| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 130 | 130 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 136.7 | 136.367057828602 | 0.630208184674506 | 0.33294217139793 | 0.272842817566885 |
| 3 | 138.1 | 137.768724550275 | 0.794038097596958 | 0.331275449725199 | 0.0499837910544096 |
| 4 | 139.5 | 139.169692012107 | 0.953164950046443 | 0.330307987893046 | 0.0380816851227145 |
| 5 | 140.4 | 140.069631636707 | 0.937815643949498 | 0.330368363292941 | -0.00328146923356395 |
| 6 | 144.6 | 144.272218645449 | 1.92194982112160 | 0.327781354551030 | 0.199505914391713 |
| 7 | 151.4 | 151.074895810215 | 3.42413007092849 | 0.325104189785074 | 0.296985923938357 |
| 8 | 147.9 | 147.572277302328 | 1.27117173613999 | 0.32772269767161 | -0.420644306343971 |
| 9 | 141.5 | 141.170282422522 | -1.12493196443187 | 0.329717577477688 | -0.465548323432991 |
| 10 | 143.8 | 143.470894280492 | -0.0528573227405167 | 0.329105719508506 | 0.207751253142674 |
| 11 | 143.6 | 143.270876230316 | -0.0989624633882864 | 0.329123769683694 | -0.00892340455994578 |
| 12 | 150.5 | 150.171465652433 | 2.09510767367058 | 0.328534347567275 | 0.424403096274875 |
| 13 | 150.1 | 153.314222495505 | 2.41269254797843 | -3.21422249550453 | 0.0733323664042182 |
| 14 | 154.9 | 154.632046683188 | 2.09059321989080 | 0.267953316811941 | -0.0550740527935843 |
| 15 | 162.1 | 161.840391276096 | 3.69973421064062 | 0.259608723904112 | 0.309496421253031 |
| 16 | 176.7 | 176.452599279098 | 7.12501872782178 | 0.247400720902381 | 0.660607469422424 |
| 17 | 186.6 | 186.354731580756 | 7.99611327774849 | 0.245268419243931 | 0.168217224225065 |
| 18 | 194.8 | 194.554839092645 | 8.060083831815 | 0.245160907355309 | 0.0123608491103113 |
| 19 | 196.3 | 196.052464976282 | 6.00230025392198 | 0.247535023718065 | -0.397733162419592 |
| 20 | 228.8 | 228.559046820038 | 14.3132558776717 | 0.240953179962246 | 1.60657663713145 |
| 21 | 267.2 | 266.963153345359 | 21.8676301968556 | 0.236846654641158 | 1.46041567835275 |
| 22 | 237.2 | 236.957083821215 | 5.60067540458895 | 0.242916178784985 | -3.14483021246542 |
| 23 | 254.7 | 254.458039571973 | 9.33255133199796 | 0.241960428026839 | 0.721479912865826 |
| 24 | 258.2 | 257.957718023774 | 7.50335166549481 | 0.242281976225541 | -0.353639719235440 |
| 25 | 257.9 | 261.306046989247 | 6.22011184848393 | -3.40604698924655 | -0.271182100385260 |
| 26 | 269.6 | 269.265605797001 | 6.74385829763111 | 0.33439420299912 | 0.0944157221534327 |
| 27 | 266.9 | 266.555575730354 | 3.77388286423888 | 0.344424269646375 | -0.572238442842766 |
| 28 | 269.6 | 269.254793351029 | 3.43665443749521 | 0.345206648971427 | -0.0650923936875169 |
| 29 | 253.9 | 253.545226466808 | -2.56862919323225 | 0.354773533192117 | -1.16013337661295 |
| 30 | 258.6 | 258.247720289902 | -0.28839848783271 | 0.352279710098033 | 0.440683416779277 |
| 31 | 274.2 | 273.851461673947 | 4.69516342349625 | 0.348538326053149 | 0.963317664498001 |
| 32 | 301.5 | 301.155115155358 | 11.7848944064614 | 0.344884844642375 | 1.37055962912208 |
| 33 | 304.5 | 304.154140609704 | 9.02971324150773 | 0.34585939029616 | -0.532643318661363 |
| 34 | 285.1 | 284.751975891273 | 0.11352690597516 | 0.348024108727178 | -1.72374891935216 |
| 35 | 287.7 | 287.352105841634 | 0.893333930100083 | 0.347894158366242 | 0.150759969462628 |
| 36 | 265.5 | 265.151277430633 | -6.3491655007422 | 0.348722569367069 | -1.40019739405715 |
| 37 | 264.1 | 266.984017672203 | -3.80867081523427 | -2.88401767220313 | 0.52129495213587 |
| 38 | 276.1 | 275.706428229419 | 0.00571458472281927 | 0.393571770580869 | 0.702245328349281 |
| 39 | 258.9 | 258.492909667148 | -5.40137346438244 | 0.407090332851748 | -1.04273022036732 |
| 40 | 239.1 | 238.685147965348 | -9.9214001008343 | 0.41485203465207 | -0.872826881480062 |
| 41 | 250.1 | 249.692887278613 | -3.35709387020559 | 0.40711272138743 | 1.26837748428990 |
| 42 | 276.8 | 276.400518292493 | 6.07136162915467 | 0.399481707506643 | 1.82233684748827 |
| 43 | 297.6 | 297.203084808251 | 10.6909887667440 | 0.396915191749157 | 0.893008351968816 |
| 44 | 295.4 | 295.00154302172 | 6.64795512717441 | 0.398456978279838 | -0.78159982278172 |
| 45 | 283 | 282.599979341105 | 0.674046795508806 | 0.400020658895461 | -1.15491249164287 |
| 46 | 275.8 | 275.399535669419 | -1.79541912412954 | 0.40046433058067 | -0.477419207314867 |
| 47 | 279.7 | 279.299755939012 | -0.00922642994470024 | 0.400244060988287 | 0.345325094484995 |
| 48 | 254.6 | 254.199089886348 | -7.87815363636262 | 0.400910113652003 | -1.5213066456228 |
| 49 | 234.6 | 239.59105373833 | -9.97320162490814 | -4.99105373832986 | -0.423578758696938 |
| 50 | 176.9 | 176.883972691118 | -26.1264252815684 | 0.0160273088820607 | -3.00773987518483 |
| 51 | 148.1 | 148.082305938854 | -26.9662706801057 | 0.0176940611455903 | -0.162044253101789 |
| 52 | 122.7 | 122.682975962899 | -26.4746839066591 | 0.0170240371013885 | 0.0949497145288048 |
| 53 | 124.9 | 124.891394112677 | -17.4785492879924 | 0.0086058873233586 | 1.73846415536458 |
| 54 | 121.6 | 121.594250927976 | -13.0311497014309 | 0.00574907202364687 | 0.859642457463539 |
| 55 | 128.4 | 128.396993439590 | -6.81125309463789 | 0.00300656040985147 | 1.20238315363588 |
| 56 | 144.5 | 144.499168183160 | 0.374391004588585 | 0.000831816839605412 | 1.38914646959723 |
| 57 | 151.8 | 151.799619394261 | 2.54642267922465 | 0.000380605739477454 | 0.419912832725945 |
| 58 | 167.1 | 167.100189713847 | 6.54620280755454 | -0.000189713847451409 | 0.773275288419044 |
| 59 | 173.8 | 173.800194434478 | 6.59443650791234 | -0.000194434478038297 | 0.00932504549962803 |
| 60 | 203.7 | 203.700685429368 | 13.9034855252060 | -0.000685429367630973 | 1.41306574068010 |
| 61 | 199.8 | 200.936451384707 | 8.70683387840304 | -1.13645138470706 | -1.04135052103551 |
