| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.80328262753222 | -0.0969886639697468 | -0.00328262753222099 | -0.509711947518154 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.69829043125068 | -0.104329203380002 | 0.00170956874931856 | -0.0394162709541056 |
| 4 | 6.6 | 6.5993875934293 | -0.0993842064077105 | 0.000612406570693932 | 0.0254867873150688 |
| 5 | 6.5 | 6.49999355515997 | -0.099393156928099 | 6.44484002837696e-06 | -4.63088397172742e-05 |
| 6 | 6.5 | 6.49370658592923 | -0.0145725460057636 | 0.0062934140707674 | 0.438691895348336 |
| 7 | 7 | 6.96895320619657 | 0.431660149598124 | 0.0310467938034320 | 2.30793333437155 |
| 8 | 7.5 | 7.50177360453403 | 0.523814358362331 | -0.00177360453402983 | 0.476624092478405 |
| 9 | 7.6 | 7.6280747491598 | 0.161691513837031 | -0.0280747491598062 | -1.87290940411838 |
| 10 | 7.6 | 7.60514469539128 | -0.0064940422634259 | -0.00514469539127838 | -0.869860352300492 |
| 11 | 7.6 | 7.5967477558493 | -0.00822753400398534 | 0.00325224415069477 | -0.00896566727311983 |
| 12 | 7.8 | 7.7866676124991 | 0.172279708423442 | 0.0133323875009000 | 0.933588455025079 |
| 13 | 8 | 8.00090650382734 | 0.210480043855132 | -0.000906503827344194 | 0.197743435919268 |
| 14 | 8 | 8.019652832764 | 0.0356723850107597 | -0.0196528327640074 | -0.91144565206235 |
| 15 | 8 | 8.0012263749624 | -0.0117173829797968 | -0.00122637496240239 | -0.248091490334567 |
| 16 | 7.9 | 7.90108577147389 | -0.0896642295311937 | -0.00108577147389100 | -0.402851105092088 |
| 17 | 7.9 | 7.8769881330424 | -0.0320960948949893 | 0.0230118669576009 | 0.297702170523861 |
| 18 | 8 | 8.01795820690543 | 0.119982326826235 | -0.0179582069054283 | 0.786630271350879 |
| 19 | 8.5 | 8.46939008900326 | 0.411286067862125 | 0.0306099109967422 | 1.50661957091250 |
| 20 | 9.2 | 9.15717823224795 | 0.6542878423783 | 0.0428217677520502 | 1.256814819453 |
| 21 | 9.4 | 9.44970688943783 | 0.336369897600665 | -0.0497068894378309 | -1.64428019212116 |
| 22 | 9.5 | 9.51455958870649 | 0.0977553000122758 | -0.0145595887064889 | -1.23412152759003 |
| 23 | 9.5 | 9.5153659026631 | 0.0125522284630493 | -0.0153659026631039 | -0.440674305996989 |
| 24 | 9.6 | 9.5901334595714 | 0.06722267543714 | 0.00986654042859326 | 0.282759195649806 |
| 25 | 9.7 | 9.68495775481885 | 0.0914660069197278 | 0.0150422451811474 | 0.125529470737772 |
| 26 | 9.7 | 9.7243088829891 | 0.0456356250559896 | -0.0243088829890895 | -0.237480793910056 |
| 27 | 9.6 | 9.6036163601931 | -0.098330893481197 | -0.00361636019310489 | -0.747449805892849 |
| 28 | 9.5 | 9.49622645955113 | -0.106210034756985 | 0.00377354044886688 | -0.0407910332130456 |
| 29 | 9.4 | 9.375754105753 | -0.118578882409638 | 0.0242458942470022 | -0.0639314144975397 |
| 30 | 9.3 | 9.33925212679597 | -0.0473841955243409 | -0.0392521267959714 | 0.368278968443665 |
| 31 | 9.6 | 9.5962310448116 | 0.216711062451666 | 0.00376895518839076 | 1.36589684383012 |
| 32 | 10.2 | 10.1048865181986 | 0.470031680729156 | 0.0951134818013845 | 1.31018173423500 |
| 33 | 10.2 | 10.2553839111735 | 0.192781260094045 | -0.055383911173492 | -1.43394721740802 |
| 34 | 10.1 | 10.1275402374555 | -0.0854180278091928 | -0.0275402374555190 | -1.43885655649390 |
| 35 | 9.9 | 9.9277051347366 | -0.184695382897907 | -0.0277051347366020 | -0.513468466170338 |
| 36 | 9.8 | 9.78992035409442 | -0.144002303329384 | 0.0100796459055824 | 0.210475605308685 |
| 37 | 9.8 | 9.77323743991112 | -0.0335658220416446 | 0.0267625600888773 | 0.571840334891286 |
| 38 | 9.7 | 9.70885485557073 | -0.0602999033787911 | -0.00885485557073494 | -0.138288519984853 |
| 39 | 9.5 | 9.51686986916906 | -0.173695783524916 | -0.0168698691690636 | -0.58736507553376 |
| 40 | 9.3 | 9.28899985283534 | -0.220482250981146 | 0.0110001471646583 | -0.242285065169331 |
| 41 | 9.1 | 9.06383426532019 | -0.224520885229 | 0.0361657346798152 | -0.0208738621896985 |
| 42 | 9 | 9.04998240122864 | -0.0429133763494174 | -0.0499824012286451 | 0.93936556865467 |
| 43 | 9.5 | 9.51008803957474 | 0.390878797022265 | -0.0100880395747372 | 2.24362561584474 |
| 44 | 10 | 9.8858642333578 | 0.377853890064433 | 0.114135766642198 | -0.0673647141340615 |
| 45 | 10.2 | 10.2243875624102 | 0.343934630053573 | -0.024387562410209 | -0.175431631921640 |
| 46 | 10.1 | 10.1479051464939 | -0.0186387523920995 | -0.0479051464938622 | -1.8752521923236 |
| 47 | 10 | 10.0343291332554 | -0.100509565559901 | -0.0343291332554264 | -0.423437168161351 |
| 48 | 9.9 | 9.91007998530503 | -0.120975928279361 | -0.0100799853050278 | -0.105865898435004 |
| 49 | 10 | 9.95924803430843 | 0.0257379535851044 | 0.0407519656915716 | 0.759511732078006 |
| 50 | 9.9 | 9.90330417272597 | -0.0446631638652049 | -0.00330417272597006 | -0.364020394808719 |
| 51 | 9.7 | 9.7189094534988 | -0.164607246447938 | -0.0189094534987968 | -0.620807663720052 |
| 52 | 9.5 | 9.47496654057144 | -0.232830863872032 | 0.0250334594285605 | -0.353245767009989 |
| 53 | 9.2 | 9.17429196336259 | -0.291136036561832 | 0.0257080366374136 | -0.301395533884428 |
| 54 | 9 | 9.09903757978164 | -0.105715589841315 | -0.0990375797816373 | 0.958993878824425 |
| 55 | 9.3 | 9.29161056374493 | 0.150567282437484 | 0.00838943625507061 | 1.32556122734086 |
| 56 | 9.8 | 9.68111685887387 | 0.355881338043137 | 0.118883141126127 | 1.061879047375 |
| 57 | 9.8 | 9.79552025448501 | 0.148385020794035 | 0.00447974551498878 | -1.07318024911491 |
| 58 | 9.6 | 9.6591873680871 | -0.0962628817004825 | -0.0591873680870934 | -1.26534050706559 |
| 59 | 9.4 | 9.4362634959221 | -0.205086316971399 | -0.0362634959220974 | -0.562833139286858 |
| 60 | 9.3 | 9.3292267864702 | -0.120865890964073 | -0.0292267864702048 | 0.435674640113666 |
| 61 | 9.2 | 9.15987381741916 | -0.162526647446609 | 0.0401261825808406 | -0.215617093302957 |
| 62 | 9.2 | 9.17315763955464 | -0.0115699046998726 | 0.0268423604453565 | 0.780495449104329 |
| 63 | 9 | 9.01933752253603 | -0.133400868188506 | -0.0193375225360328 | -0.63038066979372 |
| 64 | 8.8 | 8.75936736075232 | -0.241930716368611 | 0.0406326392476787 | -0.561825045022934 |
| 65 | 8.7 | 8.67178743516707 | -0.109600065694556 | 0.0282125648329320 | 0.684162012003635 |
| 66 | 8.7 | 8.81343441744137 | 0.105665231762804 | -0.113434417441371 | 1.11326607606669 |
| 67 | 9.1 | 9.12380519812145 | 0.281094083468202 | -0.0238051981214453 | 0.907373471856493 |
| 68 | 9.7 | 9.54995765887827 | 0.405425210195667 | 0.150042341121726 | 0.643038802218294 |
| 69 | 9.8 | 9.77699518115466 | 0.252524443758275 | 0.0230048188453459 | -0.790810333329948 |
| 70 | 9.6 | 9.67141308903975 | -0.0544100856828502 | -0.071413089039746 | -1.58749402100156 |
| 71 | 9.4 | 9.4629590605726 | -0.186422472532329 | -0.0629590605725986 | -0.682767777222532 |
| 72 | 9.4 | 9.40684008553977 | -0.0747752818288613 | -0.00684008553976568 | 0.577574994265567 |
| 73 | 9.5 | 9.47891995811771 | 0.0510911013962462 | 0.0210800418822849 | 0.651299465619691 |
| 74 | 9.4 | 9.36769439497004 | -0.0879282740069448 | 0.0323056050299552 | -0.718789272278589 |
| 75 | 9.3 | 9.28735109929848 | -0.0814431863225421 | 0.0126489007015181 | 0.0335503876852401 |
| 76 | 9.2 | 9.16832337824294 | -0.113604482609247 | 0.0316766217570563 | -0.166459039326326 |
| 77 | 9 | 8.99982997074862 | -0.16057639318422 | 0.000170029251380322 | -0.242880112095490 |
| 78 | 8.9 | 9.0250766827047 | -0.00165055774615969 | -0.125076682704700 | 0.821863818461227 |
| 79 | 9.2 | 9.24162800933478 | 0.184991027235747 | -0.041628009334785 | 0.965365148234763 |
| 80 | 9.8 | 9.62437322954055 | 0.354171403767478 | 0.175626770459446 | 0.875002822894066 |
| 81 | 9.9 | 9.84104813183949 | 0.236538259823699 | 0.0589518681605105 | -0.608404249325954 |
| 82 | 9.6 | 9.67829896920759 | -0.105054269715233 | -0.0782989692075892 | -1.7667441103516 |
| 83 | 9.2 | 9.30505236442219 | -0.334457226779272 | -0.105052364422189 | -1.18648212688483 |
| 84 | 9.1 | 9.12162462476358 | -0.205285935188185 | -0.0216246247635796 | 0.668236778265544 |
| 85 | 9.1 | 9.04446101677087 | -0.0956785396937964 | 0.0555389832291262 | 0.567085979358425 |
| 86 | 9 | 8.96775485055741 | -0.0794587842357685 | 0.0322451494425879 | 0.0838661876366756 |
| 87 | 8.9 | 8.878547327021 | -0.0877827058291824 | 0.0214526729789957 | -0.0430600588812928 |
| 88 | 8.7 | 8.65769203759342 | -0.201476375333422 | 0.0423079624065759 | -0.588367969521904 |
| 89 | 8.5 | 8.5083393168658 | -0.156935605805233 | -0.00833931686580338 | 0.230330471554328 |
| 90 | 8.3 | 8.44558284989099 | -0.0764988489144051 | -0.145582849890985 | 0.415959699843689 |
| 91 | 8.5 | 8.56882980183363 | 0.0941082770596501 | -0.0688298018336336 | 0.882418089752944 |
| 92 | 8.7 | 8.5373969419345 | -0.0131377250266477 | 0.162603058065503 | -0.55468030439221 |
| 93 | 8.4 | 8.30924189557444 | -0.196828705085321 | 0.0907581044255647 | -0.95005745208409 |
| 94 | 8.1 | 8.12990277041526 | -0.181887839852855 | -0.029902770415264 | 0.0772750660123883 |
| 95 | 7.8 | 7.92420449541311 | -0.202225214484494 | -0.124204495413109 | -0.105186984895535 |
| 96 | 7.7 | 7.73856120292938 | -0.188062744384205 | -0.0385612029293838 | 0.0732654979027834 |
| 97 | 7.5 | 7.45842603098862 | -0.266716991566782 | 0.0415739690113771 | -0.406899467490165 |
| 98 | 7.2 | 7.17088288753995 | -0.284497143767788 | 0.0291171124600502 | -0.091937885817044 |
| 99 | 6.8 | 6.76393781393972 | -0.388937338110898 | 0.0360621860602798 | -0.540247475588933 |
| 100 | 6.7 | 6.63387691676439 | -0.168027769691396 | 0.0661230832356147 | 1.14309004181351 |
| 101 | 6.4 | 6.42189044812013 | -0.205547648939400 | -0.0218904481201324 | -0.194036293289821 |
| 102 | 6.3 | 6.46172130841553 | 0.00380010847361459 | -0.161721308415531 | 1.08258883550400 |
| 103 | 6.8 | 6.82618494772498 | 0.311500221860795 | -0.026184947724981 | 1.59146598631578 |
| 104 | 7.3 | 7.10760546345154 | 0.285833516409557 | 0.192394536548457 | -0.132749616357085 |
| 105 | 7.1 | 7.04409653891183 | -0.0122731229254691 | 0.0559034610881703 | -1.54181798932843 |
| 106 | 7 | 7.03113367628378 | -0.0128616768686343 | -0.0311336762837759 | -0.00304402662815616 |
| 107 | 6.8 | 6.94130487700724 | -0.0785281800365025 | -0.141304877007237 | -0.339637650552407 |
| 108 | 6.6 | 6.64771905993194 | -0.262008269803026 | -0.047719059931941 | -0.949164592939156 |
| 109 | 6.3 | 6.26549144138742 | -0.364591333665558 | 0.0345085586125796 | -0.530651211812909 |
| 110 | 6.1 | 6.03090765095222 | -0.253716814310413 | 0.0690923490477754 | 0.573330808157301 |
| 111 | 6.1 | 6.06794384934177 | -0.00593601140390337 | 0.0320561506582342 | 1.28167644289275 |
| 112 | 6.3 | 6.19499946848746 | 0.107442356763316 | 0.105000531512536 | 0.586624464106176 |
| 113 | 6.3 | 6.34110768134133 | 0.140413507842667 | -0.0411076813413264 | 0.170519819732244 |
| 114 | 6 | 6.24436716080664 | -0.0617427683283162 | -0.244367160806639 | -1.04540645502945 |
| 115 | 6.2 | 6.23231729991367 | -0.0193855911985331 | -0.0323172999136703 | 0.219073225278536 |
| 116 | 6.4 | 6.1659833796564 | -0.0594091639625735 | 0.234016620343605 | -0.207004444169889 |
| 117 | 6.8 | 6.70115005802514 | 0.447499282765628 | 0.0988499419748579 | 2.62174553289296 |
| 118 | 7.5 | 7.49816924829108 | 0.745471004805264 | 0.00183075170891743 | 1.54111971267231 |
| 119 | 7.5 | 7.65818755751732 | 0.246423806684914 | -0.158187557517319 | -2.58117637378173 |
| 120 | 7.6 | 7.6416818058367 | 0.0222948616614153 | -0.041681805836708 | -1.15942049689715 |
| 121 | 7.6 | 7.58314137466263 | -0.0466192985585717 | 0.0168586253373661 | -0.356467015572466 |
| 122 | 7.4 | 7.38635982469393 | -0.174574099696437 | 0.0136401753060682 | -0.661671356560649 |
| 123 | 7.3 | 7.28632549987441 | -0.111095323776076 | 0.0136745001255873 | 0.328344120716931 |
| 124 | 7.1 | 7.02078397309569 | -0.242662895841471 | 0.0792160269043137 | -0.680692549383508 |
| 125 | 6.9 | 6.88845744398707 | -0.1486494153989 | 0.0115425560129334 | 0.486232681951028 |
| 126 | 6.8 | 7.01089710066548 | 0.0822717504469815 | -0.210897100665476 | 1.19417117207913 |
| 127 | 7.5 | 7.4636192251257 | 0.397805830203249 | 0.0363807748743065 | 1.63193227808852 |
| 128 | 7.6 | 7.48708251880199 | 0.0789174881331633 | 0.112917481198013 | -1.64931022624031 |
| 129 | 7.8 | 7.76400371031722 | 0.247600111061917 | 0.0359962896827827 | 0.872431074809008 |
| 130 | 8 | 7.93401647703858 | 0.181504898938954 | 0.0659835229614232 | -0.341846561046691 |
| 131 | 8.1 | 8.21808636999205 | 0.268869394844783 | -0.118086369992047 | 0.451870795383239 |
| 132 | 8.2 | 8.25630689009658 | 0.0723955719793231 | -0.0563068900965844 | -1.01633743229518 |
| 133 | 8.3 | 8.26710336373467 | 0.0199194739961053 | 0.0328966362653282 | -0.271428837130206 |
| 134 | 8.2 | 8.20619917924705 | -0.0489041845089202 | -0.00619917924705061 | -0.355904627572743 |
| 135 | 8 | 7.9673496719076 | -0.210570658536544 | 0.0326503280924093 | -0.83620614239248 |
| 136 | 7.9 | 7.81550643505175 | -0.160574098039964 | 0.0844935649482516 | 0.25865477197089 |
| 137 | 7.6 | 7.62494809065441 | -0.186106292079098 | -0.0249480906544115 | -0.132053932471457 |
| 138 | 7.6 | 7.83851409061825 | 0.154148437783004 | -0.238514090618247 | 1.75959545503132 |
| 139 | 8.3 | 8.18329305671243 | 0.316422947099063 | 0.116706943287566 | 0.839268665887032 |
| 140 | 8.4 | 8.3303225199136 | 0.172212333243359 | 0.0696774800863902 | -0.745865013587108 |
| 141 | 8.4 | 8.36658947996142 | 0.0564700830622168 | 0.0334105200385841 | -0.598622047596288 |
| 142 | 8.4 | 8.36756169519514 | 0.00922159927542547 | 0.0324383048048586 | -0.24437099571462 |
| 143 | 8.4 | 8.4829206979083 | 0.0995754428678285 | -0.0829206979082976 | 0.46733501010513 |
| 144 | 8.6 | 8.64952081825745 | 0.156635984379270 | -0.0495208182574524 | 0.295161569668832 |
| 145 | 8.9 | 8.8550416835422 | 0.198255533295663 | 0.0449583164578036 | 0.215268140398107 |
| 146 | 8.8 | 8.79455129543897 | -0.0219504528495293 | 0.00544870456102707 | -1.13876301326199 |
| 147 | 8.3 | 8.30684621843196 | -0.418174461598244 | -0.00684621843196125 | -2.04940928952984 |
| 148 | 7.5 | 7.43562537414715 | -0.803667293423078 | 0.064374625852848 | -1.99424941090497 |
| 149 | 7.2 | 7.23367250031932 | -0.291567723293461 | -0.0336725003193204 | 2.64864654949372 |
| 150 | 7.4 | 7.61724917187873 | 0.282926912443713 | -0.217249171878729 | 2.97098631118528 |
| 151 | 8.8 | 8.59562888004973 | 0.874639860376063 | 0.204371119950268 | 3.06025690636239 |
| 152 | 9.3 | 9.22272871022969 | 0.664009440538916 | 0.0772712897703133 | -1.08938906372129 |
| 153 | 9.3 | 9.3014826856467 | 0.165990107548502 | -0.00148268564670678 | -2.57577065724356 |
| 154 | 8.7 | 8.75172540723344 | -0.443051667665823 | -0.0517254072334449 | -3.14999570963287 |
| 155 | 8.2 | 8.31202402714954 | -0.440201009299776 | -0.112024027149539 | 0.0147444479707999 |
| 156 | 8.3 | 8.34533732315206 | -0.037277896522023 | -0.0453373231520548 | 2.08419158941487 |
| 157 | 8.5 | 8.42542992485681 | 0.0625978339589858 | 0.0745700751431851 | 0.516575044885542 |
| 158 | 8.6 | 8.51072442477806 | 0.0819047894234868 | 0.089275575221937 | 0.0998446753512053 |
| 159 | 8.5 | 8.40712896477445 | -0.075838881005781 | 0.0928710352255452 | -0.81589762663555 |
| 160 | 8.2 | 8.19776959707738 | -0.189400487637189 | 0.00223040292261712 | -0.587463609323146 |
| 161 | 8.1 | 8.20641615268126 | -0.0209251164086593 | -0.106416152681260 | 0.87138580502876 |
| 162 | 7.9 | 8.246216775861 | 0.0307263235683887 | -0.346216775861006 | 0.267117847447907 |
| 163 | 8.6 | 8.38624394510366 | 0.123684101681642 | 0.213756054896337 | 0.480761592789531 |
| 164 | 8.7 | 8.55251351507315 | 0.159903901500448 | 0.147486484926852 | 0.187329704662209 |
| 165 | 8.7 | 8.59197337143758 | 0.0574585603138465 | 0.108026628562416 | -0.529850740326104 |
| 166 | 8.5 | 8.54254372134772 | -0.0334544450033096 | -0.0425437213477217 | -0.470208367102745 |
| 167 | 8.4 | 8.57563491783914 | 0.0231433876194469 | -0.175634917839144 | 0.292741452214441 |
| 168 | 8.5 | 8.57079589436107 | -0.000657470514224233 | -0.070795894361068 | -0.123112050628458 |
| 169 | 8.7 | 8.63139920614258 | 0.051449312978389 | 0.0686007938574205 | 0.269501411667283 |
| 170 | 8.7 | 8.58970336546168 | -0.0277530394433772 | 0.110296634538320 | -0.409595219748855 |
| 171 | 8.6 | 8.48386240134391 | -0.094133333700624 | 0.116137598656090 | -0.343336240028194 |
| 172 | 8.5 | 8.51217054785028 | 0.0099662752906528 | -0.0121705478502835 | 0.538502206376155 |
| 173 | 8.3 | 8.42060822470177 | -0.0763688421768939 | -0.120608224701771 | -0.446544409913996 |
| 174 | 8 | 8.36260164870455 | -0.0607560728644558 | -0.362601648704554 | 0.0807431699386892 |
| 175 | 8.2 | 8.02322400769827 | -0.297631951661528 | 0.176775992301724 | -1.22507587926374 |
| 176 | 8.1 | 7.92035361716105 | -0.132046268478125 | 0.179646382838948 | 0.85641049973162 |
| 177 | 8.1 | 7.95971407857913 | 0.0136895472067912 | 0.140285921420874 | 0.75375126952647 |
| 178 | 8 | 8.04485972873899 | 0.0744428469981793 | -0.0448597287389862 | 0.314221482602536 |
| 179 | 7.9 | 8.07394860800472 | 0.0358828526202 | -0.173948608004718 | -0.199444478842825 |
| 180 | 7.9 | 7.99390446679613 | -0.0626846393845265 | -0.093904466796133 | -0.509841397713867 |
