| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 562 | 562 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 561 | 561.339634174108 | -0.68843476512112 | -0.339634174107586 | -0.102939394850636 |
| 3 | 555 | 556.30167002153 | -3.53750737950236 | -1.30167002153033 | -0.361798347297018 |
| 4 | 544 | 546.172760882981 | -8.09272615414227 | -2.17276088298104 | -0.590130913529773 |
| 5 | 537 | 536.735724180028 | -9.01180035987964 | 0.264275819972285 | -0.111732493912854 |
| 6 | 543 | 539.04938506565 | -1.37767196983302 | 3.9506149343501 | 0.937184990104925 |
| 7 | 594 | 580.494308601945 | 27.5883280943792 | 13.5056913980552 | 3.56271197220082 |
| 8 | 611 | 613.88262978725 | 31.5182883941516 | -2.88262978725027 | 0.482653410588391 |
| 9 | 613 | 621.988478073247 | 15.6535592313344 | -8.98847807324663 | -1.94848619216758 |
| 10 | 611 | 616.115159527653 | 1.06969186910092 | -5.11515952765285 | -1.79122630472807 |
| 11 | 594 | 598.374965528423 | -11.6711826619275 | -4.37496552842256 | -1.56482868994634 |
| 12 | 595 | 591.465311091863 | -8.44608365089035 | 3.53468890813752 | 0.39610552935425 |
| 13 | 591 | 589.01389056506 | -4.39877114673587 | 1.9861094349401 | 0.498878384092907 |
| 14 | 589 | 587.295628129704 | -2.58121187593471 | 1.70437187029575 | 0.226855833739574 |
| 15 | 584 | 582.462954841753 | -4.0626675259225 | 1.53704515824712 | -0.180502321925800 |
| 16 | 573 | 573.14714247557 | -7.48180281364099 | -0.147142475570026 | -0.426441453102353 |
| 17 | 567 | 568.395244040748 | -5.68477039906724 | -1.39524404074807 | 0.221656478094008 |
| 18 | 569 | 576.303965613224 | 3.19725889977592 | -7.30396561322415 | 1.08661119861124 |
| 19 | 621 | 604.109321407278 | 19.2226737235713 | 16.8906785927223 | 1.96869232053014 |
| 20 | 629 | 626.740343320033 | 21.4465947089291 | 2.25965667996701 | 0.273316763573875 |
| 21 | 628 | 635.049302764181 | 12.8657686441724 | -7.049302764181 | -1.05381569760183 |
| 22 | 612 | 619.824942476355 | -5.4820767200239 | -7.82494247635457 | -2.25358414995367 |
| 23 | 595 | 602.87003233706 | -12.9721761514677 | -7.87003233706008 | -0.91996411628555 |
| 24 | 597 | 593.55878515879 | -10.5849499685856 | 3.4412148412095 | 0.293329406862227 |
| 25 | 593 | 589.646999973984 | -6.23248273551301 | 3.35300002601576 | 0.536273166054448 |
| 26 | 590 | 585.735052774875 | -4.71693547254 | 4.26494722512517 | 0.186443412766483 |
| 27 | 580 | 576.128187072909 | -7.88254306910585 | 3.87181292709132 | -0.3876692107905 |
| 28 | 574 | 571.679609754655 | -5.67052766740574 | 2.32039024534491 | 0.272859198586681 |
| 29 | 573 | 576.387572851837 | 1.05036947512808 | -3.38757285183711 | 0.82879433616291 |
| 30 | 573 | 588.021480555575 | 7.8982255336608 | -15.0214805555750 | 0.839675465019677 |
| 31 | 620 | 604.29655454765 | 13.3000682681884 | 15.7034454523500 | 0.66276192593235 |
| 32 | 626 | 619.482336143825 | 14.5163406972291 | 6.51766385617465 | 0.149429548313448 |
| 33 | 620 | 621.40057097307 | 6.38149809770838 | -1.40057097307061 | -0.999203236606412 |
| 34 | 588 | 600.450234103075 | -11.2715551472926 | -12.4502341030745 | -2.16813123617085 |
| 35 | 566 | 577.750520223269 | -18.6492876437219 | -11.7505202232692 | -0.906194760502808 |
| 36 | 557 | 556.446677170891 | -20.362194918674 | 0.553322829109256 | -0.210538900179225 |
| 37 | 561 | 551.744964624392 | -10.2490923931874 | 9.25503537560788 | 1.24420719543982 |
| 38 | 549 | 542.17575217975 | -9.81015129680633 | 6.8242478202497 | 0.0539067498620301 |
| 39 | 532 | 528.98393872936 | -11.9838493807184 | 3.01606127063958 | -0.266600580262813 |
| 40 | 526 | 524.104180887514 | -7.4280373692204 | 1.89581911248584 | 0.560577218702211 |
| 41 | 511 | 518.840730796659 | -6.03627972179115 | -7.84073079665896 | 0.171377174725085 |
| 42 | 499 | 517.654312954973 | -2.91597887486632 | -18.6543129549731 | 0.383108997287234 |
| 43 | 555 | 535.269755427318 | 10.2673767077247 | 19.7302445726816 | 1.61746664236007 |
| 44 | 565 | 553.004620317416 | 15.0590464716619 | 11.9953796825837 | 0.58841122804794 |
| 45 | 542 | 542.38985254972 | -1.42450813442845 | -0.389852549719771 | -2.02469278590887 |
| 46 | 527 | 534.957312465606 | -5.28304715631302 | -7.95731246560575 | -0.473936141250455 |
| 47 | 510 | 523.486083315946 | -9.25659062853895 | -13.4860833159456 | -0.488141262593637 |
| 48 | 514 | 517.587458824783 | -7.1002426387394 | -3.58745882478307 | 0.265035687803791 |
| 49 | 517 | 508.241128634468 | -8.54343223544694 | 8.75887136553227 | -0.177396633467984 |
| 50 | 508 | 499.142652389282 | -8.89984016343441 | 8.8573476107175 | -0.0437556608483276 |
| 51 | 493 | 490.833980783745 | -8.52123700864092 | 2.16601921625509 | 0.0464625792082002 |
| 52 | 490 | 486.328502361258 | -5.95267678554692 | 3.6714976387422 | 0.315796315503607 |
| 53 | 469 | 480.072604406743 | -6.14691457445949 | -11.0726044067432 | -0.0238976370997597 |
| 54 | 478 | 497.702801835814 | 9.09701864089559 | -19.7028018358138 | 1.87259509707129 |
| 55 | 528 | 511.038927314717 | 11.81185210855 | 16.9610726852829 | 0.333178849774093 |
| 56 | 534 | 515.505144116937 | 7.11189170466540 | 18.4948558830632 | -0.577010952359098 |
| 57 | 518 | 517.411063808219 | 3.78091839241226 | 0.588936191781156 | -0.409113871218731 |
| 58 | 506 | 514.369684157575 | -0.585149174345899 | -8.36968415757522 | -0.536337412367532 |
| 59 | 502 | 515.800597561215 | 0.70519518619107 | -13.8005975612148 | 0.158541580600858 |
| 60 | 516 | 518.231884386885 | 1.8102892578221 | -2.23188438688496 | 0.135812597659675 |
| 61 | 528 | 518.868839313513 | 1.05882769470306 | 9.1311606864867 | -0.0923275176192655 |
