| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 115.6 | 115.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 111.9 | 113.687741698322 | -0.0471880947713023 | -1.78774169832153 | -0.694616887019448 |
| 3 | 107 | 109.650650696342 | -0.300420268999158 | -2.65065069634248 | -1.17986137036417 |
| 4 | 107.1 | 107.814489771174 | -0.385595156621494 | -0.714489771174473 | -0.566908339019792 |
| 5 | 100.6 | 104.419200030583 | -0.496982609736158 | -3.81920003058255 | -1.23743256303235 |
| 6 | 99.2 | 101.419839936339 | -0.555269108731592 | -2.21983993633902 | -1.05663906033247 |
| 7 | 108.4 | 103.566241016991 | -0.510382525763502 | 4.83375898300889 | 1.14565084555901 |
| 8 | 103 | 103.965582784848 | -0.497212433639811 | -0.96558278484805 | 0.385656753962141 |
| 9 | 99.8 | 102.390220127020 | -0.512656541279543 | -2.59022012702034 | -0.456517879969998 |
| 10 | 115 | 107.274609641902 | -0.433547339392617 | 7.72539035809793 | 2.28293493881863 |
| 11 | 90.8 | 101.772904482027 | -0.508966894946389 | -10.9729044820271 | -2.14266125805436 |
| 12 | 95.9 | 97.8872412315243 | -0.559236776159608 | -1.98724123152428 | -1.42734437175178 |
| 13 | 114.4 | 101.586003629562 | -0.644494991047387 | 12.8139963704379 | 1.89998440734161 |
| 14 | 108.2 | 104.014112406986 | -0.663732843833576 | 4.18588759301389 | 1.34566828907464 |
| 15 | 112.6 | 108.473969780654 | -0.579723799837616 | 4.12603021934577 | 2.03765011748638 |
| 16 | 109.1 | 109.091962759106 | -0.547802928386314 | 0.00803724089400593 | 0.467741863725307 |
| 17 | 105 | 108.696170420485 | -0.543763716981717 | -3.69617042048533 | 0.0614092171368355 |
| 18 | 105 | 108.610425413051 | -0.533763963761378 | -3.61042541305061 | 0.190500847750431 |
| 19 | 118.5 | 110.708530927764 | -0.489342793652931 | 7.79146907223635 | 1.10937591968876 |
| 20 | 103.7 | 108.723510441766 | -0.509550736680363 | -5.02351044176596 | -0.633337479110186 |
| 21 | 112.5 | 111.240773259540 | -0.474549797153029 | 1.25922674045984 | 1.28309305009180 |
| 22 | 116.6 | 109.208001436983 | -0.490083608045464 | 7.39199856301667 | -0.66028082431665 |
| 23 | 96.6 | 107.514220213086 | -0.499127164182574 | -10.9142202130862 | -0.509582683146522 |
| 24 | 101.9 | 106.906780162968 | -0.499520615158058 | -5.00678016296778 | -0.04591202920547 |
| 25 | 116.5 | 106.616023582576 | -0.499542033705390 | 9.88397641742383 | 0.0890426185936181 |
| 26 | 119.3 | 111.167437954341 | -0.485961594362135 | 8.13256204565931 | 2.13501455937932 |
| 27 | 115.4 | 112.460169168803 | -0.468526006664414 | 2.93983083119735 | 0.732356600130681 |
| 28 | 108.5 | 111.149181881861 | -0.481860703171466 | -2.64918188186052 | -0.34176275406857 |
| 29 | 111.5 | 112.735400796103 | -0.444007120938674 | -1.23540079610252 | 0.844620551513454 |
| 30 | 108.8 | 113.365961531754 | -0.425049793984041 | -4.56596153175362 | 0.445604412221594 |
| 31 | 121.8 | 113.468199095062 | -0.416957288587322 | 8.33180090493808 | 0.221313615354056 |
| 32 | 109.6 | 114.228788658551 | -0.40201038768555 | -4.62878865855079 | 0.497382907054865 |
| 33 | 112.2 | 112.356940498885 | -0.417020417771914 | -0.156940498884516 | -0.622230937044485 |
| 34 | 119.6 | 111.394492866566 | -0.421321308586175 | 8.2055071334341 | -0.230922661251823 |
| 35 | 104.1 | 112.604607148882 | -0.412128282963062 | -8.50460714888187 | 0.690472793856605 |
| 36 | 105.3 | 112.430824121390 | -0.411222634577728 | -7.13082412138977 | 0.100889960881476 |
| 37 | 115 | 110.706514287640 | -0.415547478620462 | 4.29348571235951 | -0.555210311432967 |
| 38 | 124.1 | 112.716362589507 | -0.403462274070319 | 11.3836374104934 | 1.01863608328307 |
| 39 | 116.8 | 113.573622595872 | -0.393015451158836 | 3.2263774041275 | 0.523525100593334 |
| 40 | 107.5 | 112.883286111940 | -0.396463177848309 | -5.38328611194034 | -0.122521932774575 |
| 41 | 115.6 | 114.524937754335 | -0.36871405444321 | 1.07506224566542 | 0.840941179444782 |
| 42 | 116.2 | 117.417426362713 | -0.323190776880803 | -1.21742636271277 | 1.35571372482436 |
| 43 | 116.3 | 114.219682076951 | -0.360424445039231 | 2.08031792304885 | -1.20471851411286 |
| 44 | 119 | 116.731999858988 | -0.328316434607079 | 2.26800014101163 | 1.21057249830677 |
| 45 | 111.9 | 115.315896545428 | -0.33824442662793 | -3.41589654542791 | -0.459554304134722 |
| 46 | 118.6 | 113.269026546096 | -0.350432278436624 | 5.33097345390403 | -0.722327441597483 |
| 47 | 106.9 | 113.543308157550 | -0.347016451361964 | -6.6433081575504 | 0.264088344838222 |
| 48 | 103.2 | 112.195956954700 | -0.351478738505313 | -8.99595695469985 | -0.422650512881255 |
| 49 | 118.6 | 113.340949444540 | -0.344807623523081 | 5.25905055545963 | 0.630972541030574 |
| 50 | 118.7 | 111.444858783450 | -0.353459097999474 | 7.2551412165505 | -0.65103651598311 |
| 51 | 102.8 | 106.394057355863 | -0.388552057390045 | -3.5940573558635 | -1.95933030901455 |
| 52 | 100.6 | 105.77669223239 | -0.390713289251661 | -5.17669223239005 | -0.095040005492601 |
| 53 | 94.9 | 101.307677568354 | -0.434911326123989 | -6.40767756835446 | -1.69421194787425 |
| 54 | 94.5 | 97.5523946791226 | -0.472422598881949 | -3.05239467912265 | -1.38471498365671 |
| 55 | 102.9 | 98.448287977431 | -0.457598387395081 | 4.45171202256897 | 0.573525871408617 |
| 56 | 95.3 | 95.9559531014323 | -0.477327684353014 | -0.655953101432312 | -0.856299223544018 |
| 57 | 92.5 | 94.9026439899448 | -0.482063745010377 | -2.40264398994485 | -0.242951611824349 |
| 58 | 102.7 | 95.5966404765 | -0.474132088250357 | 7.10335952349996 | 0.496520236397815 |
| 59 | 91.5 | 96.4089929797308 | -0.466983318817869 | -4.90899297973084 | 0.543191702966212 |
| 60 | 89.5 | 97.2059100330946 | -0.46077845252541 | -7.70591003309457 | 0.533312661209458 |
