Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.66962132181715 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 0.61659 | 0.612497500972189 | 0.00409249902781061 |
14 | 0.6116 | 0.609477852953774 | 0.00212214704622571 |
15 | 0.61573 | 0.615158227348706 | 0.000571772651294267 |
16 | 0.61407 | 0.614161909656626 | -9.1909656625977e-05 |
17 | 0.62823 | 0.6280860151228 | 0.000143984877200243 |
18 | 0.64405 | 0.643136853854259 | 0.00091314614574145 |
19 | 0.6387 | 0.615711816060138 | 0.0229881839398619 |
20 | 0.63633 | 0.652568374770993 | -0.0162383747709927 |
21 | 0.63059 | 0.640196745644255 | -0.00960674564425479 |
22 | 0.62994 | 0.636568216833885 | -0.00662821683388526 |
23 | 0.63709 | 0.627053517654655 | 0.0100364823453450 |
24 | 0.64217 | 0.634272190935844 | 0.0078978090641565 |
25 | 0.65711 | 0.635381124861123 | 0.021728875138877 |
26 | 0.66977 | 0.643126410940054 | 0.026643589059946 |
27 | 0.68255 | 0.664948883103742 | 0.0176011168962579 |
28 | 0.68902 | 0.674894868952347 | 0.0141251310476532 |
29 | 0.71322 | 0.699928321453581 | 0.0132916785464188 |
30 | 0.70224 | 0.725875451407125 | -0.0236354514071250 |
31 | 0.70045 | 0.686888437618467 | 0.0135615623815333 |
32 | 0.69919 | 0.70505955943636 | -0.00586955943635947 |
33 | 0.69693 | 0.701769731679134 | -0.00483973167913399 |
34 | 0.69763 | 0.702615579996933 | -0.00498557999693339 |
35 | 0.69278 | 0.699619890729639 | -0.00683989072963931 |
36 | 0.70196 | 0.694710478407869 | 0.00724952159213132 |
37 | 0.69215 | 0.699737775508837 | -0.00758777550883682 |
38 | 0.6769 | 0.688879878046408 | -0.0119798780464085 |
39 | 0.67124 | 0.681751226894113 | -0.0105112268941132 |
40 | 0.66532 | 0.671704469979952 | -0.00638446997995168 |
41 | 0.67157 | 0.682223139164555 | -0.0106531391645552 |
42 | 0.66428 | 0.679558931514768 | -0.0152789315147677 |
43 | 0.66576 | 0.658950519108131 | 0.00680948089186895 |
44 | 0.66942 | 0.666074695202517 | 0.00334530479748285 |
45 | 0.6813 | 0.669282977878984 | 0.0120170221210159 |
46 | 0.69144 | 0.68127125354148 | 0.0101687464585204 |
47 | 0.69862 | 0.687811360464139 | 0.0108086395358614 |
48 | 0.695 | 0.699369288308636 | -0.00436928830863603 |
49 | 0.69867 | 0.691740156022961 | 0.00692984397703855 |
50 | 0.68968 | 0.689056241671674 | 0.000623758328326174 |
51 | 0.69233 | 0.690825445932794 | 0.00150455406720562 |
52 | 0.68293 | 0.690097840493339 | -0.00716784049333918 |
53 | 0.68399 | 0.69901943908038 | -0.0150294390803799 |
54 | 0.66895 | 0.691871173926501 | -0.0229211739265007 |
55 | 0.68756 | 0.673354598081097 | 0.0142054019189030 |
56 | 0.68527 | 0.684297402998745 | 0.000972597001255071 |
57 | 0.6776 | 0.688802500116735 | -0.0112025001167348 |
58 | 0.68137 | 0.684598615739255 | -0.00322861573925481 |
59 | 0.67933 | 0.682354259245283 | -0.00302425924528293 |
60 | 0.67922 | 0.679669736423884 | -0.000449736423883906 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 0.678424441319921 | 0.655843630819011 | 0.701005251820831 |
62 | 0.669313770075471 | 0.642260794643202 | 0.69636674550774 |
63 | 0.670932101888988 | 0.639923480247097 | 0.70194072353088 |
64 | 0.666483927742407 | 0.632140305001961 | 0.700827550482853 |
65 | 0.677289834037542 | 0.63940654137935 | 0.715173126695734 |
66 | 0.677433546186646 | 0.636673722185749 | 0.718193370187543 |
67 | 0.686569538829388 | 0.642707126635386 | 0.73043195102339 |
68 | 0.683633434893761 | 0.63743344436689 | 0.729833425420631 |
69 | 0.683426662890744 | 0.634874514509401 | 0.731978811272087 |
70 | 0.689398792834897 | 0.638241194377664 | 0.740556391292131 |
71 | 0.689370561464864 | 0.636081682416199 | 0.742659440513529 |
72 | 0.689551747635884 | -25.9473178257186 | 27.3264213209903 |