| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 519 | 519 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 517 | 517.53488576319 | -1.50931967068352 | -0.534885763190245 | -0.195917433969918 |
| 3 | 510 | 511.16081785952 | -4.83640438677179 | -1.16081785951987 | -0.392237856250045 |
| 4 | 509 | 508.037137786154 | -3.59297681257972 | 0.962862213845823 | 0.144093393598201 |
| 5 | 501 | 501.931210878454 | -5.38261979234418 | -0.931210878453754 | -0.198503448653565 |
| 6 | 507 | 504.481454351377 | 0.225291191827157 | 2.5185456486234 | 0.62847050025145 |
| 7 | 569 | 554.95164228436 | 35.867331872617 | 14.0483577156393 | 3.99269021633074 |
| 8 | 580 | 586.062027693306 | 32.4901132096203 | -6.06202769330635 | -0.378037598250256 |
| 9 | 578 | 586.988624471589 | 10.0833547031088 | -8.98862447158926 | -2.50841293522469 |
| 10 | 565 | 570.172230981533 | -9.00870670356781 | -5.1722309815326 | -2.13730328845535 |
| 11 | 547 | 548.41501673278 | -18.0560584872628 | -1.41501673278001 | -1.01281832390928 |
| 12 | 555 | 548.559512126371 | -5.13937789484071 | 6.4404878736286 | 1.44597793857026 |
| 13 | 562 | 558.837841072575 | 5.77274633040281 | 3.16215892742494 | 1.22544629398114 |
| 14 | 561 | 562.308458906698 | 4.13702027413221 | -1.30845890669831 | -0.186017119087309 |
| 15 | 555 | 557.687050697457 | -1.87267524876861 | -2.68705069745723 | -0.668685054456384 |
| 16 | 544 | 542.403886365893 | -11.0334912457731 | 1.59611363410696 | -1.04188732497722 |
| 17 | 537 | 536.684457281772 | -7.37502441697304 | 0.315542718228301 | 0.4098364124012 |
| 18 | 543 | 551.268255807669 | 7.6204892170364 | -8.26825580766865 | 1.67404698884967 |
| 19 | 594 | 577.463147782637 | 20.2926889639789 | 16.5368522173628 | 1.41962649034373 |
| 20 | 611 | 607.760346136581 | 27.1302151031926 | 3.23965386341893 | 0.765654019379351 |
| 21 | 613 | 619.073585930938 | 16.3148820785158 | -6.07358593093843 | -1.21064162342642 |
| 22 | 611 | 616.16090698309 | 3.16786824404775 | -5.16090698308993 | -1.47186502087566 |
| 23 | 594 | 604.156010494937 | -7.20248277329205 | -10.1560104949366 | -1.16094206889327 |
| 24 | 595 | 593.894944914613 | -9.29072115986202 | 1.10505508538653 | -0.233853818426585 |
| 25 | 591 | 586.786106270801 | -7.80084535688394 | 4.21389372919851 | 0.167298240048712 |
| 26 | 589 | 584.679424821553 | -3.9076773595721 | 4.32057517844665 | 0.436478595201897 |
| 27 | 584 | 580.491453784252 | -4.09741968659976 | 3.50854621574841 | -0.0211877937283579 |
| 28 | 573 | 572.376381552077 | -6.80792453391357 | 0.623618447923053 | -0.305025292554735 |
| 29 | 567 | 571.275527873055 | -2.93767135303228 | -4.2755278730546 | 0.434380592348358 |
| 30 | 569 | 581.139807467815 | 5.72276901437693 | -12.1398074678145 | 0.967631686718844 |
| 31 | 621 | 604.783455390935 | 17.8162552110648 | 16.2165446090654 | 1.35334777357137 |
| 32 | 629 | 622.914321794534 | 18.0287501436880 | 6.085678205466 | 0.0237963385170933 |
| 33 | 628 | 631.273185881033 | 11.4919827271705 | -3.27318588103264 | -0.731760462375117 |
| 34 | 612 | 619.034372715256 | -4.55084459529663 | -7.034372715256 | -1.79597672442147 |
| 35 | 595 | 605.602642402641 | -10.5515908366955 | -10.6026424026414 | -0.671780986634648 |
| 36 | 597 | 596.117984864524 | -9.83110419756276 | 0.882015135476252 | 0.0807106975335485 |
| 37 | 593 | 589.505590051469 | -7.65594162463881 | 3.49440994853093 | 0.243935906296182 |
| 38 | 590 | 583.826580184859 | -6.32036795774515 | 6.17341981514053 | 0.149496513561709 |
| 39 | 580 | 574.370230788928 | -8.42874262687417 | 5.62976921107169 | -0.235737801836184 |
| 40 | 574 | 571.936294220964 | -4.40530367621779 | 2.06370577903589 | 0.451462185397122 |
| 41 | 573 | 578.775270023456 | 3.16303817899002 | -5.77527002345611 | 0.848969328353827 |
| 42 | 573 | 590.423616178246 | 8.87255658476506 | -17.4236161782464 | 0.638620028477297 |
| 43 | 620 | 604.478954183038 | 12.3531944414395 | 15.5210458169624 | 0.389364730856851 |
| 44 | 626 | 617.413377632499 | 12.7435337701036 | 8.58662236750144 | 0.0437003858891592 |
| 45 | 620 | 618.948409424444 | 5.2109568683047 | 1.05159057555633 | -0.84329004262027 |
| 46 | 588 | 599.128070785592 | -11.6137169992138 | -11.1280707855923 | -1.88348049229621 |
| 47 | 566 | 578.635295529771 | -17.5798043371606 | -12.6352955297715 | -0.667966338555024 |
| 48 | 557 | 557.86847801415 | -19.7210446513701 | -0.868478014149465 | -0.239866377758354 |
| 49 | 561 | 552.673817483451 | -9.95541515873275 | 8.32618251654923 | 1.09422816963352 |
| 50 | 549 | 541.487802219984 | -10.7821493913125 | 7.51219778001625 | -0.0925134172564313 |
| 51 | 532 | 527.86983573287 | -12.6818517297867 | 4.13016426713028 | -0.212518265865295 |
| 52 | 526 | 524.353760526945 | -6.54767085350996 | 1.64623947305465 | 0.687590183337382 |
| 53 | 511 | 520.026577030717 | -5.05903817220852 | -9.02657703071652 | 0.166892365403853 |
| 54 | 499 | 518.76078483126 | -2.51522676542611 | -19.7607848312599 | 0.284698009363485 |
| 55 | 555 | 535.884644676667 | 10.6385500832129 | 19.1153553233334 | 1.47152213130353 |
| 56 | 565 | 552.41137851768 | 14.5805359889659 | 12.5886214823201 | 0.441223277411353 |
| 57 | 542 | 540.482672361279 | -3.17263792438587 | 1.51732763872071 | -1.98749946266108 |
| 58 | 527 | 534.192382851342 | -5.26087479406452 | -7.19238285134166 | -0.233788317873157 |
| 59 | 510 | 523.701322028714 | -8.76379582719401 | -13.7013220287140 | -0.392233342365311 |
| 60 | 514 | 518.376693631045 | -6.46002578594065 | -4.37669363104481 | 0.258046937760827 |
| 61 | 517 | 508.663803878302 | -8.6398232894806 | 8.33619612169845 | -0.244128210074671 |
| 62 | 508 | 498.971407597004 | -9.3446543170203 | 9.02859240299631 | -0.0788689212302369 |
| 63 | 493 | 490.464523405607 | -8.78471794516405 | 2.5354765943928 | 0.0626554170019082 |
| 64 | 490 | 486.563474934858 | -5.52257960050777 | 3.43652506514171 | 0.365491028832501 |
| 65 | 469 | 480.416519265422 | -5.94012292608596 | -11.4165192654216 | -0.0467943279911121 |
| 66 | 478 | 498.690151024325 | 10.260040052035 | -20.6901510243251 | 1.81360380907420 |
| 67 | 528 | 511.418310545811 | 11.9100070657757 | 16.5816894541889 | 0.184608971279338 |
| 68 | 534 | 515.141021350741 | 6.44011800242520 | 18.8589786492590 | -0.612165182048206 |
| 69 | 518 | 516.533998204122 | 3.06812512897663 | 1.4660017958784 | -0.377486923997789 |
| 70 | 506 | 513.587580086199 | -0.950712848649473 | -7.58758008619888 | -0.449964271024861 |
| 71 | 502 | 515.853248502042 | 1.19863293710772 | -13.8532485020418 | 0.240690861429298 |
| 72 | 516 | 518.818108391217 | 2.37924407106951 | -2.81810839121707 | 0.132227795184545 |
