| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 10284.5 | 10284.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 12792 | 11178.0006250137 | 111.819530865139 | 110.973651365265 | 1.46556684007203 |
| 3 | 12823.61538 | 11805.0209409104 | 160.528437059664 | 158.445820632817 | 0.835148915654928 |
| 4 | 13845.66667 | 12584.1131602931 | 208.035118296676 | 203.324653738897 | 1.01898289532986 |
| 5 | 15335.63636 | 13622.7695948084 | 262.895643531683 | 252.878650179556 | 1.39540317460509 |
| 6 | 11188.5 | 12849.4169400771 | 201.275522155952 | 200.291851305065 | -1.76894259145977 |
| 7 | 13633.25 | 13183.9928433147 | 208.670161409690 | 206.201570004523 | 0.23011101837892 |
| 8 | 12298.46667 | 12941.1903130704 | 184.690066641970 | 188.351835510623 | -0.784802390529522 |
| 9 | 15353.63636 | 13832.4029717134 | 221.277946690684 | 213.65152803808 | 1.23278699680744 |
| 10 | 12696.15385 | 13509.6670727545 | 193.479256126687 | 195.806347026147 | -0.950668440091467 |
| 11 | 12213.93333 | 13119.4155542252 | 163.82110360036 | 178.121940889089 | -1.02009291472283 |
| 12 | 13683.72727 | 13360.3613724045 | 167.735473111296 | 180.292363948145 | 0.134653735166101 |
| 13 | 11214.14286 | 13455.7892066749 | 171.974989508829 | -2075.07799431662 | -0.177190418272952 |
| 14 | 13950.23077 | 13681.0193540784 | 175.302355452837 | 190.809589874979 | 0.0773269028209501 |
| 15 | 11179.13333 | 12786.3646281729 | 114.535443923396 | 156.825381758847 | -1.69803891798577 |
| 16 | 11801.875 | 12446.8365797449 | 90.3485881705442 | 145.350428825921 | -0.752090679267918 |
| 17 | 11188.82353 | 12005.2666752818 | 63.1082011666263 | 134.389581136806 | -0.899678739742892 |
| 18 | 16456.27273 | 13572.3083687124 | 138.462524192561 | 160.313829481077 | 2.56951575518179 |
| 19 | 11110.0625 | 12737.4759060298 | 90.1947053719671 | 145.938372551318 | -1.67045334700007 |
| 20 | 16530.69231 | 14080.4896888586 | 152.136107488979 | 162.129783317106 | 2.15369348706394 |
| 21 | 10038.41176 | 12697.9545197217 | 76.1628835418008 | 144.468654926932 | -2.63847458663471 |
| 22 | 11681.25 | 12337.8812987803 | 54.4875985658019 | 139.935459703266 | -0.74947452681078 |
| 23 | 11148.88235 | 11904.1182151927 | 30.109050016494 | 135.30395682661 | -0.837926575775196 |
| 24 | 8631 | 10719.2761979301 | -30.8796445203961 | 124.696470815857 | -2.08245901937169 |
| 25 | 9386.444444 | 10708.1562127416 | -30.4556246854229 | -1358.83090264957 | 0.0384012644183710 |
| 26 | 9764.736842 | 10285.0890834710 | -52.8032219148085 | 114.403426594338 | -0.612334328272692 |
| 27 | 12043.75 | 10853.5701730321 | -18.8598556140306 | 125.104122908838 | 1.01494119789880 |
| 28 | 12948.06667 | 11551.2935019558 | 19.3090515251865 | 134.377746109282 | 1.19601161434594 |
| 29 | 10987.125 | 11313.6891569561 | 5.82610626724678 | 131.827344407195 | -0.433050641794794 |
| 30 | 11648.3125 | 11389.8018673418 | 9.48514991193954 | 132.375766784764 | 0.118992462234861 |
| 31 | 10633.35294 | 11079.0630876294 | -7.12139379590471 | 130.360313367273 | -0.54306627724927 |
| 32 | 10219.3 | 10721.5743573603 | -25.2678412304869 | 128.535219370353 | -0.594467742916478 |
| 33 | 9037.6 | 10059.1184898258 | -58.2767509747441 | 125.721162392824 | -1.08098750957680 |
| 34 | 10296.31579 | 10061.3880758473 | -55.1368779969586 | 125.952784520851 | 0.102677157673894 |
| 35 | 11705.41176 | 10567.6425124901 | -25.9802542193340 | 127.847488430956 | 0.951565876298631 |
| 36 | 10681.94444 | 10546.1016479528 | -25.7493030842043 | 127.8609076578 | 0.00752094145496387 |
| 37 | 9362.947368 | 10596.9244134358 | -22.5403641131402 | -1369.6492030145 | 0.138772584674055 |
| 38 | 11306.35294 | 10800.0992198359 | -10.1638710327746 | 128.121673785796 | 0.361810250659946 |
| 39 | 10984.45 | 10814.0658126330 | -8.86410050279724 | 128.394971230315 | 0.0398595063337 |
| 40 | 10062.61905 | 10491.656156089 | -25.5745824152579 | 125.865688769123 | -0.524824269424504 |
| 41 | 8118.583333 | 9579.1648766682 | -72.552063106758 | 120.713545988986 | -1.49297462073966 |
| 42 | 8867.48 | 9234.52757090855 | -86.9138386962373 | 119.557669602085 | -0.459042860257614 |
| 43 | 8346.72 | 8818.13448310904 | -104.273497245977 | 118.514299141072 | -0.556291183632599 |
| 44 | 8529.307692 | 8605.36816529494 | -109.985043195555 | 118.252437963843 | -0.183198760812948 |
| 45 | 10697.18182 | 9241.42609354124 | -70.7195220980523 | 119.658977173426 | 1.25957049786890 |
| 46 | 8591.84 | 8920.52456036795 | -83.8883289655605 | 119.280931151903 | -0.422294456120336 |
| 47 | 8695.607143 | 8743.3812810445 | -88.7983904712855 | 119.165051341506 | -0.157371666958283 |
| 48 | 8125.571429 | 8422.325585081 | -101.031880266892 | 118.921878488315 | -0.391855629864747 |
| 49 | 7009.758621 | 8320.21049948783 | -101.084565444588 | -1308.56374884483 | -0.00191117509007912 |
| 50 | 7883.466667 | 8051.80064396142 | -110.088258464870 | 116.90133903832 | -0.271848964717028 |
| 51 | 7527.645161 | 7749.45571907578 | -120.351615085586 | 115.272858768103 | -0.31937803883799 |
| 52 | 6763.758621 | 7276.41844905973 | -139.094533635412 | 113.222702850316 | -0.591423222978227 |
| 53 | 6682.333333 | 6933.48060326773 | -149.899682273902 | 112.409536046902 | -0.34311822312988 |
| 54 | 7855.681818 | 7127.59917174161 | -131.690821488625 | 113.352889640526 | 0.579842258504568 |
| 55 | 6738.88 | 6863.14856403698 | -138.712084072729 | 113.101906529589 | -0.223841077911853 |
| 56 | 7895.434783 | 7103.69228851225 | -118.663030556368 | 113.598282436444 | 0.63941754856377 |
| 57 | 6361.884615 | 6720.8495201476 | -132.625841091782 | 113.357555753568 | -0.445327217279059 |
| 58 | 6935.956522 | 6672.28241552737 | -128.183347540341 | 113.411280858494 | 0.141671873380362 |
| 59 | 8344.454545 | 7149.22235035013 | -96.2022689670068 | 113.685178528527 | 1.01970608868122 |
| 60 | 9107.944444 | 7749.45195552104 | -59.3933602652303 | 113.911171510688 | 1.17341899904332 |
