Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 0.6348 | 0.6348 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 0.634 | 0.634043775797653 | -4.14019524637114e-05 | -4.37757976527463e-05 | -0.0565668498210342 |
3 | 0.62915 | 0.629298612086866 | -6.71087687042004e-05 | -0.000148612086866151 | -0.586282872673047 |
4 | 0.62168 | 0.62187555040857 | -9.54878514834116e-05 | -0.000195550408570217 | -0.916754315403155 |
5 | 0.61328 | 0.61350953878865 | -0.000129179058897638 | -0.000229538788649658 | -1.03071856535967 |
6 | 0.6089 | 0.609073231484365 | -0.000146714463847507 | -0.000173231484365154 | -0.536774383662716 |
7 | 0.60857 | 0.608696633837391 | -0.000147646354980016 | -0.000126633837391283 | -0.0286488862045854 |
8 | 0.62672 | 0.62648368734009 | -7.52387586440856e-05 | 0.000236312659910695 | 2.23507033236324 |
9 | 0.62291 | 0.623158572386925 | -8.83067050178318e-05 | -0.000248572386925168 | -0.405005076359817 |
10 | 0.62393 | 0.623980071198226 | -8.46629737372267e-05 | -5.00711982260674e-05 | 0.113380616132610 |
11 | 0.61838 | 0.618583019749126 | -0.000105853988011067 | -0.000203019749126295 | -0.662028516588124 |
12 | 0.62012 | 0.620159255051431 | -9.91708255689625e-05 | -3.92550514314409e-05 | 0.209619928023016 |
13 | 0.61659 | 0.617003162246681 | 2.92164355971801e-05 | -0.000413162246681057 | -0.458181136186446 |
14 | 0.6116 | 0.61172367305957 | -9.62159322930973e-05 | -0.000123673059570553 | -0.565838730284064 |
15 | 0.61573 | 0.615638075615706 | -8.12126883100111e-05 | 9.19243842942786e-05 | 0.499172265384509 |
16 | 0.61407 | 0.61422240380813 | -8.35026903415249e-05 | -0.000152403808130171 | -0.166136859688344 |
17 | 0.62823 | 0.627848756999033 | -5.70994857941775e-05 | 0.000381243000967266 | 1.70679881994831 |
18 | 0.64405 | 0.643632160286069 | -2.59968424773669e-05 | 0.000417839713931348 | 1.97205033985364 |
19 | 0.6387 | 0.639348957373977 | -3.43360630986668e-05 | -0.000648957373976545 | -0.529996744075801 |
20 | 0.63633 | 0.636063640363847 | -4.06895915146999e-05 | 0.000266359636152796 | -0.404726978093259 |
21 | 0.63059 | 0.630973264012296 | -5.05368691862032e-05 | -0.000383264012296115 | -0.628653264124264 |
22 | 0.62994 | 0.629839786313649 | -5.26512621167694e-05 | 0.000100213686350915 | -0.134819617225985 |
23 | 0.63709 | 0.637024948473746 | -3.78276911356679e-05 | 6.50515262541327e-05 | 0.901158016531734 |
24 | 0.64217 | 0.642014441243823 | -3.09817630615673e-05 | 0.000155558756176972 | 0.625615995978485 |
25 | 0.65711 | 0.654008914474841 | -0.000257347836812689 | 0.00310108552515894 | 1.63678159256294 |
26 | 0.66977 | 0.66961027501545 | -2.56648881213365e-05 | 0.000159724984549867 | 1.80766020185603 |
27 | 0.68255 | 0.681808762090737 | 1.67866286643057e-05 | 0.000741237909263325 | 1.52002415379452 |
28 | 0.68902 | 0.689203908063036 | 2.54321665369694e-05 | -0.000183908063036399 | 0.918347673317461 |
29 | 0.71322 | 0.712339956891185 | 5.54116653666675e-05 | 0.000880043108814982 | 2.87629889279836 |
30 | 0.70224 | 0.702436320161195 | 4.17709080785731e-05 | -0.000196320161195255 | -1.23947832711184 |
31 | 0.70045 | 0.700917479398324 | 3.96302418008324e-05 | -0.000467479398324185 | -0.194229980239109 |
32 | 0.69919 | 0.698757247024607 | 3.66210427634495e-05 | 0.000432752975393434 | -0.273789348114225 |
33 | 0.69693 | 0.697166002131253 | 3.43985842123414e-05 | -0.000236002131253049 | -0.202599722514456 |
34 | 0.69763 | 0.697571634211625 | 3.49139008352257e-05 | 5.83657883744542e-05 | 0.0462037325089274 |
35 | 0.69278 | 0.69287664973795 | 2.77410337120586e-05 | -9.66497379507568e-05 | -0.588777664628847 |
36 | 0.70196 | 0.701643900096179 | 3.06730087737229e-05 | 0.000316099903821047 | 1.08709314853119 |
37 | 0.69215 | 0.693646465037395 | 0.000123725102927740 | -0.00149646503739542 | -1.05565262408303 |
38 | 0.6769 | 0.677774149404473 | -4.01267637211755e-05 | -0.000874149404472806 | -1.87796195030779 |
39 | 0.67124 | 0.670808719195376 | -6.3736237328819e-05 | 0.000431280804623693 | -0.86034447248294 |
40 | 0.66532 | 0.666796169630104 | -6.77111726352793e-05 | -0.00147616963010449 | -0.491449036653395 |
41 | 0.67157 | 0.670140900869694 | -6.43008226161582e-05 | 0.00142909913030592 | 0.424652272371464 |
42 | 0.66428 | 0.664879176953151 | -6.99999802085563e-05 | -0.000599176953150763 | -0.646772973962655 |
43 | 0.66576 | 0.666111268803962 | -6.85552083535888e-05 | -0.000351268803962295 | 0.162033934744073 |
44 | 0.66942 | 0.668880849640045 | -6.5417368908221e-05 | 0.000539150359955356 | 0.353180905761929 |
45 | 0.6813 | 0.681053688418615 | -5.18824598589055e-05 | 0.000246311581384771 | 1.52294352820467 |
46 | 0.69144 | 0.69083976047504 | -4.05243196551376e-05 | 0.000600239524960272 | 1.22430799130474 |
47 | 0.69862 | 0.699022640706795 | -3.02642941436875e-05 | -0.000402640706794936 | 1.02354165671426 |
48 | 0.695 | 0.694839967600024 | -2.92302417333965e-05 | 0.000160032399975887 | -0.51647898515867 |
49 | 0.69867 | 0.69773954557356 | -5.26236211033291e-05 | 0.000930454426440282 | 0.378248018047598 |
50 | 0.68968 | 0.690621020073305 | -0.000106723052281708 | -0.000941020073305363 | -0.843503353862849 |
51 | 0.69233 | 0.691554537969385 | -0.000103232713822252 | 0.000775462030614695 | 0.129121422277859 |
52 | 0.68293 | 0.685073982292132 | -0.000109541623784688 | -0.00214398229213170 | -0.793672419050343 |
53 | 0.68399 | 0.682372306989461 | -0.000111703352653755 | 0.00161769301053887 | -0.32255152923866 |
54 | 0.66895 | 0.67026899634846 | -0.000122950053434896 | -0.00131899634845996 | -1.49214259168660 |
55 | 0.68756 | 0.686706940139958 | -0.000106968863347186 | 0.000853059860041534 | 2.06070863365380 |
56 | 0.68527 | 0.685565481695672 | -0.000107964890983330 | -0.000295481695672165 | -0.128723757344901 |
57 | 0.6776 | 0.678307580003903 | -0.000114901390153306 | -0.000707580003903233 | -0.889688491672784 |
58 | 0.68137 | 0.681022276578974 | -0.000111959441727345 | 0.000347723421025753 | 0.352123305817686 |
59 | 0.67933 | 0.679700968497827 | -0.000113231299108571 | -0.00037096849782673 | -0.150509747255192 |
60 | 0.67922 | 0.67925632172993 | -0.000113030941972195 | -3.63217299293497e-05 | -0.0412272507041686 |