| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 1915 | 1915 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 1843 | 1843.99431779336 | -71.0878572278306 | -0.994317793362496 | -0.118782434738233 |
| 3 | 1761 | 1760.73098327906 | -82.7960266163255 | 0.269016720944476 | -0.0197979134286433 |
| 4 | 2858 | 2822.07852254198 | 1008.51469586646 | 35.9214774580235 | 1.80930312201797 |
| 5 | 3968 | 3973.66531697558 | 1145.05557395077 | -5.66531697558136 | 0.226651816858512 |
| 6 | 5061 | 5064.75001076945 | 1093.53921250168 | -3.75001076945432 | -0.0855081585733372 |
| 7 | 4661 | 4707.95024201491 | -290.809005748789 | -46.9502420149081 | -2.29777874671134 |
| 8 | 4269 | 4262.81579709793 | -438.111537284517 | 6.18420290207231 | -0.244496699778275 |
| 9 | 3857 | 3855.57711371601 | -408.643564979029 | 1.42288628398723 | 0.048911732379963 |
| 10 | 3568 | 3565.2986173083 | -295.664705840661 | 2.70138269170044 | 0.187525346612445 |
| 11 | 3274 | 3275.62819664525 | -289.943191544671 | -1.62819664525496 | 0.00949672318951281 |
| 12 | 2987 | 2987.82371629392 | -287.901802766272 | -0.823716293917027 | 0.00338835195504231 |
| 13 | 1683 | 1713.56712235695 | -1229.09328966190 | -30.5671223569538 | -1.56288797789183 |
| 14 | 1381 | 1310.58847923549 | -440.188256731552 | 70.4115207645126 | 1.31544286775096 |
| 15 | 1071 | 1115.78963292764 | -211.956642260241 | -44.7896329276447 | 0.382814720271252 |
| 16 | 2772 | 2656.37727082158 | 1417.3902456518 | 115.622729178416 | 2.70100818871470 |
| 17 | 4485 | 4522.43573291238 | 1834.19199689547 | -37.435732912378 | 0.69191532764831 |
| 18 | 6181 | 6141.50930492809 | 1634.28478253756 | 39.4906950719122 | -0.331810694409317 |
| 19 | 5479 | 5624.42982228918 | -364.968921181233 | -145.429822289177 | -3.3184186995403 |
| 20 | 4782 | 4775.8528407719 | -814.37349558736 | 6.14715922809708 | -0.745933775605698 |
| 21 | 4067 | 4056.26948079706 | -726.287659350374 | 10.7305192029450 | 0.14620723998589 |
| 22 | 3489 | 3478.66689042194 | -588.11838202883 | 10.3331095780554 | 0.229337083254824 |
| 23 | 2903 | 2933.57001990285 | -548.139156145035 | -30.5700199028507 | 0.0663586288894683 |
| 24 | 2330 | 2275.39758623601 | -650.388123301669 | 54.6024137639919 | -0.169715967477611 |
| 25 | 1736 | 1789.52878030154 | -497.551705537405 | -53.5287803015409 | 0.253817080946218 |
| 26 | 1483 | 1358.69512767047 | -435.517824043713 | 124.304872329533 | 0.103160040904261 |
| 27 | 1242 | 1360.81582933842 | -34.3595457358069 | -118.815829338419 | 0.669222722740359 |
| 28 | 2334 | 2212.03858623321 | 779.028281892274 | 121.961413766788 | 1.34931369578257 |
| 29 | 3423 | 3503.31693450372 | 1248.84227706923 | -80.316934503724 | 0.779813126068055 |
| 30 | 4523 | 4377.37502345757 | 904.978553551751 | 145.624976542429 | -0.570766233674772 |
| 31 | 3986 | 4155.86452813121 | -128.625373867469 | -169.864528131208 | -1.71560135414889 |
| 32 | 3462 | 3477.50155379676 | -633.02257755839 | -15.5015537967614 | -0.837212454578822 |
| 33 | 2908 | 2895.71191154208 | -586.015721732472 | 12.2880884579188 | 0.0780232446176738 |
| 34 | 2575 | 2556.15594892908 | -359.884048543337 | 18.8440510709248 | 0.375339447186656 |
| 35 | 2237 | 2254.92944466363 | -306.063859348415 | -17.9294446636345 | 0.0893324696921452 |
| 36 | 1904 | 1868.31048068351 | -379.969738312634 | 35.6895193164873 | -0.122671607646575 |
| 37 | 1610 | 1643.48892647039 | -237.656303453972 | -33.4889264703898 | 0.236367686330915 |
| 38 | 1251 | 1137.84448956637 | -483.583488938503 | 113.155510433633 | -0.408410331825218 |
| 39 | 941 | 1081.90698047364 | -94.1583891589908 | -140.906980473639 | 0.648005992213137 |
| 40 | 2450 | 2312.19681880834 | 1114.45402849545 | 137.80318119166 | 2.00602416300433 |
| 41 | 3946 | 4015.43203056638 | 1651.00213730320 | -69.4320305663794 | 0.890443149671629 |
| 42 | 5409 | 5226.22705213235 | 1249.74236455958 | 182.772947867653 | -0.66605263897509 |
| 43 | 4741 | 4952.31071987489 | -139.244484583548 | -211.310719874888 | -2.30546717433684 |
| 44 | 4069 | 4111.01882682801 | -779.231723660451 | -42.0188268280059 | -1.06226887344331 |
| 45 | 3539 | 3523.76325955734 | -604.228826453218 | 15.2367404426565 | 0.290474512133344 |
| 46 | 3189 | 3158.66780754494 | -386.235918611633 | 30.3321924550622 | 0.361830642206055 |
| 47 | 2960 | 2961.76516842858 | -213.639583286423 | -1.76516842858439 | 0.286481270971357 |
| 48 | 2704 | 2701.5272080579 | -256.113326812728 | 2.47279194210022 | -0.0705004546891371 |
| 49 | 1697 | 1728.62859318626 | -909.41822328979 | -31.6285931862648 | -1.08506379466651 |
| 50 | 1598 | 1424.10866382671 | -358.094960988995 | 173.89133617329 | 0.915106245886558 |
| 51 | 1456 | 1651.48212534320 | 173.136180758787 | -195.482125343203 | 0.882959536644735 |
| 52 | 2316 | 2235.67392653673 | 546.746313620669 | 80.326073463267 | 0.620274005397241 |
| 53 | 3083 | 3160.34386444056 | 889.878033750948 | -77.3438644405608 | 0.56940580779805 |
| 54 | 4158 | 3880.08849755857 | 735.391157317516 | 277.911502441432 | -0.256435030215154 |
| 55 | 3469 | 3665.69139932732 | -127.163398260822 | -196.691399327316 | -1.43168605919819 |
| 56 | 2892 | 2968.73774976568 | -644.62138869767 | -76.7377497656808 | -0.858890513139222 |
| 57 | 2578 | 2556.69797954254 | -433.403927005304 | 21.3020204574605 | 0.350584462021206 |
| 58 | 2233 | 2221.43373046111 | -344.278386126272 | 11.5662695388940 | 0.147933212853412 |
| 59 | 1947 | 1964.37640494239 | -265.069358169029 | -17.3764049423858 | 0.1314735334007 |
| 60 | 2049 | 1945.14683438854 | -41.8454611812789 | 103.853165611457 | 0.370530377263508 |
