Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 96.96 | 96.96 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 93.11 | 95.6913669472083 | -0.000980021030655114 | -2.58136694720834 | -2.35439870022924 |
3 | 95.62 | 94.8736856730539 | -0.0715190141505774 | 0.746314326946155 | -0.843449423446045 |
4 | 98.3 | 96.0153359193982 | 0.0527649789900341 | 2.28466408060181 | 1.43549603843488 |
5 | 96.38 | 96.4476031709953 | 0.0940450311107307 | -0.0676031709953206 | 0.514396721777169 |
6 | 100.82 | 98.1678597559032 | 0.279267966329127 | 2.65214024409679 | 2.268052813189 |
7 | 99.06 | 99.1186219677098 | 0.359601884479845 | -0.0586219677097961 | 0.92162536853751 |
8 | 94.03 | 97.5960660972948 | 0.123310476354771 | -3.56606609729481 | -2.53072956565060 |
9 | 102.07 | 98.7649967933306 | 0.260186107983493 | 3.30500320666941 | 1.38499001785332 |
10 | 99.31 | 99.3972848247982 | 0.310521604107985 | -0.0872848247981668 | 0.487976288400459 |
11 | 98.64 | 99.3643322430727 | 0.262934354531628 | -0.724332243072709 | -0.447416127904472 |
12 | 101.82 | 100.325431595931 | 0.361272711389759 | 1.49456840406851 | 0.905238791566546 |
13 | 99.14 | 100.093522870962 | 0.281118249826728 | -0.953522870961724 | -0.779133950577501 |
14 | 97.63 | 100.219687154677 | 0.259560722137456 | -2.58968715467741 | -0.207945451559612 |
15 | 100.06 | 100.444224940864 | 0.254555729207507 | -0.384224940864347 | -0.0442832205175691 |
16 | 101.32 | 100.330001561904 | 0.20176345901015 | 0.989998438095807 | -0.449635778160728 |
17 | 101.49 | 101.218571975241 | 0.29967880362698 | 0.271428024759083 | 0.849420626623094 |
18 | 105.43 | 102.125116286416 | 0.386183344090064 | 3.30488371358431 | 0.767563496073078 |
19 | 105.09 | 103.313721279377 | 0.500789107144326 | 1.77627872062316 | 1.02198740401359 |
20 | 99.48 | 103.992085306402 | 0.526174494803314 | -4.51208530640155 | 0.225129444599609 |
21 | 108.53 | 104.895925117743 | 0.58012542141154 | 3.63407488225701 | 0.475465674998847 |
22 | 104.34 | 105.139437528049 | 0.5321214313157 | -0.799437528048958 | -0.421640736441573 |
23 | 106.1 | 106.108922448752 | 0.594354402416231 | -0.00892244875197856 | 0.546819405868286 |
24 | 107.35 | 106.314304742479 | 0.53912319587131 | 1.03569525752134 | -0.48782863608616 |
25 | 103 | 105.609643495873 | 0.362575165195605 | -2.60964349587308 | -1.57388148443057 |
26 | 104.5 | 106.07637391379 | 0.377400403085289 | -1.57637391378990 | 0.132346390257091 |
27 | 105.17 | 106.176510699194 | 0.337866657635272 | -1.00651069919392 | -0.348798959420721 |
28 | 104.84 | 105.707077938782 | 0.222975899857415 | -0.867077938782345 | -1.00339196360372 |
29 | 106.18 | 105.984984318016 | 0.230770090503347 | 0.195015681983815 | 0.0682097205664772 |
30 | 108.86 | 106.218746854509 | 0.231194268701244 | 2.64125314549062 | 0.00374328243966299 |
31 | 107.77 | 106.369141368573 | 0.219728657043503 | 1.4008586314268 | -0.101655097675369 |
32 | 102.74 | 106.898607067006 | 0.263739395634661 | -4.15860706700593 | 0.389490496459233 |
33 | 112.63 | 107.884621765110 | 0.366387079300419 | 4.74537823489034 | 0.903999092855174 |
34 | 106.26 | 107.979904909540 | 0.327900003699129 | -1.71990490954012 | -0.337764564139119 |
35 | 108.86 | 108.211499608656 | 0.314249277317939 | 0.648500391343989 | -0.119835732872230 |
36 | 111.38 | 108.884283310002 | 0.365019863815243 | 2.49571668999779 | 0.447353213592940 |
37 | 106.85 | 109.362924486883 | 0.381113107618596 | -2.51292448688286 | 0.142362655773949 |
38 | 107.86 | 109.480796057433 | 0.343789774283389 | -1.62079605743325 | -0.330251126803274 |
39 | 107.94 | 109.230671964586 | 0.259540914608190 | -1.29067196458562 | -0.74260390625776 |
40 | 111.38 | 110.410000407980 | 0.389919242876660 | 0.969999592020206 | 1.14486603829128 |
41 | 111.29 | 111.14879061502 | 0.439307416397044 | 0.141209384980030 | 0.433707369910372 |
42 | 113.72 | 111.517672330211 | 0.429344261551867 | 2.20232766978863 | -0.0877675937289686 |
43 | 111.88 | 111.516254580638 | 0.368385500242395 | 0.363745419362447 | -0.538398849073008 |
44 | 109.87 | 112.733466042757 | 0.48858785721744 | -2.8634660427575 | 1.06139970862604 |
45 | 113.72 | 111.753764270742 | 0.280610168210390 | 1.96623572925750 | -1.83217261052912 |
46 | 111.71 | 112.228765533310 | 0.308132937919581 | -0.518765533310143 | 0.241957837634612 |
47 | 114.81 | 113.290479838713 | 0.414747753730156 | 1.51952016128710 | 0.93719175067661 |
48 | 112.05 | 112.287721550502 | 0.214298740856166 | -0.237721550501600 | -1.76509080836131 |
49 | 111.54 | 112.670748901700 | 0.238160946616792 | -1.13074890170043 | 0.210503334246384 |
50 | 110.87 | 112.797086023392 | 0.222339535949491 | -1.92708602339242 | -0.139596124003331 |
51 | 110.87 | 112.937618709707 | 0.210762397569870 | -2.06761870970746 | -0.101994701269503 |
52 | 115.48 | 113.719114534012 | 0.291510083438655 | 1.76088546598836 | 0.710247001111174 |
53 | 111.63 | 113.143943927448 | 0.168957211384853 | -1.51394392744759 | -1.07776134551946 |
54 | 116.24 | 113.316524732870 | 0.169469429378559 | 2.92347526713025 | 0.00450996867662962 |
55 | 113.56 | 113.429743525224 | 0.161517490526188 | 0.130256474775515 | -0.0701014886635743 |
56 | 106.01 | 111.482499538652 | -0.136677084923912 | -5.47249953865152 | -2.62906421090012 |
57 | 110.45 | 109.846096888250 | -0.348782322526111 | 0.603903111750462 | -1.86826176844829 |
58 | 107.77 | 108.736963978813 | -0.456301468765184 | -0.966963978812583 | -0.946090585318997 |
59 | 108.61 | 107.368862237890 | -0.585193834466015 | 1.24113776211045 | -1.13397580907822 |
60 | 108.19 | 107.270653538738 | -0.516369492753632 | 0.919346461261617 | 0.605936834763827 |