| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.07884880815518 | 0.021506092449984 | 0.0211511918448191 | 1.52963603821458 |
| 3 | 6 | 5.98081389252993 | 0.0196210034839888 | 0.0191861074700705 | -0.801081630437777 |
| 4 | 5.9 | 5.8806974440651 | 0.0171237270371641 | 0.0193025559349021 | -0.799935278947233 |
| 5 | 5.8 | 5.78108815167059 | 0.0140527026745525 | 0.0189118483294073 | -0.777645075668014 |
| 6 | 5.7 | 5.68146257095776 | 0.0104867702924174 | 0.0185374290422363 | -0.75523168838216 |
| 7 | 5.6 | 5.5818085261228 | 0.00651170061781887 | 0.0181914738772051 | -0.729844260706367 |
| 8 | 5.4 | 5.38304916150118 | -0.00179307611904878 | 0.0169508384988162 | -1.35693753496063 |
| 9 | 5.4 | 5.38158935004924 | -0.00177825899900189 | 0.0184106499507612 | 0.00219809645207262 |
| 10 | 5.5 | 5.48109825571713 | 0.00309370584769649 | 0.018901744282871 | 0.666675182117168 |
| 11 | 5.6 | 5.58106636186441 | 0.00807173407984241 | 0.0189336381355904 | 0.636426540786974 |
| 12 | 5.7 | 5.68085312693168 | 0.0130549010288591 | 0.0191468730683169 | 0.601498343837729 |
| 13 | 5.9 | 5.9773419778874 | 0.0209125052151983 | -0.0773419778873993 | 2.21508419190292 |
| 14 | 6.1 | 6.08917510333549 | 0.0273773709266605 | 0.0108248966645065 | 0.507280713144852 |
| 15 | 6 | 5.99351037283877 | 0.0198867847500754 | 0.0064896271612301 | -0.802957580818163 |
| 16 | 5.8 | 5.79328481101275 | 0.00616177418513105 | 0.006715188987245 | -1.43433420819565 |
| 17 | 5.8 | 5.79040339739136 | 0.00558228993531618 | 0.0095966026086434 | -0.0588758815277227 |
| 18 | 5.7 | 5.69260724985264 | -0.00119305111860298 | 0.00739275014736436 | -0.672481894469816 |
| 19 | 5.5 | 5.4924861031196 | -0.0144831339901178 | 0.00751389688039589 | -1.29307690457191 |
| 20 | 5.3 | 5.29372235341134 | -0.0269980557961081 | 0.00627764658865619 | -1.19708640493505 |
| 21 | 5.2 | 5.19170791706359 | -0.0321644311217447 | 0.00829208293641082 | -0.48702920834903 |
| 22 | 5.2 | 5.19063437628873 | -0.0299974103452812 | 0.00936562371127295 | 0.201751549253228 |
| 23 | 5 | 4.99328022398454 | -0.0417843741092933 | 0.00671977601545689 | -1.08556691450785 |
| 24 | 5.1 | 5.09056384911272 | -0.0319153865619695 | 0.009436150887284 | 0.901520025084876 |
| 25 | 5.1 | 5.16914873806469 | -0.0246871781444536 | -0.0691487380646942 | 0.781885054008576 |
| 26 | 5.2 | 5.19018446917844 | -0.0212497538881903 | 0.00981553082155947 | 0.271193288844019 |
| 27 | 4.9 | 4.89828077600158 | -0.0408759769876554 | 0.00171922399842354 | -1.75352693601003 |
| 28 | 4.8 | 4.79539959618549 | -0.0453808676869526 | 0.00460040381450809 | -0.401373510111418 |
| 29 | 4.5 | 4.49613858087191 | -0.0639085674474407 | 0.00386141912809288 | -1.64331607786774 |
| 30 | 4.5 | 4.49072297243223 | -0.0596246536884174 | 0.00927702756776707 | 0.378560208904886 |
| 31 | 4.4 | 4.39349943229872 | -0.0623866139156848 | 0.006500567701279 | -0.243303499934338 |
| 32 | 4.4 | 4.3933599153963 | -0.0578022539319941 | 0.00664008460370301 | 0.402756441979409 |
| 33 | 4.2 | 4.19724190768549 | -0.0680113421442882 | 0.00275809231451025 | -0.894853206835917 |
| 34 | 4.1 | 4.08988793987476 | -0.0709207211864103 | 0.0101120601252424 | -0.254511840152121 |
| 35 | 3.9 | 3.89815198280308 | -0.0798706248766471 | 0.00184801719691903 | -0.78156431551142 |
| 36 | 3.8 | 3.79322121014328 | -0.0817278823740084 | 0.0067787898567181 | -0.162036599737284 |
| 37 | 3.9 | 3.9401539810759 | -0.0651558348692222 | -0.0401539810759024 | 1.56651754070755 |
| 38 | 4.2 | 4.18187184769333 | -0.0421247978703715 | 0.0181281523066671 | 1.87004402768307 |
| 39 | 4.1 | 4.10109719577813 | -0.0450017564418658 | -0.00109719577812907 | -0.250035773377558 |
| 40 | 3.8 | 3.79598262698776 | -0.0643580364420527 | 0.00401737301224230 | -1.68135936194194 |
| 41 | 3.6 | 3.59820658684057 | -0.0742937758376488 | 0.00179341315942727 | -0.862497209824643 |
| 42 | 3.7 | 3.68509853743323 | -0.0622832402415998 | 0.0149014625667696 | 1.04200965505825 |
| 43 | 3.5 | 3.49879582636976 | -0.0715287399007832 | 0.00120417363024326 | -0.801727117250042 |
| 44 | 3.4 | 3.39102150805701 | -0.0742318929348198 | 0.00897849194299096 | -0.234306505665383 |
| 45 | 3.1 | 3.10135690759451 | -0.090304158839998 | -0.00135690759450704 | -1.39262646837832 |
| 46 | 3.1 | 3.08457632567703 | -0.0848172873631888 | 0.0154236743229741 | 0.47527926407406 |
| 47 | 3.1 | 3.09429375033841 | -0.0777600725696301 | 0.00570624966159481 | 0.611148465526161 |
| 48 | 3.2 | 3.19298645835192 | -0.0645930659443174 | 0.00701354164807784 | 1.14009233794824 |
| 49 | 3.3 | 3.35273618860181 | -0.0479862437124517 | -0.0527361886018095 | 1.51226097657081 |
| 50 | 3.5 | 3.48072067290545 | -0.0348315493139966 | 0.0192793270945480 | 1.08868800693393 |
| 51 | 3.6 | 3.59440210036854 | -0.0237389574813225 | 0.00559789963145971 | 0.960308896214668 |
| 52 | 3.5 | 3.49585695527987 | -0.0293260501325651 | 0.00414304472012664 | -0.483341446501009 |
| 53 | 3.3 | 3.30672158577066 | -0.0412631631007524 | -0.00672158577066073 | -1.03268373535159 |
| 54 | 3.2 | 3.18419733750798 | -0.0473336081685154 | 0.0158026624920215 | -0.525128986295893 |
| 55 | 3.1 | 3.10017755206214 | -0.0500743730394271 | -0.000177552062141973 | -0.237075410837949 |
| 56 | 3.2 | 3.18270208583513 | -0.0401675160373335 | 0.0172979141648653 | 0.856887313562906 |
| 57 | 3 | 3.00727807172696 | -0.0502734642826878 | -0.00727807172695857 | -0.874061653703504 |
| 58 | 3 | 2.98431228219589 | -0.0482330071032828 | 0.0156877178041127 | 0.176472542310693 |
| 59 | 3.1 | 3.09323284994450 | -0.0364893619244272 | 0.00676715005550279 | 1.01567524940561 |
| 60 | 3.4 | 3.39004921441626 | -0.0115931649931183 | 0.0099507855837353 | 2.15284544647217 |
