Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[48])
36	100.09	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	100.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	100.78	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	99.81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	98.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	98.49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	97.48	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	97.91	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	96.94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	98.53	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
46	96.82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
47	95.76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	95.27	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	97.32	99.7165	96.9234	102.5096	0.0463	0.9991	0.245	0.9991
50	96.68	99.2147	96.4215	102.0078	0.0376	0.9082	0.136	0.9972
51	97.87	100.9319	98.1388	103.7251	0.0158	0.9986	0.7844	1
52	97.42	100.8179	98.0248	103.611	0.0086	0.9807	0.9517	1
53	97.94	100.1959	97.4028	102.989	0.0567	0.9743	0.8844	0.9997
54	99.52	100.7478	97.9547	103.5409	0.1945	0.9756	0.9891	0.9999
55	100.99	100.7349	97.9418	103.528	0.429	0.803	0.9763	0.9999
56	99.92	99.3739	96.5808	102.167	0.3508	0.1284	0.9562	0.998
57	101.97	100.4811	97.688	103.2742	0.1481	0.6531	0.9145	0.9999
58	101.58	102.4787	99.6856	105.2718	0.2641	0.6394	1	1
59	99.54	100.9854	98.1923	103.7785	0.1552	0.3382	0.9999	1
60	100.83	101.4554	98.6623	104.2485	0.3304	0.9105	1	1

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
49	0.0143	-0.024	0.002	5.7432	0.4786	0.6918
50	0.0144	-0.0255	0.0021	6.4245	0.5354	0.7317
51	0.0141	-0.0303	0.0025	9.3755	0.7813	0.8839
52	0.0141	-0.0337	0.0028	11.5458	0.9622	0.9809
53	0.0142	-0.0225	0.0019	5.0892	0.4241	0.6512
54	0.0141	-0.0122	0.001	1.5076	0.1256	0.3544
55	0.0141	0.0025	2e-04	0.0651	0.0054	0.0737
56	0.0143	0.0055	5e-04	0.2982	0.0248	0.1576
57	0.0142	0.0148	0.0012	2.2167	0.1847	0.4298
58	0.0139	-0.0088	7e-04	0.8077	0.0673	0.2594
59	0.0141	-0.0143	0.0012	2.0891	0.1741	0.4172
60	0.014	-0.0062	5e-04	0.3911	0.0326	0.1805