Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 14.2 | 14.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 13.5 | 13.6962936202158 | -0.0218460906336913 | -0.196293620215784 | -0.510961302574374 |
3 | 11.9 | 12.5702624714998 | -0.0799509747537027 | -0.670262471499777 | -1.28905027878636 |
4 | 14.6 | 13.5370438654530 | -0.0461511236863038 | 1.06295613454698 | 1.46329923993990 |
5 | 15.6 | 14.8464248791018 | -0.0239254680788868 | 0.753575120898171 | 1.95715040105429 |
6 | 14.1 | 14.6933425081781 | -0.0252516531120534 | -0.593342508178087 | -0.186791276444708 |
7 | 14.9 | 14.7846758745439 | -0.0241722368094329 | 0.115324125456086 | 0.168450679883035 |
8 | 14.2 | 14.4884285371524 | -0.026809952089474 | -0.288428537152382 | -0.392773401016692 |
9 | 14.6 | 14.5009388600968 | -0.0264128347322480 | 0.0990611399032352 | 0.0567382164401477 |
10 | 17.2 | 15.9906933974858 | -0.0109231754860895 | 1.20930660251417 | 2.18754213010685 |
11 | 15.4 | 15.9531568795025 | -0.0111935144893430 | -0.55315687950249 | -0.0383985440214962 |
12 | 14.3 | 15.0428351737731 | -0.0202241712770097 | -0.742835173773071 | -1.29732709720659 |
13 | 17.5 | 15.8445774986595 | -0.0439215903861529 | 1.65542250134053 | 1.28248841532129 |
14 | 14.5 | 15.1386898929531 | -0.0440762184398627 | -0.638689892953074 | -0.956503842745318 |
15 | 14.4 | 15.3125085376162 | -0.0395886555083069 | -0.912508537616215 | 0.290041437516813 |
16 | 16.6 | 15.7595887304915 | -0.0285755810519530 | 0.840411269508474 | 0.669989945447174 |
17 | 16.7 | 15.8833206620207 | -0.0260199957618279 | 0.816679337979287 | 0.217177605013153 |
18 | 16.6 | 16.5663305059722 | -0.0181442950745629 | 0.0336694940277693 | 1.02223378168815 |
19 | 16.9 | 16.7138164028435 | -0.0167963714325205 | 0.186183597156455 | 0.239206876790042 |
20 | 15.7 | 16.4580578485087 | -0.0185438447733307 | -0.758057848508664 | -0.345069547894469 |
21 | 16.4 | 16.6882200247152 | -0.0166973840672004 | -0.288220024715194 | 0.359040185774239 |
22 | 18.4 | 16.9319367557831 | -0.0148072290730592 | 1.46806324421694 | 0.375838750550512 |
23 | 16.9 | 17.0767935804617 | -0.0139431355412167 | -0.176793580461684 | 0.230235386400481 |
24 | 16.5 | 17.3491456998188 | -0.0137442623144000 | -0.849145699818803 | 0.41346327500924 |
25 | 18.3 | 16.9193860039223 | -0.0116906700844613 | 1.38061399607775 | -0.609305430076157 |
26 | 15.1 | 16.3534377019843 | -0.0125862934937511 | -1.2534377019843 | -0.79657961809902 |
27 | 15.7 | 16.5418742525155 | -0.0103600918800077 | -0.841874252515507 | 0.279518673783194 |
28 | 18.1 | 17.0212199201116 | -0.00290334362451252 | 1.07878007988838 | 0.682027894419079 |
29 | 16.8 | 16.7142445080592 | -0.00723011557934332 | 0.0857554919407617 | -0.43139289913556 |
30 | 18.9 | 17.7838474680002 | 0.00487658768126743 | 1.11615253199985 | 1.54656750785754 |
31 | 19 | 18.4208611098164 | 0.0103573765296951 | 0.579138890183553 | 0.911993503563147 |
32 | 18.1 | 18.8217904250746 | 0.0131587939088284 | -0.721790425074643 | 0.564106828493199 |
33 | 17.8 | 18.5966672148395 | 0.0116609695805094 | -0.796667214839529 | -0.344116422627190 |
34 | 21.5 | 19.3717207720338 | 0.0156081321537201 | 2.12827922796619 | 1.10155994887272 |
35 | 17.1 | 18.4481432137171 | 0.0125830048153362 | -1.34814321371715 | -1.35410045289478 |
36 | 18.7 | 18.7456577462286 | 0.0128163868799370 | -0.0456577462286247 | 0.411320851329926 |
37 | 19 | 18.1060238119363 | 0.0128228094228599 | 0.89397618806374 | -0.94318038422607 |
38 | 16.4 | 17.8638916026368 | 0.012031102129274 | -1.46389160263678 | -0.364909874229781 |
39 | 16.9 | 17.8719629558072 | 0.0119996193423882 | -0.971962955807191 | -0.00558288949162498 |
40 | 18.6 | 17.6989694758117 | 0.00993532789428276 | 0.901030524188335 | -0.260187794118112 |
41 | 19.3 | 18.7753544015383 | 0.0223781798086232 | 0.524645598461683 | 1.51362961246257 |
42 | 19.4 | 18.8600531426583 | 0.0230238900156075 | 0.539946857341671 | 0.0893083145149912 |
43 | 17.6 | 18.0297507890655 | 0.0157359945700344 | -0.429750789065486 | -1.22942482034335 |
44 | 18.6 | 18.5809601148936 | 0.0194460942434223 | 0.0190398851063878 | 0.77294592443537 |
45 | 18.1 | 18.9541157807890 | 0.0214121214346974 | -0.854115780788967 | 0.51059396860266 |
46 | 20.4 | 18.4442703095337 | 0.0192026570312551 | 1.95572969046633 | -0.766288873106567 |
47 | 18.1 | 18.9065524914277 | 0.0203767240500655 | -0.80655249142769 | 0.638717058582607 |
48 | 19.6 | 19.1761600539987 | 0.0207527011184142 | 0.423839946001302 | 0.359315647383104 |
49 | 19.9 | 19.0705280477479 | 0.0205402529781829 | 0.829471952252136 | -0.181938014290561 |
50 | 19.2 | 19.8980707578793 | 0.0235132400234149 | -0.698070757879328 | 1.15412229369438 |
51 | 17.8 | 19.4901506804105 | 0.0206687710323164 | -1.69015068041052 | -0.611959182569259 |
52 | 19.2 | 19.0818366549179 | 0.0168603129674556 | 0.118163345082099 | -0.60712352175694 |
53 | 22 | 20.2248169408139 | 0.0277871043690181 | 1.77518305918609 | 1.60147036004313 |
54 | 21.1 | 20.3966885582917 | 0.0291123025897494 | 0.703311441708282 | 0.206319304538089 |
55 | 19.5 | 20.3314861417559 | 0.0283612770781370 | -0.831486141755915 | -0.135715902666664 |
56 | 22.2 | 21.3243372868315 | 0.0346525444628367 | 0.875662713168459 | 1.39088119093849 |
57 | 20.9 | 21.5988155316594 | 0.0358768768914523 | -0.698815531659421 | 0.345947200063953 |
58 | 22.2 | 21.0810932714245 | 0.0337927449160374 | 1.11890672857555 | -0.7981356278653 |
59 | 23.5 | 22.7452561272502 | 0.0380830958354673 | 0.754743872749791 | 2.3493292309355 |
60 | 21.5 | 22.1671161311025 | 0.0368199501355184 | -0.667116131102471 | -0.887476799362390 |
61 | 24.3 | 22.9300612000130 | 0.0385877168929082 | 1.36993879998703 | 1.04361331108593 |
62 | 22.8 | 23.2308831796378 | 0.0396008318279125 | -0.430883179637832 | 0.375146174328563 |
63 | 20.3 | 22.6375674740528 | 0.0359232147716827 | -2.33756747405279 | -0.900854601113942 |
64 | 23.7 | 23.3517188547394 | 0.0409833004893464 | 0.348281145260555 | 0.963769543552018 |
65 | 23.3 | 22.5656292225158 | 0.0341608227293757 | 0.73437077748417 | -1.17859557606987 |
66 | 19.6 | 20.6388584469645 | 0.0182954704975575 | -1.03885844696454 | -2.80788066228598 |
67 | 18 | 19.7138562561804 | 0.0114594678733042 | -1.71385625618036 | -1.35616078818596 |
68 | 17.3 | 17.9630226369832 | 0.000778064530874426 | -0.663022636983215 | -2.53892632526007 |
69 | 16.8 | 17.4806259685557 | -0.00153895237867139 | -0.680625968555701 | -0.696448362145635 |
70 | 18.2 | 17.5804328557332 | -0.00117067445069441 | 0.619567144266806 | 0.146037657290146 |
71 | 16.5 | 16.5566294477317 | -0.00400215643104431 | -0.0566294477316673 | -1.47289973064485 |
72 | 16 | 16.6527506842698 | -0.00375817701028089 | -0.652750684269753 | 0.144091047663971 |
73 | 18.4 | 16.8769270349950 | -0.00311478899010797 | 1.52307296500497 | 0.327384222430384 |