Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.176261864801442 |
beta | 1 |
gamma | 0.600923944155917 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 99.14 | 96.9701078086023 | 2.16989219139769 |
14 | 97.63 | 96.2030591186773 | 1.42694088132269 |
15 | 100.06 | 99.431378904446 | 0.628621095554024 |
16 | 101.32 | 101.501848185809 | -0.181848185808690 |
17 | 101.49 | 102.267284361111 | -0.777284361111484 |
18 | 105.43 | 106.577629786737 | -1.14762978673657 |
19 | 105.09 | 105.527295103797 | -0.437295103797226 |
20 | 99.48 | 100.520382405752 | -1.04038240575231 |
21 | 108.53 | 109.072585741727 | -0.542585741727265 |
22 | 104.34 | 106.155697584904 | -1.81569758490407 |
23 | 106.1 | 104.900162390693 | 1.19983760930700 |
24 | 107.35 | 108.418033329171 | -1.0680333291713 |
25 | 103 | 106.238976848037 | -3.23897684803737 |
26 | 104.5 | 102.78944014273 | 1.71055985726996 |
27 | 105.17 | 104.605862470763 | 0.564137529236874 |
28 | 104.84 | 105.107030858014 | -0.267030858013840 |
29 | 106.18 | 104.356347770034 | 1.82365222996579 |
30 | 108.86 | 108.286005211030 | 0.573994788969728 |
31 | 107.77 | 107.418581716426 | 0.351418283574333 |
32 | 102.74 | 101.840546586726 | 0.899453413274145 |
33 | 112.63 | 111.226187332072 | 1.40381266792828 |
34 | 106.26 | 108.310144341984 | -2.05014434198399 |
35 | 108.86 | 108.864245321722 | -0.00424532172155523 |
36 | 111.38 | 111.237255696141 | 0.142744303859160 |
37 | 106.85 | 108.419593267117 | -1.56959326711744 |
38 | 107.86 | 108.334309597288 | -0.474309597288027 |
39 | 107.94 | 109.479637970686 | -1.53963797068599 |
40 | 111.38 | 109.065373453684 | 2.31462654631638 |
41 | 111.29 | 110.141518075464 | 1.14848192453621 |
42 | 113.72 | 113.662120131314 | 0.0578798686858164 |
43 | 111.88 | 112.640248565069 | -0.760248565068508 |
44 | 109.87 | 106.798333089354 | 3.0716669106464 |
45 | 113.72 | 117.568547610295 | -3.8485476102947 |
46 | 111.71 | 111.207156295411 | 0.502843704588955 |
47 | 114.81 | 113.161886492191 | 1.64811350780889 |
48 | 112.05 | 116.154619004939 | -4.10461900493868 |
49 | 111.54 | 111.030774728233 | 0.509225271766581 |
50 | 110.87 | 111.681541542628 | -0.81154154262758 |
51 | 110.87 | 112.005327353228 | -1.13532735322833 |
52 | 115.48 | 113.439640460457 | 2.04035953954320 |
53 | 111.63 | 113.646580715151 | -2.01658071515121 |
54 | 116.24 | 115.306057199403 | 0.93394280059708 |
55 | 113.56 | 113.356329030139 | 0.203670969861363 |
56 | 106.01 | 109.066993650808 | -3.05699365080753 |
57 | 110.45 | 113.672010559872 | -3.22201055987207 |
58 | 107.77 | 108.156438072855 | -0.38643807285456 |
59 | 108.61 | 108.787487038676 | -0.177487038676162 |
60 | 108.19 | 106.65977398156 | 1.53022601844008 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 103.951517191193 | 101.767746706038 | 106.135287676349 |
62 | 102.799120961628 | 100.333140101633 | 105.265101821623 |
63 | 102.145077353275 | 99.1337009786908 | 105.156453727859 |
64 | 104.307857934344 | 100.438799593681 | 108.176916275008 |
65 | 101.251979512091 | 96.4615776124803 | 106.042381411702 |
66 | 103.587240815721 | 97.5004115900556 | 109.674070041386 |
67 | 100.445910954070 | 93.2043623606451 | 107.687459547494 |
68 | 94.270080290677 | 86.0728884430293 | 102.467272138325 |
69 | 98.2534086164423 | 88.1760156747464 | 108.330801558138 |
70 | 95.1546421609472 | 83.7527780355253 | 106.556506286369 |
71 | 95.949063648979 | 82.6914742122405 | 109.206653085718 |
72 | 94.9583946571643 | 79.9845144089064 | 109.932274905422 |