| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.948539541873247 |
| beta | 0.106971000311946 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 562 | 542.603753604565 | 19.396246395435 |
| 14 | 561 | 562.67893320641 | -1.67893320641008 |
| 15 | 555 | 557.13712453219 | -2.13712453218955 |
| 16 | 544 | 545.296186541336 | -1.29618654133628 |
| 17 | 537 | 537.632301941896 | -0.632301941895889 |
| 18 | 543 | 543.773941164938 | -0.773941164938151 |
| 19 | 594 | 610.624553799897 | -16.6245537998971 |
| 20 | 611 | 605.220496232711 | 5.77950376728927 |
| 21 | 613 | 607.932497543003 | 5.06750245699652 |
| 22 | 611 | 599.192822295501 | 11.8071777044992 |
| 23 | 594 | 592.659863243353 | 1.34013675664733 |
| 24 | 595 | 604.42270246888 | -9.42270246887938 |
| 25 | 591 | 605.459975445812 | -14.4599754458123 |
| 26 | 589 | 589.750678483172 | -0.750678483171896 |
| 27 | 584 | 582.406025010541 | 1.59397498945930 |
| 28 | 573 | 571.610394058013 | 1.38960594198727 |
| 29 | 567 | 564.468985374050 | 2.53101462594952 |
| 30 | 569 | 572.567019939157 | -3.56701993915726 |
| 31 | 621 | 637.298145630074 | -16.2981456300740 |
| 32 | 629 | 632.134000993372 | -3.13400099337161 |
| 33 | 628 | 623.664150525535 | 4.33584947446491 |
| 34 | 612 | 611.649859988715 | 0.350140011284793 |
| 35 | 595 | 590.144061783044 | 4.85593821695602 |
| 36 | 597 | 601.488049543403 | -4.48804954340289 |
| 37 | 593 | 604.226360276133 | -11.2263602761333 |
| 38 | 590 | 589.890697547126 | 0.109302452873521 |
| 39 | 580 | 581.20759472446 | -1.20759472445945 |
| 40 | 574 | 565.366113719614 | 8.63388628038649 |
| 41 | 573 | 563.4339095829 | 9.56609041709953 |
| 42 | 573 | 576.913257121299 | -3.91325712129913 |
| 43 | 620 | 639.963572355668 | -19.9635723556677 |
| 44 | 626 | 630.448972435625 | -4.44897243562536 |
| 45 | 620 | 619.473527042243 | 0.526472957757051 |
| 46 | 588 | 601.87013967871 | -13.8701396787096 |
| 47 | 566 | 564.668413912835 | 1.33158608716542 |
| 48 | 557 | 568.276074636277 | -11.2760746362766 |
| 49 | 561 | 559.450170798384 | 1.54982920161638 |
| 50 | 549 | 554.888995403075 | -5.88899540307534 |
| 51 | 532 | 537.4170501947 | -5.4170501947001 |
| 52 | 526 | 515.275982323141 | 10.7240176768589 |
| 53 | 511 | 512.601559463865 | -1.60155946386476 |
| 54 | 499 | 509.754974120898 | -10.7549741208981 |
| 55 | 555 | 551.070331799376 | 3.92966820062384 |
| 56 | 565 | 560.105194146801 | 4.89480585319893 |
| 57 | 542 | 555.981011405056 | -13.9810114050563 |
| 58 | 527 | 521.951665254031 | 5.04833474596876 |
| 59 | 510 | 503.515694626668 | 6.48430537333206 |
| 60 | 514 | 509.332320109869 | 4.66767989013061 |
| 61 | 517 | 515.807527831614 | 1.19247216838585 |
| 62 | 508 | 510.715216383635 | -2.71521638363527 |
| 63 | 493 | 497.137331636746 | -4.13733163674567 |
| 64 | 490 | 478.281851245991 | 11.7181487540090 |
| 65 | 469 | 477.10886631827 | -8.10886631826992 |
| 66 | 478 | 467.303404905063 | 10.6965950949365 |
| 67 | 528 | 529.452570270792 | -1.45257027079163 |
| 68 | 534 | 534.633319338097 | -0.633319338096726 |
| 69 | 518 | 525.705125960585 | -7.70512596058461 |
| 70 | 506 | 500.932743898882 | 5.06725610111772 |
| 71 | 502 | 484.967570827735 | 17.0324291722645 |
| 72 | 516 | 503.342649755887 | 12.6573502441134 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 520.776912236449 | 504.512843323194 | 537.040981149703 |
| 74 | 517.728502638577 | 494.229076358109 | 541.227928919045 |
| 75 | 510.119883747051 | 480.414482196172 | 539.825285297931 |
| 76 | 499.574685313847 | 464.231949365219 | 534.917421262476 |
| 77 | 488.743325503956 | 448.047011282732 | 529.43963972518 |
| 78 | 491.203303334836 | 444.222961474632 | 538.183645195041 |
| 79 | 546.786284149215 | 488.220833488893 | 605.351734809537 |
| 80 | 556.628819766496 | 490.564551381029 | 622.693088151964 |
| 81 | 550.617506821196 | 478.756947017309 | 622.478066625084 |
| 82 | 536.58131880358 | 460.030384302385 | 613.132253304776 |
| 83 | 518.340686197876 | 437.888717695555 | 598.792654700197 |
| 84 | 521.696250914254 | 429.175056936751 | 614.217444891757 |
