Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 1.4816 | 1.4816 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 1.4562 | 1.4575207999565 | -0.00132079994551282 | -0.00132079995650077 | -0.426435187031089 |
3 | 1.4268 | 1.42823266926491 | -0.00143266926490572 | -0.00143266926490572 | -0.826541506682138 |
4 | 1.4088 | 1.41029841263809 | -0.00149841263808581 | -0.00149841263808581 | -0.487681100692778 |
5 | 1.4016 | 1.40312094855557 | -0.00152094855557244 | -0.00152094855557244 | -0.167835020489262 |
6 | 1.365 | 1.36665905505158 | -0.00165905505158485 | -0.00165905505158485 | -1.03261406592776 |
7 | 1.319 | 1.32083294110301 | -0.00183294110301073 | -0.00183294110301073 | -1.30526443616929 |
8 | 1.305 | 1.30688046867487 | -0.00188046867486810 | -0.00188046867486810 | -0.358164477712999 |
9 | 1.2785 | 1.28047626451267 | -0.00197626451266697 | -0.00197626451266697 | -0.724736267722295 |
10 | 1.3239 | 1.32569263558796 | -0.00179263558795749 | -0.00179263558795749 | 1.39464706268916 |
11 | 1.3449 | 1.34660463313754 | -0.00170463313753521 | -0.00170463313753521 | 0.670967231770499 |
12 | 1.2732 | 1.27517384607608 | -0.0019738460760805 | -0.00197384607608049 | -2.06053167576784 |
13 | 1.3322 | 1.29864567021683 | -0.00305039361750168 | 0.0335543297831709 | 0.908524196673319 |
14 | 1.4369 | 1.43653836350162 | 0.000361636342605157 | 0.000361636498382501 | 3.54372588351020 |
15 | 1.4975 | 1.49702903812942 | 0.000470961870582468 | 0.000470961870582458 | 1.77511095853184 |
16 | 1.577 | 1.57638586958426 | 0.000614130415743534 | 0.000614130415743528 | 2.32884052408926 |
17 | 1.5553 | 1.55472622063322 | 0.000573779366778998 | 0.000573779366779008 | -0.657557496272557 |
18 | 1.5557 | 1.55512653431438 | 0.000573465685616275 | 0.000573465685616264 | -0.00512097536522936 |
19 | 1.575 | 1.57439279281162 | 0.000607207188375647 | 0.00060720718837565 | 0.551839259784684 |
20 | 1.5527 | 1.55213399282393 | 0.00056600717606827 | 0.000566007176068271 | -0.67503770671021 |
21 | 1.4748 | 1.47437486536611 | 0.000425134633887282 | 0.000425134633887268 | -2.31226787157924 |
22 | 1.4718 | 1.47138100360013 | 0.000418996399868614 | 0.00041899639986861 | -0.100933408217086 |
23 | 1.457 | 1.45660822899579 | 0.000391771004212843 | 0.000391771004212837 | -0.448480952493273 |
24 | 1.4684 | 1.46798857144430 | 0.000411428555696687 | 0.000411428555696696 | 0.324396484186423 |
25 | 1.4227 | 1.43454155634921 | 0.00107650511441964 | -0.0118415563492138 | -1.10126877603234 |
26 | 1.3896 | 1.38924376466441 | 0.000356235284039582 | 0.000356235335589112 | -1.24331648436759 |
27 | 1.3622 | 1.36187638074137 | 0.000323619258626418 | 0.000323619258626414 | -0.818185982906271 |
28 | 1.3716 | 1.37126572771238 | 0.000334272287623892 | 0.000334272287623883 | 0.267549707947931 |
29 | 1.3419 | 1.34160093787905 | 0.000299062120953077 | 0.000299062120953085 | -0.885338169794054 |
30 | 1.3511 | 1.3507905152352 | 0.000309484764798849 | 0.000309484764798838 | 0.262378438573609 |
31 | 1.3516 | 1.35129029241037 | 0.000309707589634473 | 0.000309707589634475 | 0.00561593900392191 |
32 | 1.3242 | 1.32392266356397 | 0.000277336436034375 | 0.000277336436034372 | -0.816817268774445 |
33 | 1.3074 | 1.30714259044421 | 0.000257409555789821 | 0.000257409555789808 | -0.503400217378331 |
34 | 1.2999 | 1.29965163171405 | 0.000248368285946419 | 0.000248368285946414 | -0.228670573412785 |
35 | 1.3213 | 1.32102700816151 | 0.000272991838486511 | 0.000272991838486504 | 0.623501827896867 |
36 | 1.2881 | 1.28786593024490 | 0.000234069755104313 | 0.000234069755104321 | -0.986708071547363 |
37 | 1.2611 | 1.26668746170399 | 0.000507951055583273 | -0.00558746170399208 | -0.674528374654215 |
38 | 1.2727 | 1.27213556513670 | 0.000564434767028054 | 0.000564434863304471 | 0.136116288107659 |
39 | 1.2811 | 1.28052875761665 | 0.00057124238334515 | 0.000571242383345147 | 0.231008727017761 |
40 | 1.2684 | 1.26784027779238 | 0.000559722207619165 | 0.000559722207619156 | -0.391263915138439 |
41 | 1.265 | 1.26444371207011 | 0.000556287929888535 | 0.000556287929888545 | -0.116740916394658 |
42 | 1.277 | 1.27643379550849 | 0.000566204491513947 | 0.000566204491513933 | 0.337384762474245 |
43 | 1.2271 | 1.22657748919220 | 0.000522510807797504 | 0.000522510807797505 | -1.48785068199346 |
44 | 1.202 | 1.20149965399403 | 0.000500346005972461 | 0.000500346005972458 | -0.755406213968388 |
45 | 1.1938 | 1.19330717373996 | 0.000492826260042849 | 0.000492826260042838 | -0.256504834555903 |
46 | 1.2103 | 1.20979335061923 | 0.000506649380771294 | 0.000506649380771291 | 0.471925942101908 |
47 | 1.1856 | 1.18511509923828 | 0.000484900761719691 | 0.000484900761719684 | -0.743146565720972 |
48 | 1.1786 | 1.17812155173896 | 0.00047844826103745 | 0.000478448261037457 | -0.220671152371540 |
49 | 1.2015 | 1.20410273220399 | 0.000236612009283087 | -0.00260273220398864 | 0.790458499377938 |
50 | 1.2256 | 1.22517489645123 | 0.000425103432418337 | 0.000425103548770822 | 0.582845713590406 |
51 | 1.2292 | 1.22877270849228 | 0.000427291507716962 | 0.000427291507716957 | 0.0936109569276325 |
52 | 1.2037 | 1.20329056475384 | 0.000409435246158402 | 0.000409435246158393 | -0.764459252765785 |
53 | 1.2165 | 1.21608203717994 | 0.000417962820064336 | 0.000417962820064346 | 0.36533257307745 |
54 | 1.2694 | 1.26894594224339 | 0.000454057756609353 | 0.000454057756609327 | 1.54741955714384 |
55 | 1.2938 | 1.29332948455095 | 0.000470515449047248 | 0.000470515449047252 | 0.70604020149205 |
56 | 1.3201 | 1.31961174452017 | 0.000488255479833286 | 0.000488255479833283 | 0.761576161780302 |
57 | 1.3014 | 1.30092491422208 | 0.000475085777923276 | 0.000475085777923262 | -0.565761247670541 |
58 | 1.3119 | 1.31141803842350 | 0.000481961576502212 | 0.000481961576502208 | 0.295582332635997 |
59 | 1.3408 | 1.34029856067249 | 0.000501439327512362 | 0.000501439327512355 | 0.837899644406836 |
60 | 1.2991 | 1.29862746576822 | 0.00047253423177731 | 0.000472534231777324 | -1.24430049621198 |