| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 115.47 | 115.47 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 103.34 | 107.327958564947 | -0.325179553534179 | -3.98795856494674 | -1.31384091634919 |
| 3 | 102.6 | 103.335702428143 | -0.531108494473806 | -0.735702428143354 | -0.626994004952887 |
| 4 | 100.69 | 101.477800279429 | -0.582071727486263 | -0.78780027942943 | -0.277578314861533 |
| 5 | 105.67 | 103.358480085691 | -0.530568820401064 | 2.31151991430892 | 0.54103236586135 |
| 6 | 123.61 | 114.176046780436 | -0.386893349113194 | 9.43395321956443 | 2.50565761915007 |
| 7 | 113.08 | 115.999701237838 | -0.363708685345868 | -2.9197012378379 | 0.487784846962114 |
| 8 | 106.46 | 111.601457500004 | -0.406517997994906 | -5.14145750000427 | -0.889343162668956 |
| 9 | 123.38 | 116.778244224018 | -0.344680551818183 | 6.6017557759817 | 1.22986577501193 |
| 10 | 109.87 | 114.426950837446 | -0.367363045269992 | -4.55695083744614 | -0.441883426953570 |
| 11 | 95.74 | 104.474675073961 | -0.47567205218093 | -8.73467507396095 | -2.11065283575416 |
| 12 | 123.06 | 111.968804389118 | -0.386522584471784 | 11.0911956108823 | 1.75506234544260 |
| 13 | 123.39 | 115.761408280578 | -0.498189359351577 | 7.62859171942242 | 0.987641954012402 |
| 14 | 120.28 | 119.227540796823 | -0.506199967616021 | 1.05245920317707 | 0.884476715828104 |
| 15 | 115.33 | 118.010039970474 | -0.520238922243998 | -2.68003997047408 | -0.144853501871608 |
| 16 | 110.4 | 115.656618777612 | -0.564656549838987 | -5.25661877761206 | -0.381198650923356 |
| 17 | 114.49 | 116.273380986845 | -0.541489489472847 | -1.78338098684487 | 0.255282991059217 |
| 18 | 132.03 | 119.676897405235 | -0.487400342347508 | 12.3531025947649 | 0.866253538290777 |
| 19 | 123.16 | 122.752227021661 | -0.451821974445156 | 0.407772978339069 | 0.785280587709519 |
| 20 | 118.82 | 124.872475979880 | -0.429886337941507 | -6.05247597988047 | 0.56717228913698 |
| 21 | 128.32 | 122.470496177201 | -0.446161534524373 | 5.84950382279913 | -0.434773043057902 |
| 22 | 112.24 | 117.393782083926 | -0.482434263437948 | -5.153782083926 | -1.02038976027460 |
| 23 | 104.53 | 116.47949329434 | -0.48496253223978 | -11.9494932943399 | -0.095073714820492 |
| 24 | 132.57 | 119.789924425355 | -0.479783439094625 | 12.7800755746453 | 0.83685261990826 |
| 25 | 122.52 | 118.619278274337 | -0.477247943817894 | 3.90072172566312 | -0.154085010070662 |
| 26 | 131.8 | 123.770050157323 | -0.468173836714676 | 8.02994984267697 | 1.23641175510898 |
| 27 | 124.55 | 125.958475991532 | -0.440029360964334 | -1.40847599153218 | 0.565287481436237 |
| 28 | 120.96 | 127.091100751783 | -0.415541955356167 | -6.1311007517826 | 0.333279162886685 |
| 29 | 122.6 | 127.257181742023 | -0.406460463823326 | -4.65718174202272 | 0.125298946680323 |
| 30 | 145.52 | 131.126861504700 | -0.350456398656903 | 14.3931384953004 | 0.934480534758247 |
| 31 | 118.57 | 125.780747762463 | -0.402289786662204 | -7.210747762463 | -1.09901390072755 |
| 32 | 134.25 | 130.762629209823 | -0.3568825882647 | 3.48737079017685 | 1.18700408177217 |
| 33 | 136.7 | 130.254959961601 | -0.357951047881837 | 6.44504003839928 | -0.0332481632645142 |
| 34 | 121.37 | 128.303595820502 | -0.366972286446859 | -6.93359582050245 | -0.351062524363421 |
| 35 | 111.63 | 126.473888893507 | -0.372345045912592 | -14.8438888935066 | -0.32201849472247 |
| 36 | 134.42 | 124.058720669928 | -0.375416327841318 | 10.3612793300721 | -0.45012444939853 |
| 37 | 137.65 | 129.866061576178 | -0.370301711064613 | 7.7839384238219 | 1.36299362686532 |
| 38 | 137.86 | 131.537550056016 | -0.363209861709759 | 6.32244994398364 | 0.44618146357317 |
| 39 | 119.77 | 127.165199857200 | -0.394911294055877 | -7.39519985720027 | -0.863858541840704 |
| 40 | 130.69 | 131.518977027508 | -0.341231395126340 | -0.828977027508219 | 1.01856100287634 |
| 41 | 128.28 | 133.561342767946 | -0.311735769256841 | -5.28134276794625 | 0.514873768675007 |
| 42 | 147.45 | 132.764725227951 | -0.317325757141901 | 14.6852747720485 | -0.105771942779876 |
| 43 | 128.42 | 135.154076773928 | -0.290757182740712 | -6.7340767739285 | 0.594353827488041 |
| 44 | 136.9 | 134.33399253471 | -0.294998529839911 | 2.56600746529012 | -0.116568172349279 |
| 45 | 143.95 | 134.995478364977 | -0.288925961192967 | 8.95452163502331 | 0.210740649050774 |
| 46 | 135.64 | 138.190665341355 | -0.272397667199056 | -2.55066534135518 | 0.767201469201027 |
| 47 | 122.48 | 138.254498853333 | -0.271316509184752 | -15.7744988533332 | 0.0739973500996006 |
| 48 | 136.83 | 134.148506177838 | -0.279668582818051 | 2.68149382216241 | -0.843764540139479 |
| 49 | 153.04 | 139.038125773193 | -0.267516581540994 | 14.0018742268066 | 1.13538098247071 |
| 50 | 142.71 | 137.994579852830 | -0.270696474969341 | 4.71542014717033 | -0.169431413360703 |
| 51 | 123.46 | 135.677102722450 | -0.284477601915333 | -12.2171027224504 | -0.443468572362297 |
| 52 | 144.37 | 140.449551607447 | -0.238881977944825 | 3.92044839255288 | 1.09224676117646 |
| 53 | 146.15 | 146.527074125742 | -0.175029283663729 | -0.377074125742317 | 1.36894574101198 |
| 54 | 147.61 | 141.454574985447 | -0.223619489293693 | 6.15542501455256 | -1.06825724005665 |
| 55 | 158.51 | 151.972920945210 | -0.128474338226703 | 6.53707905479046 | 2.35575479203730 |
| 56 | 147.4 | 150.672578421736 | -0.137142283222423 | -3.27257842173574 | -0.257732805261729 |
| 57 | 165.05 | 153.743011841665 | -0.118352598903569 | 11.3069881583353 | 0.706005605617627 |
| 58 | 154.64 | 155.669447008316 | -0.109317000949693 | -1.02944700831632 | 0.449957575074511 |
| 59 | 126.2 | 148.838105752518 | -0.131296583785884 | -22.6381057525176 | -1.47852021154116 |
| 60 | 157.36 | 151.710423859536 | -0.12316487604108 | 5.6495761404642 | 0.66017908858174 |
| 61 | 154.15 | 146.374999541500 | -0.13896620166243 | 7.77500045849982 | -1.14322064543085 |
| 62 | 123.21 | 132.103879576503 | -0.199355267159524 | -8.8938795765034 | -3.08655763456848 |
| 63 | 113.07 | 128.24269740184 | -0.221396367090524 | -15.1726974018401 | -0.79601403941959 |
| 64 | 110.45 | 118.437305427123 | -0.294314662373635 | -7.98730542712287 | -2.07908279108819 |
| 65 | 113.57 | 114.372258390693 | -0.326413110977238 | -0.802258390692765 | -0.819523877149432 |
| 66 | 122.44 | 117.268916504714 | -0.298839422008591 | 5.17108349528605 | 0.703454687289402 |
| 67 | 114.93 | 113.484551149028 | -0.326286780023321 | 1.44544885097167 | -0.763837738536676 |
| 68 | 111.85 | 114.51460613273 | -0.317123253986082 | -2.66460613273006 | 0.297982879869803 |
| 69 | 126.04 | 114.776303062257 | -0.313948563807010 | 11.2636969377431 | 0.127282440685429 |
| 70 | 121.34 | 116.877827379219 | -0.303557140838329 | 4.46217262078138 | 0.531164098880861 |
