| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 4716.99 | 4716.99 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 4926.65 | 4915.82389346482 | 12.2917766479807 | 10.8261065351772 | 0.474143182426502 |
| 3 | 4920.1 | 4909.32683329282 | 11.4783583557380 | 10.7731667071821 | -0.0734824681006915 |
| 4 | 5170.09 | 5158.68754853415 | 26.0141984409625 | 11.4024514658532 | 0.921510114350787 |
| 5 | 5246.24 | 5234.71537176125 | 29.8425338269466 | 11.5246282387540 | 0.192107471638571 |
| 6 | 5283.61 | 5272.0686665272 | 30.5149302589782 | 11.5413334727969 | 0.0286401383000769 |
| 7 | 4979.05 | 4968.1779507151 | -2.97703075555560 | 10.8720492848993 | -1.26741586773592 |
| 8 | 4825.2 | 4814.5966152821 | -19.3439670193376 | 10.6033847178987 | -0.56796472904498 |
| 9 | 4695.12 | 4684.69108854291 | -32.1016949099125 | 10.4289114570866 | -0.415292614347238 |
| 10 | 4711.54 | 4701.04384669712 | -26.2575725887026 | 10.4961533028767 | 0.181431462760696 |
| 11 | 4727.22 | 4716.67296336093 | -21.0373994941140 | 10.5470366390665 | 0.156452449748119 |
| 12 | 4384.96 | 4374.75299305129 | -62.0106907111784 | 10.2070069487136 | -1.19624486917932 |
| 13 | 4378.75 | 4436.73343869824 | -47.7041255128459 | -57.983438698239 | 0.54484929709266 |
| 14 | 4472.93 | 4465.89583591745 | -37.4123459112682 | 7.03416408255052 | 0.242844075962779 |
| 15 | 4564.07 | 4557.04150936607 | -20.3317398518579 | 7.02849063393283 | 0.477273329575311 |
| 16 | 4310.54 | 4303.50260130892 | -51.5562773248639 | 7.0373986910815 | -0.865276390319022 |
| 17 | 4171.38 | 4164.33970554415 | -63.3536491347295 | 7.04029445584965 | -0.324906830983984 |
| 18 | 4049.38 | 4042.33802915334 | -71.2852190313923 | 7.04197084666357 | -0.217436545685577 |
| 19 | 3591.37 | 3584.31847453474 | -123.754103295220 | 7.05152546526229 | -1.43345909869020 |
| 20 | 3720.46 | 3713.41387187157 | -89.3681082060259 | 7.04612812843154 | 0.937033817508478 |
| 21 | 4107.23 | 4100.19265105717 | -24.5004804807337 | 7.03734894282743 | 1.76431044845353 |
| 22 | 4101.71 | 4094.67295328399 | -21.9112363000397 | 7.03704671600866 | 0.0703241064200002 |
| 23 | 4162.34 | 4155.30408812257 | -10.6402515458678 | 7.03591187743475 | 0.305797827925542 |
| 24 | 4136.22 | 4129.18390437811 | -12.7555488039746 | 7.03609562189286 | -0.0573458877171195 |
| 25 | 4125.88 | 4188.23893747785 | -3.11678906716208 | -62.3589374778513 | 0.289731068152174 |
| 26 | 4031.48 | 4028.10070478333 | -24.3810111134591 | 3.37929521666738 | -0.529160684893247 |
| 27 | 3761.36 | 3757.92118652420 | -58.0148360519227 | 3.43881347580425 | -0.9102431428449 |
| 28 | 3408.56 | 3405.05956319205 | -98.3669595349494 | 3.50043680794973 | -1.09190368296418 |
| 29 | 3228.47 | 3224.95481818324 | -109.554868427549 | 3.51518181676425 | -0.302705118195113 |
| 30 | 3090.45 | 3086.93038547113 | -113.452045168433 | 3.51961452886704 | -0.105435258230845 |
| 31 | 2741.14 | 2737.58868550287 | -145.745286927794 | 3.55131449712617 | -0.87361740661691 |
| 32 | 2980.44 | 2976.93335069631 | -93.0233982195095 | 3.50664930369296 | 1.42620229767075 |
| 33 | 3104.33 | 3100.84506724284 | -63.3218588624774 | 3.48493275716462 | 0.803442188384188 |
| 34 | 3181.57 | 3178.09721279508 | -44.0745472717793 | 3.47278720492115 | 0.520636908689185 |
| 35 | 2863.86 | 2860.36680639736 | -81.5444359146892 | 3.49319360264471 | -1.01353612875065 |
| 36 | 2898.01 | 2894.524252856 | -65.7017773773218 | 3.48574714399963 | 0.428527702181873 |
| 37 | 3112.33 | 3111.68071084429 | -27.2929400636639 | 0.64928915571192 | 1.11018305782392 |
| 38 | 3254.33 | 3252.58198045968 | -4.4912995017168 | 1.74801954032212 | 0.582396729051283 |
| 39 | 3513.47 | 3511.77645591089 | 31.6219920270312 | 1.69354408910864 | 0.97645256497049 |
| 40 | 3587.61 | 3585.9240369021 | 37.4458089755348 | 1.68596309789715 | 0.157481621939537 |
| 41 | 3727.45 | 3725.77979330157 | 51.470194610832 | 1.67020669843369 | 0.379257671785835 |
| 42 | 3793.34 | 3791.67170831907 | 53.445109342064 | 1.66829168092609 | 0.0534096839371694 |
| 43 | 3817.58 | 3815.90836093006 | 49.4453560447877 | 1.67163906993779 | -0.108173430408701 |
| 44 | 3845.13 | 3843.4561950466 | 46.4467768814015 | 1.67380495339840 | -0.0810988394344724 |
| 45 | 3931.86 | 3930.18963414255 | 51.963480196427 | 1.67036585745173 | 0.149206410047856 |
| 46 | 4197.52 | 4195.86537960764 | 81.2283664072787 | 1.65462039235670 | 0.791518731463537 |
| 47 | 4307.13 | 4305.47718442853 | 85.1150777748934 | 1.65281557146737 | 0.105123906839561 |
| 48 | 4229.43 | 4227.76824868805 | 62.818604263389 | 1.66175131195165 | -0.603057870740139 |
| 49 | 4362.28 | 4372.18265897977 | 73.9279075564652 | -9.90265897977322 | 0.315786596542491 |
| 50 | 4217.34 | 4218.37893707788 | 43.0006322761441 | -1.03893707788023 | -0.800393009891683 |
| 51 | 4361.28 | 4362.33587906628 | 56.8272562125938 | -1.05587906628336 | 0.373865937961279 |
| 52 | 4327.74 | 4328.78278946027 | 44.4496948531407 | -1.04278946026654 | -0.334710182348936 |
| 53 | 4417.65 | 4418.69847246062 | 50.676034628179 | -1.04847246062223 | 0.168380595553360 |
| 54 | 4557.68 | 4558.73811278851 | 62.9136494584889 | -1.05811278851137 | 0.330959548503073 |
| 55 | 4650.35 | 4651.41088350667 | 66.9888554396978 | -1.06088350666693 | 0.110215274502267 |
| 56 | 4967.18 | 4968.26096115749 | 101.204453736285 | -1.08096115748658 | 0.92539436899065 |
| 57 | 5123.42 | 5124.50477822304 | 108.741413871920 | -1.08477822303992 | 0.203848137453370 |
| 58 | 5290.85 | 5291.93829122378 | 116.778547518771 | -1.08829122377515 | 0.217378977263251 |
| 59 | 5535.66 | 5536.75490546699 | 134.311707600534 | -1.09490546698773 | 0.474221112831057 |
| 60 | 5514.06 | 5515.14795391804 | 112.960656443390 | -1.08795391804169 | -0.577488284858046 |
| 61 | 5493.88 | 5492.96246396063 | 94.5375324987235 | 0.91753603936832 | -0.518577928452614 |
| 62 | 5694.83 | 5694.16102348844 | 109.042743155212 | 0.66897651155731 | 0.378444331402451 |
| 63 | 5850.41 | 5849.74752593441 | 115.417098603227 | 0.662474065587506 | 0.172368407652804 |
| 64 | 6116.64 | 6115.99571780659 | 136.073161637524 | 0.644282193408487 | 0.558595597647032 |
| 65 | 6175 | 6174.34762749772 | 125.429674930768 | 0.652372502275441 | -0.287842657372996 |
| 66 | 6513.58 | 6512.94677845454 | 154.621460576209 | 0.633221545458092 | 0.789492014875746 |
| 67 | 6383.78 | 6383.12472368476 | 115.669790054040 | 0.655276315244423 | -1.05347679181640 |
| 68 | 6673.66 | 6673.01638240153 | 139.527523588693 | 0.64361759846787 | 0.645263145153977 |
| 69 | 6936.61 | 6935.97351108528 | 156.429744271382 | 0.636488914719063 | 0.457149231481348 |
| 70 | 7300.68 | 7300.05386168012 | 184.864961277996 | 0.626138319881116 | 0.769087320776314 |
| 71 | 7392.93 | 7392.29987717766 | 172.181938433169 | 0.630122822339113 | -0.343040591962557 |
| 72 | 7497.31 | 7496.67735964767 | 162.896952975821 | 0.632640352333754 | -0.251134670148619 |
| 73 | 7584.71 | 7595.98851243948 | 154.222183930943 | -11.2785124394809 | -0.242587193683522 |
| 74 | 7160.79 | 7163.2985799774 | 74.3251537458699 | -2.50857997740033 | -2.09615699538332 |
| 75 | 7196.19 | 7198.69391742458 | 68.9936342680549 | -2.50391742457799 | -0.144174533300344 |
| 76 | 7245.63 | 7248.13190073559 | 66.3155428998391 | -2.50190073558575 | -0.0724248136395152 |
| 77 | 7347.51 | 7350.01506636859 | 71.1863083849607 | -2.50506636859111 | 0.131727794391126 |
| 78 | 7425.75 | 7428.25560823944 | 72.1523257701151 | -2.50560823943748 | 0.0261263476820294 |
| 79 | 7778.51 | 7781.03421262287 | 110.581288348258 | -2.52421262287331 | 1.03935167459402 |
| 80 | 7822.33 | 7824.85039249436 | 101.438538125693 | -2.52039249436380 | -0.247279570629184 |
| 81 | 8181.22 | 8183.75310663398 | 136.695291393995 | -2.53310663397975 | 0.953584763074233 |
| 82 | 8371.47 | 8374.0053892257 | 144.029288724178 | -2.53538922570406 | 0.198363566572881 |
| 83 | 8347.71 | 8350.23921710754 | 121.051700658928 | -2.52921710754449 | -0.621482221174525 |
| 84 | 8672.11 | 8674.64567291107 | 148.898712863899 | -2.53567291106812 | 0.753191119910407 |
| 85 | 8802.79 | 8777.56885015513 | 142.623015852787 | 25.221149844873 | -0.174676268283618 |
| 86 | 9138.46 | 9139.60046868351 | 172.514008884709 | -1.14046868350967 | 0.78741058187347 |
| 87 | 9123.29 | 9124.41088022865 | 146.807886384767 | -1.12088022865161 | -0.695162404777605 |
| 88 | 9023.21 | 9024.30864954734 | 112.994450835427 | -1.09864954733887 | -0.91445080278711 |
| 89 | 8850.41 | 8851.4864399484 | 73.8537513436139 | -1.07643994839492 | -1.05856010987136 |
| 90 | 8864.58 | 8865.6524370118 | 65.6800280022417 | -1.07243701180828 | -0.221064351685476 |
| 91 | 9163.74 | 9164.82595179866 | 97.6546400260065 | -1.08595179865886 | 0.864794429344212 |
| 92 | 8516.66 | 8517.70874699143 | -4.33384005982002 | -1.0487469914273 | -2.75845109364271 |
| 93 | 8553.44 | 8554.49051964635 | 1.29647987327590 | -1.05051964635045 | 0.152283249500874 |
| 94 | 7555.2 | 7556.21332555107 | -135.583616982515 | -1.01332555107067 | -3.70222671546491 |
| 95 | 7851.22 | 7852.24718672509 | -76.478617885217 | -1.02718672508902 | 1.59863617553322 |
| 96 | 7442 | 7443.01796394945 | -122.044951144962 | -1.01796394944658 | -1.23245629015078 |
| 97 | 7992.53 | 7949.43349181159 | -36.2246524676038 | 43.0965081884122 | 2.38027621180336 |
| 98 | 8264.04 | 8266.31332300849 | 11.9085426029695 | -2.27332300849068 | 1.27191057413278 |
| 99 | 7517.39 | 7519.59311124382 | -91.9852621817703 | -2.20311124382117 | -2.80962772561542 |
| 100 | 7200.4 | 7202.58513439162 | -122.80114939434 | -2.18513439162517 | -0.833398554455185 |
| 101 | 7193.69 | 7195.88313928954 | -106.902176930406 | -2.19313928953686 | 0.429992843692330 |
| 102 | 6193.58 | 6195.71998412694 | -229.226474643052 | -2.13998412693853 | -3.30838015469042 |
| 103 | 5104.21 | 5106.30580661488 | -347.020669364046 | -2.0958066148797 | -3.18591649669571 |
| 104 | 4800.46 | 4802.55772467492 | -341.094948687163 | -2.09772467491556 | 0.160271944492674 |
| 105 | 4461.61 | 4463.70781055924 | -340.787516058197 | -2.09781055923776 | 0.0083151603860756 |
| 106 | 4398.59 | 4400.69698180428 | -302.749137257229 | -2.10698180428214 | 1.02883541325194 |
| 107 | 4243.63 | 4245.74119322935 | -282.510520532841 | -2.11119322934705 | 0.547402958611653 |
| 108 | 4293.82 | 4295.93937561659 | -236.949847608641 | -2.11937561659008 | 1.23230507978733 |
