| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 10 | 10.0068639334534 | -0.893703333928057 | -0.00686393345337242 | -2.23724651119606 |
| 3 | 9.2 | 9.19347489643745 | -0.815149386259882 | 0.00652510356254973 | 0.198063228633983 |
| 4 | 9.2 | 9.18528063755083 | -0.0305780508770456 | 0.0147193624491687 | 1.95600560631568 |
| 5 | 9.5 | 9.4974539427771 | 0.302822347802786 | 0.00254605722289303 | 0.831574902032834 |
| 6 | 9.6 | 9.60533841921756 | 0.113190193086188 | -0.0053384192175581 | -0.472975904468953 |
| 7 | 9.5 | 9.50315508458129 | -0.0963187489799362 | -0.00315508458128987 | -0.52255205140714 |
| 8 | 9.1 | 9.10468616282954 | -0.390241135587732 | -0.00468616282954316 | -0.733093985570277 |
| 9 | 8.9 | 8.89520750271395 | -0.214400853442883 | 0.00479249728605393 | 0.438576505473098 |
| 10 | 9 | 8.99500825200278 | 0.0912449884553963 | 0.00499174799722324 | 0.762334338967635 |
| 11 | 10.1 | 10.0828368205142 | 1.06069141454830 | 0.0171631794858209 | 2.41796942438089 |
| 12 | 10.3 | 10.3202537158300 | 0.259834810733633 | -0.0202537158299776 | -1.99747683752032 |
| 13 | 10.2 | 10.2031878890508 | -0.106739136546773 | -0.00318788905084199 | -0.914533314160683 |
| 14 | 9.6 | 9.60644603896359 | -0.58354598789031 | -0.00644603896358816 | -1.19263321334968 |
| 15 | 9.2 | 9.19912884314424 | -0.415052930969298 | 0.000871156855764229 | 0.423495729103994 |
| 16 | 9.3 | 9.28223063354465 | 0.0601829151007586 | 0.0177693664553478 | 1.18443429535372 |
| 17 | 9.4 | 9.3968436088779 | 0.112109689034025 | 0.00315639112210081 | 0.129523187198850 |
| 18 | 9.4 | 9.40892766814308 | 0.0166713248807178 | -0.00892766814307458 | -0.238039610665634 |
| 19 | 9.2 | 9.19996595311868 | -0.198611874298626 | 3.40468813197327e-05 | -0.536954217243037 |
| 20 | 9 | 9.00465525663785 | -0.19546214671726 | -0.00465525663784857 | 0.0078559729471201 |
| 21 | 9 | 8.97897837142493 | -0.0334660915862043 | 0.0210216285750721 | 0.404046575722709 |
| 22 | 9 | 9.03277326414179 | 0.0497916645295179 | -0.0327732641417894 | 0.207659447582270 |
| 23 | 9.8 | 9.74505710696874 | 0.681893667949621 | 0.0549428930312625 | 1.57657342739812 |
| 24 | 10 | 10.0361275648203 | 0.309002379720886 | -0.036127564820333 | -0.930057138880089 |
| 25 | 9.8 | 9.80310866158167 | -0.208058298903148 | -0.00310866158166938 | -1.29002097004471 |
| 26 | 9.3 | 9.30744631952414 | -0.482573049766388 | -0.00744631952414323 | -0.685783395991991 |
| 27 | 9 | 9.00952632854252 | -0.308339324125258 | -0.00952632854251582 | 0.436606585672933 |
| 28 | 9 | 8.97692222521665 | -0.0481474004522187 | 0.0230777747833497 | 0.648553124215936 |
| 29 | 9.1 | 9.09411345523197 | 0.107797804239079 | 0.00588654476802396 | 0.388980472756534 |
| 30 | 9.1 | 9.10420534138444 | 0.0156252119531483 | -0.00420534138444017 | -0.229894430129386 |
| 31 | 9.1 | 9.09777943334338 | -0.00517721265081393 | 0.00222056665661839 | -0.0518849250734059 |
| 32 | 9.2 | 9.2057817411714 | 0.101591825367637 | -0.00578174117140129 | 0.266300705894962 |
| 33 | 8.8 | 8.78437779453467 | -0.391780569661796 | 0.0156222054653325 | -1.23055731007511 |
| 34 | 8.3 | 8.3691357868653 | -0.413913168086644 | -0.0691357868652932 | -0.055202582996755 |
| 35 | 8.4 | 8.32552987174606 | -0.0645770749692726 | 0.0744701282539431 | 0.871306220113875 |
| 36 | 8.1 | 8.12699836736927 | -0.190941601484591 | -0.0269983673692684 | -0.315175885342798 |
| 37 | 7.7 | 7.69528993229173 | -0.418029543124488 | 0.00471006770826683 | -0.566605392522188 |
| 38 | 7.9 | 7.88367390347685 | 0.154181344301170 | 0.0163260965231540 | 1.42817202858971 |
| 39 | 7.9 | 7.92842781609729 | 0.0516615994181745 | -0.0284278160972864 | -0.256407404154038 |
| 40 | 8 | 7.99009562465349 | 0.0610446944162993 | 0.0099043753465103 | 0.0233944117440882 |
| 41 | 7.9 | 7.89369007918744 | -0.086495312848872 | 0.00630992081255707 | -0.367995665153523 |
| 42 | 7.6 | 7.60737337609937 | -0.273778118114413 | -0.00737337609937432 | -0.467119686453087 |
| 43 | 7.1 | 7.12790678002376 | -0.466564350772447 | -0.0279067800237604 | -0.48084252403469 |
| 44 | 6.8 | 6.76997639806375 | -0.364746080362358 | 0.0300236019362534 | 0.253952669001719 |
| 45 | 6.5 | 6.46898313845856 | -0.304993456902879 | 0.0310168615414385 | 0.149033529440635 |
| 46 | 6.9 | 6.96394333579106 | 0.444770777441391 | -0.0639433357910556 | 1.87004355104455 |
| 47 | 8.2 | 8.10008672231675 | 1.09277150061705 | 0.099913277683245 | 1.61623101977772 |
| 48 | 8.7 | 8.72029945974326 | 0.64988173331435 | -0.0202994597432559 | -1.10464896675928 |
| 49 | 8.3 | 8.37337275074385 | -0.284241898090932 | -0.0733727507438535 | -2.33081906302693 |
| 50 | 7.9 | 7.88034989676338 | -0.47993104805200 | 0.0196501032366244 | -0.488182428801203 |
| 51 | 7.5 | 7.52415620682437 | -0.364474447190549 | -0.0241562068243744 | 0.288448810613073 |
| 52 | 7.8 | 7.76058610936087 | 0.196821074517806 | 0.0394138906391312 | 1.39976634310803 |
| 53 | 8.3 | 8.2767546725712 | 0.49489669315893 | 0.0232453274287947 | 0.743416939198634 |
| 54 | 8.4 | 8.41275003790577 | 0.159842837590559 | -0.0127500379057717 | -0.83569808624464 |
| 55 | 8.2 | 8.24662740361231 | -0.144476337426449 | -0.046627403612313 | -0.759024029954874 |
| 56 | 7.7 | 7.66111285180186 | -0.556222340327809 | 0.038887148198135 | -1.02696712124741 |
| 57 | 7.2 | 7.18912411420272 | -0.477583864004037 | 0.0108758857972788 | 0.196138158351528 |
| 58 | 7.3 | 7.3937947066225 | 0.159356857009129 | -0.0937947066224972 | 1.58864218902277 |
| 59 | 8.1 | 7.98624212916261 | 0.563684298589606 | 0.113757870837385 | 1.00846642172225 |
| 60 | 8.5 | 8.47298749587025 | 0.491860584857809 | 0.0270125041297530 | -0.179142885955574 |
