| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.90727003089972 | -0.193330798072277 | -0.00727003089972077 | -0.704226735768314 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.78850306280179 | -0.125492050946939 | 0.0114969371982098 | 0.252756347173876 |
| 4 | 7.5 | 7.44591083795652 | 0.583043511915296 | 0.0540891620434831 | 2.52588990561095 |
| 5 | 7.6 | 7.6428322681507 | 0.234136871314490 | -0.0428322681506953 | -1.24908457651851 |
| 6 | 7.8 | 7.79831776638186 | 0.163006920426251 | 0.00168223361814192 | -0.254542711717144 |
| 7 | 8 | 7.99604011720555 | 0.194403161063487 | 0.0039598827944467 | 0.112354031319325 |
| 8 | 8.1 | 8.10674705227073 | 0.118713362298507 | -0.00674705227072498 | -0.270861433124373 |
| 9 | 8.2 | 8.20026103489564 | 0.0959246813346164 | -0.00026103489563794 | -0.0815509497598487 |
| 10 | 8.3 | 8.2993394342541 | 0.0987767140041689 | 0.00066056574590474 | 0.0102062058851642 |
| 11 | 8.2 | 8.21342016981819 | -0.0682513346322619 | -0.0134201698181885 | -0.597721993050808 |
| 12 | 8 | 8.00650145456995 | -0.193653803787009 | -0.0065014545699481 | -0.44876183614508 |
| 13 | 7.9 | 7.89147459508063 | -0.122595520072838 | 0.0085254049193685 | 0.254523475645755 |
| 14 | 7.6 | 7.59217121082318 | -0.282536962946179 | 0.0078287891768185 | -0.577275216605326 |
| 15 | 7.6 | 7.64182416917516 | 0.00596598444299717 | -0.041824169175161 | 1.04483237081638 |
| 16 | 8.3 | 8.16655525806636 | 0.459782393795423 | 0.133444741933641 | 1.62336816872578 |
| 17 | 8.4 | 8.45965219770558 | 0.314615543694299 | -0.0596521977055777 | -0.519354045982309 |
| 18 | 8.4 | 8.43612740944127 | 0.0198809399027283 | -0.0361274094412692 | -1.05486589780462 |
| 19 | 8.4 | 8.38716986626877 | -0.0401338706277877 | 0.0128301337312255 | -0.214765078397047 |
| 20 | 8.4 | 8.39576081350222 | 0.00234381489326167 | 0.00423918649778433 | 0.152009931540260 |
| 21 | 8.6 | 8.59081817877229 | 0.170341920771762 | 0.00918182122771118 | 0.601193315489384 |
| 22 | 8.9 | 8.87851676311519 | 0.272648613683221 | 0.0214832368848141 | 0.366112006440112 |
| 23 | 8.8 | 8.831832584746 | -0.00574093890677252 | -0.0318325847460061 | -0.99624165140994 |
| 24 | 8.3 | 8.36200481191443 | -0.410263807497274 | -0.0620048119144279 | -1.44762769201956 |
| 25 | 7.5 | 7.4932303197456 | -0.809740169950117 | 0.00676968025439419 | -1.43130618328905 |
| 26 | 7.2 | 7.15511012989834 | -0.398327005872472 | 0.0448898701016636 | 1.47498680004554 |
| 27 | 7.4 | 7.45583114313896 | 0.201888958538703 | -0.0558311431389586 | 2.15555527228033 |
| 28 | 8.8 | 8.58039119628602 | 0.998089410556252 | 0.219608803713978 | 2.85296047944670 |
| 29 | 9.3 | 9.35577571761805 | 0.806473459701432 | -0.0557757176180474 | -0.685193450912207 |
| 30 | 9.3 | 9.39936618674591 | 0.150037179689955 | -0.099366186745913 | -2.34951319211936 |
| 31 | 8.7 | 8.74806931594868 | -0.539751201203634 | -0.0480693159486781 | -2.46844625115379 |
| 32 | 8.2 | 8.19999718750983 | -0.546913970464848 | 2.81249016968841e-06 | -0.025632464797672 |
| 33 | 8.3 | 8.25928087668654 | -0.0251096822778961 | 0.0407191233134559 | 1.86731544749477 |
| 34 | 8.5 | 8.4541253571834 | 0.164224349065813 | 0.0458746428165990 | 0.677547023955088 |
| 35 | 8.6 | 8.60161411509725 | 0.149818621850856 | -0.00161411509725253 | -0.051552241481579 |
| 36 | 8.5 | 8.50057399688722 | -0.0660559400168866 | -0.00057399688721909 | -0.772568313369397 |
| 37 | 8.2 | 8.2246425368067 | -0.246655836751749 | -0.0246425368067008 | -0.647074252099913 |
| 38 | 8.1 | 8.09442967950603 | -0.146446877730986 | 0.00557032049397373 | 0.358638820560745 |
| 39 | 7.9 | 8.09142844421346 | -0.0238997809579522 | -0.191428444213459 | 0.439135973489429 |
| 40 | 8.6 | 8.37454691802018 | 0.23914639186227 | 0.225453081979815 | 0.942689687612276 |
| 41 | 8.7 | 8.68584769092942 | 0.300882146710618 | 0.0141523090705795 | 0.220765088877582 |
| 42 | 8.7 | 8.70569724624342 | 0.0605463043947875 | -0.00569724624342114 | -0.860125487706866 |
| 43 | 8.5 | 8.53430383931603 | -0.137888066608808 | -0.0343038393160259 | -0.71013274749021 |
| 44 | 8.4 | 8.46329550245308 | -0.0806649634861769 | -0.063295502453075 | 0.204775138201458 |
| 45 | 8.5 | 8.48368698787787 | 0.00579914097279904 | 0.0163130121221290 | 0.309418719666709 |
| 46 | 8.7 | 8.65267841536439 | 0.145426081298132 | 0.0473215846356103 | 0.499669444396183 |
| 47 | 8.7 | 8.68824865126332 | 0.0514402107595554 | 0.0117513487366797 | -0.336333862244121 |
| 48 | 8.6 | 8.579968496711 | -0.0851648468510307 | 0.0200315032890044 | -0.488923484234839 |
| 49 | 8.5 | 8.52374288160539 | -0.0604079103247379 | -0.0237428816053893 | 0.0886787778566803 |
| 50 | 8.3 | 8.31311180350983 | -0.188854972835606 | -0.0131118035098312 | -0.459524459102798 |
| 51 | 8 | 8.22776220341937 | -0.100708917528796 | -0.227762203419365 | 0.315642902356651 |
| 52 | 8.2 | 8.01447943356547 | -0.196744756131382 | 0.185520566434526 | -0.344087289326769 |
| 53 | 8.1 | 8.03298858416205 | -0.0132014923308079 | 0.0670114158379463 | 0.656468788902478 |
| 54 | 8.1 | 8.06255105661335 | 0.0232368452714625 | 0.0374489433866447 | 0.130392330938489 |
| 55 | 8 | 8.03970540050667 | -0.0160420623676027 | -0.0397054005066689 | -0.140570424063523 |
| 56 | 7.9 | 7.97802831168556 | -0.0549450064838047 | -0.0780283116855602 | -0.139215456420619 |
| 57 | 7.9 | 7.91615239554774 | -0.0608535176785578 | -0.0161523955477431 | -0.0211441138149328 |
| 58 | 8 | 7.93545198060208 | 0.00747467701808595 | 0.0645480193979246 | 0.244520744789192 |
| 59 | 8 | 7.96520068167508 | 0.0264601922469266 | 0.0347993183249160 | 0.0679404175326343 |
| 60 | 7.9 | 7.89872396132192 | -0.0527355078436937 | 0.00127603867807973 | -0.283469326265611 |
| 61 | 8 | 7.98623349051895 | 0.0668121636373034 | 0.0137665094810453 | 0.428103429163364 |
| 62 | 7.7 | 7.75631952395923 | -0.185943521580317 | -0.0563195239592275 | -0.904194443637885 |
| 63 | 7.2 | 7.41481367387593 | -0.318120961263392 | -0.214813673875928 | -0.473185742016671 |
| 64 | 7.5 | 7.32354846566041 | -0.125148099870672 | 0.176451534339589 | 0.6912281262927 |
| 65 | 7.3 | 7.23829098133275 | -0.091217044934376 | 0.0617090186672505 | 0.121381259628967 |
| 66 | 7 | 6.97357700991644 | -0.238688393993744 | 0.0264229900835601 | -0.527675275800038 |
| 67 | 7 | 7.00535343574502 | -0.00874736864003431 | -0.00535343574501785 | 0.822912848967152 |
| 68 | 7 | 7.0669277434401 | 0.051048683953149 | -0.0669277434400967 | 0.213983038118568 |
| 69 | 7.2 | 7.21776890431996 | 0.135906561874758 | -0.0177689043199547 | 0.303671323684131 |
| 70 | 7.3 | 7.25071420025048 | 0.0483568380781457 | 0.049285799749519 | -0.313307336039727 |
| 71 | 7.1 | 7.07611430569738 | -0.141195911550297 | 0.0238856943026192 | -0.678325316143238 |
| 72 | 6.8 | 6.8441745721063 | -0.218330676964357 | -0.0441745721063067 | -0.276101577646014 |
| 73 | 6.4 | 6.3681186017649 | -0.437471930072982 | 0.0318813982351018 | -0.784590556971931 |
| 74 | 6.1 | 6.10687663620297 | -0.287734886356914 | -0.00687663620296603 | 0.535674493546359 |
| 75 | 6.5 | 6.6695206129733 | 0.433565869984015 | -0.169520612973299 | 2.58186942735932 |
| 76 | 7.7 | 7.49087366362227 | 0.762752725324344 | 0.209126336377733 | 1.17890596097675 |
| 77 | 7.9 | 7.83639480139802 | 0.408516713160404 | 0.063605198601978 | -1.26737687852553 |
| 78 | 7.5 | 7.57333104585269 | -0.161303494489143 | -0.0733310458526862 | -2.03882164460811 |
| 79 | 6.9 | 6.96011983928894 | -0.544773139016027 | -0.060119839288939 | -1.37234651814663 |
| 80 | 6.6 | 6.66851579883087 | -0.329902993657074 | -0.0685157988308718 | 0.768927974988306 |
| 81 | 6.9 | 6.86471913468883 | 0.116633535003733 | 0.0352808653111663 | 1.59796866010482 |
| 82 | 7.7 | 7.56928691897711 | 0.615626983916892 | 0.130713081022887 | 1.78570242190926 |
| 83 | 8 | 7.98183495809932 | 0.44329926183928 | 0.0181650419006784 | -0.616691422072169 |
| 84 | 8 | 8.01339896912546 | 0.0939464808181325 | -0.0133989691254577 | -1.25050214367421 |
| 85 | 7.7 | 7.69547686589742 | -0.255609700124928 | 0.00452313410258257 | -1.25133186123122 |
| 86 | 7.3 | 7.43848397623087 | -0.256782819675197 | -0.138483976230873 | -0.00419692932001889 |
| 87 | 7.4 | 7.62531941992596 | 0.118993667319690 | -0.225319419925961 | 1.34498147436459 |
| 88 | 8.1 | 7.85409050603119 | 0.212037450252055 | 0.245909493968811 | 0.333163348864071 |
| 89 | 8.3 | 8.13400594812843 | 0.269582263292263 | 0.165994051871569 | 0.205901647277511 |
| 90 | 8.2 | 8.1955038702557 | 0.0932682385149048 | 0.00449612974429121 | -0.630844684103213 |
