |
| 79 | 2390 | 2394.64187373071 | 15.2097974650261 | -90.0876757891502 | 0.768604048349434 |
| 80 | 2338.4 | 2361.43475742451 | 14.8775509689728 | 33.544469182577 | -0.508501667836641 |
| 81 | 2724.5 | 2426.80415528719 | 15.1907342646091 | 238.563235007658 | 0.531074532330278 |
| 82 | 2292.5 | 2404.33786085544 | 14.9876386803755 | -67.6638149641772 | -0.396423861622161 |
| 83 | 2386 | 2458.42793284984 | 15.1473524141049 | -118.383274852990 | 0.411992538473963 |
| 84 | 2477.9 | 2438.09045135798 | 15.0775960910862 | 81.6509690256624 | -0.374746211625817 |
| 85 | 2337 | 2443.87684561586 | 15.0771170248228 | -95.874214394794 | -0.0985211033689705 |
| 86 | 2605.1 | 2557.22525099611 | 15.4870396322428 | -66.5662736083889 | 1.02681499152840 |
| 87 | 2560.8 | 2545.16301899572 | 15.2800292390497 | 47.2389521579837 | -0.284660650886326 |
| 88 | 2839.3 | 2649.05489198203 | 16.0488255660766 | 88.7743203422224 | 0.915686935787295 |
| 89 | 2407.2 | 2523.57699703456 | 14.8464123661232 | 46.5665049617651 | -1.47004283581418 |
| 90 | 2085.2 | 2415.59171377946 | 13.8878115060695 | -188.083360113410 | -1.28258112417302 |
| 91 | 2735.6 | 2557.63456336713 | 14.7900263003081 | 28.7696515393519 | 1.34329543921780 |
| 92 | 2798.7 | 2652.67717000838 | 15.2989649864161 | 52.2883829277495 | 0.843243234925903 |
| 93 | 3053.2 | 2722.64042473771 | 15.6085402854971 | 266.573236076617 | 0.575208881577013 |
| 94 | 2405 | 2651.85678697910 | 15.1902118076113 | -145.567970819499 | -0.909841148191891 |
| 95 | 2471.9 | 2631.60124309449 | 15.0606449165907 | -118.074090159692 | -0.373589867922924 |
| 96 | 2727.3 | 2645.29803489513 | 15.0578658894824 | 83.6075755735832 | -0.0143987327864590 |
| 97 | 2790.7 | 2750.25840298078 | 15.1475446389026 | -65.5897575590314 | 0.950619622651217 |
| 98 | 2385.4 | 2656.97056761019 | 14.7259312209612 | -145.212663696169 | -1.13470415528651 |
| 99 | 3206.6 | 2845.02599850767 | 15.8633057511006 | 161.963145975105 | 1.79791858199428 |
| 100 | 2705.6 | 2766.22739159178 | 15.1345934256816 | 48.1254107678746 | -0.981206003165279 |
| 101 | 3518.4 | 3014.66607189713 | 16.9337009181384 | 234.697291023687 | 2.42745148945704 |
| 102 | 1954.9 | 2745.45148491047 | 14.8720388970241 | -458.877676294272 | -2.99044186614255 |
| 103 | 2584.3 | 2679.91275136416 | 14.3452339659046 | -2.00502499422826 | -0.843259468453997 |
| 104 | 2535.8 | 2615.69599597557 | 13.8822043049847 | 11.8428830372442 | -0.82577610359993 |
| 105 | 2685.9 | 2538.2378708689 | 13.4055770850045 | 254.549053113237 | -0.961436959811166 |
| 106 | 2866 | 2704.28898013606 | 14.0798540770138 | -17.1945059219146 | 1.60804825770784 |
| 107 | 2236.6 | 2599.89671350018 | 13.6810622381244 | -224.239518588987 | -1.24891539579506 |
| 108 | 2934.9 | 2698.60906786369 | 13.8626526041147 | 136.310673994245 | 0.897397860258287 |
| 109 | 2668.6 | 2717.65110336349 | 13.8709089387702 | -55.1434237360001 | 0.0546727393183424 |
| 110 | 2371.2 | 2673.05942045597 | 13.6549473201582 | -233.705256149577 | -0.6124209648126 |
| 111 | 3165.9 | 2790.35974383382 | 14.2601597808862 | 255.82761492746 | 1.07823695045743 |
| 112 | 2887.2 | 2839.57475916538 | 14.5013424591777 | 7.35649226674583 | 0.363242017332657 |
| 113 | 3112.2 | 2831.36679506593 | 14.3415894715205 | 307.061721915677 | -0.236645570305387 |
| 114 | 2671.2 | 2934.6273847807 | 14.9346663846294 | -366.557661306286 | 0.930013829035987 |
| 115 | 2432.6 | 2761.99644584600 | 13.7881684114683 | -111.019332674058 | -1.96785534708222 |
| 116 | 2812.3 | 2766.61741203591 | 13.7377415660165 | 56.3865451288016 | -0.0963861001898183 |
| 117 | 3095.7 | 2813.79118085573 | 13.8997538714006 | 242.788194144845 | 0.3520256798499 |
| 118 | 2862.9 | 2837.32535856298 | 13.9391151715575 | 14.2855328265236 | 0.101514311857133 |
| 119 | 2607.3 | 2854.00993551540 | 13.9478119417654 | -249.931027717017 | 0.0289453637617892 |
| 120 | 2862.5 | 2817.9611438155 | 13.8363005281297 | 103.267604395130 | -0.527483258536329 |
