| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.917492764005406 |
| beta | 0.110092205215912 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 4378.75 | 4816.92751819308 | -438.177518193077 |
| 14 | 4472.93 | 4496.21089354897 | -23.2808935489729 |
| 15 | 4564.07 | 4513.10358455271 | 50.9664154472939 |
| 16 | 4310.54 | 4239.8733072642 | 70.666692735802 |
| 17 | 4171.38 | 4106.45589796015 | 64.9241020398476 |
| 18 | 4049.38 | 3977.94887623674 | 71.4311237632651 |
| 19 | 3591.37 | 4149.49506581446 | -558.125065814463 |
| 20 | 3720.46 | 3399.82009621670 | 320.639903783297 |
| 21 | 4107.23 | 3505.15520732032 | 602.074792679677 |
| 22 | 4101.71 | 4060.68418394558 | 41.0258160544163 |
| 23 | 4162.34 | 4131.56555974045 | 30.7744402595526 |
| 24 | 4136.22 | 3894.08387464931 | 242.136125350693 |
| 25 | 4125.88 | 4154.94897685148 | -29.068976851484 |
| 26 | 4031.48 | 4325.45935120328 | -293.979351203282 |
| 27 | 3761.36 | 4154.43857173772 | -393.078571737716 |
| 28 | 3408.56 | 3533.71369017903 | -125.15369017903 |
| 29 | 3228.47 | 3243.4310620317 | -14.9610620316980 |
| 30 | 3090.45 | 3058.57649918596 | 31.8735008140447 |
| 31 | 2741.14 | 3093.76311739398 | -352.62311739398 |
| 32 | 2980.44 | 2619.18289770903 | 361.257102290968 |
| 33 | 3104.33 | 2805.84420711042 | 298.485792889582 |
| 34 | 3181.57 | 3018.1441663724 | 163.425833627598 |
| 35 | 2863.86 | 3178.15656141591 | -314.296561415905 |
| 36 | 2898.01 | 2666.39603585652 | 231.613964143483 |
| 37 | 3112.33 | 2845.94875378530 | 266.381246214703 |
| 38 | 3254.33 | 3205.72400635576 | 48.6059936442371 |
| 39 | 3513.47 | 3336.80918577878 | 176.660814221217 |
| 40 | 3587.61 | 3351.7434447048 | 235.866555295201 |
| 41 | 3727.45 | 3514.10829742696 | 213.341702573044 |
| 42 | 3793.34 | 3668.52619479052 | 124.813805209481 |
| 43 | 3817.58 | 3918.55387384301 | -100.97387384301 |
| 44 | 3845.13 | 3923.99556679087 | -78.865566790866 |
| 45 | 3931.86 | 3813.57699870634 | 118.283001293661 |
| 46 | 4197.52 | 3958.53144217852 | 238.988557821479 |
| 47 | 4307.13 | 4271.77025223961 | 35.3597477603889 |
| 48 | 4229.43 | 4224.39398643604 | 5.03601356396393 |
| 49 | 4362.28 | 4336.93915489609 | 25.3408451039068 |
| 50 | 4217.34 | 4616.91599552967 | -399.575995529669 |
| 51 | 4361.28 | 4449.25934087327 | -87.9793408732712 |
| 52 | 4327.74 | 4228.69829515672 | 99.0417048432819 |
| 53 | 4417.65 | 4269.9900805267 | 147.659919473294 |
| 54 | 4557.68 | 4355.87501902967 | 201.804980970327 |
| 55 | 4650.35 | 4693.94957717584 | -43.5995771758407 |
| 56 | 4967.18 | 4796.15524089788 | 171.024759102120 |
| 57 | 5123.42 | 4969.59510852716 | 153.824891472836 |
| 58 | 5290.85 | 5214.32273245127 | 76.527267548734 |
| 59 | 5535.66 | 5405.21553752457 | 130.444462475433 |
| 60 | 5514.06 | 5448.8532705348 | 65.2067294652006 |
| 61 | 5493.88 | 5685.92969523329 | -192.049695233293 |
| 62 | 5694.83 | 5801.12967084213 | -106.299670842128 |
| 63 | 5850.41 | 6061.60435771929 | -211.194357719291 |
| 64 | 6116.64 | 5743.8688776575 | 372.771122342502 |
| 65 | 6175 | 6085.83500647657 | 89.1649935234327 |
| 66 | 6513.58 | 6155.59766721843 | 357.982332781573 |
| 67 | 6383.78 | 6731.26288163338 | -347.482881633385 |
| 68 | 6673.66 | 6665.48576003458 | 8.17423996541947 |
| 69 | 6936.61 | 6705.65235616964 | 230.957643830358 |
| 70 | 7300.68 | 7063.28912002935 | 237.390879970652 |
| 71 | 7392.93 | 7478.45176447565 | -85.5217644756458 |
| 72 | 7497.31 | 7294.2860237131 | 203.023976286897 |
| 73 | 7584.71 | 7704.13622379215 | -119.426223792146 |
| 74 | 7160.79 | 8031.94951232763 | -871.15951232763 |
| 75 | 7196.19 | 7636.49312696004 | -440.303126960045 |
| 76 | 7245.63 | 7084.15881646387 | 161.471183536134 |
| 77 | 7347.51 | 7129.29084442936 | 218.219155570639 |
| 78 | 7425.75 | 7276.55492610909 | 149.195073890907 |
| 79 | 7778.51 | 7542.82985474693 | 235.68014525307 |
| 80 | 7822.33 | 8071.68707261266 | -249.35707261266 |
| 81 | 8181.22 | 7850.98990210087 | 330.230097899135 |
| 82 | 8371.47 | 8279.82570997482 | 91.6442900251823 |
| 83 | 8347.71 | 8500.08610434749 | -152.376104347488 |
| 84 | 8672.11 | 8206.79113280938 | 465.318867190617 |
| 85 | 8802.79 | 8819.95727301461 | -17.1672730146129 |
| 86 | 9138.46 | 9200.11413671316 | -61.6541367131595 |
| 87 | 9123.29 | 9759.3846864971 | -636.094686497105 |
| 88 | 9023.21 | 9098.31483897915 | -75.104838979154 |
| 89 | 8850.41 | 8927.78492225431 | -77.3749222543138 |
| 90 | 8864.58 | 8775.42105991466 | 89.1589400853445 |
| 91 | 9163.74 | 9000.88602495431 | 162.853975045686 |
| 92 | 8516.66 | 9441.0806518963 | -924.420651896304 |
| 93 | 8553.44 | 8567.95779799683 | -14.5177979968266 |
| 94 | 7555.2 | 8549.0755763182 | -993.8755763182 |
| 95 | 7851.22 | 7534.92877157304 | 316.291228426959 |
| 96 | 7442 | 7566.61549329302 | -124.615493293017 |
| 97 | 7992.53 | 7373.89045050445 | 618.639549495546 |
| 98 | 8264.04 | 8144.3513033938 | 119.688696606198 |
| 99 | 7517.39 | 8625.34025516097 | -1107.95025516096 |
| 100 | 7200.4 | 7399.17629217925 | -198.776292179252 |
| 101 | 7193.69 | 6945.38035085194 | 248.309649148064 |
| 102 | 6193.58 | 6961.52078944754 | -767.940789447538 |
| 103 | 5104.21 | 6128.92308453093 | -1024.71308453093 |
| 104 | 4800.46 | 4961.83056552194 | -161.370565521944 |
| 105 | 4461.61 | 4540.5469052901 | -78.9369052900956 |
| 106 | 4398.59 | 4113.92388901846 | 284.666110981540 |
| 107 | 4243.63 | 4156.72896436101 | 86.9010356389854 |
| 108 | 4293.82 | 3851.46523822392 | 442.35476177608 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 4072.20688461099 | 3414.03653462214 | 4730.37723459984 |
| 110 | 3940.97750440011 | 2991.7661078309 | 4890.18890096933 |
| 111 | 3837.97900358632 | 2609.53229277538 | 5066.42571439726 |
| 112 | 3600.04735284454 | 2132.45031964165 | 5067.64438604742 |
| 113 | 3325.07845796578 | 1638.79122102413 | 5011.36569490742 |
| 114 | 3016.92775947944 | 1138.42270039448 | 4895.43281856441 |
| 115 | 2808.12376982676 | 685.807296425495 | 4930.44024322802 |
| 116 | 2658.59980265358 | 238.944757062995 | 5078.25484824416 |
| 117 | 2457.07454951061 | -228.977495821141 | 5143.12659484237 |
| 118 | 2227.64673066096 | -699.371999981562 | 5154.66546130347 |
| 119 | 2030.17168991497 | -1184.40237592737 | 5244.74575575732 |
| 120 | 1770.22206128955 | -1566.95727954501 | 5107.40140212411 |
