| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.115049394894288 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 96.2 | 96.1727506829159 | 0.0272493170841415 |
| 14 | 96.1 | 96.0638452611051 | 0.0361547388948509 |
| 15 | 106 | 105.911442490283 | 0.0885575097165656 |
| 16 | 103.1 | 102.722643438400 | 0.377356561599697 |
| 17 | 102 | 101.648716316613 | 0.35128368338718 |
| 18 | 104.7 | 104.442149974139 | 0.257850025860648 |
| 19 | 86 | 81.3525136682788 | 4.64748633172121 |
| 20 | 92.1 | 96.1028763212288 | -4.0028763212288 |
| 21 | 106.9 | 102.473656127895 | 4.42634387210460 |
| 22 | 112.6 | 111.536521662608 | 1.06347833739187 |
| 23 | 101.7 | 104.20399760543 | -2.50399760543002 |
| 24 | 92 | 92.2671529434098 | -0.267152943409840 |
| 25 | 97.4 | 97.7951138106405 | -0.395113810640453 |
| 26 | 97 | 97.6424517641857 | -0.642451764185665 |
| 27 | 105.4 | 107.608044143007 | -2.20804414300669 |
| 28 | 102.7 | 104.371695153072 | -1.67169515307194 |
| 29 | 98.1 | 103.025950023087 | -4.92595002308735 |
| 30 | 104.5 | 105.141100348176 | -0.641100348176181 |
| 31 | 87.4 | 85.7379542604585 | 1.66204573954154 |
| 32 | 89.9 | 92.4673205718783 | -2.56732057187834 |
| 33 | 109.8 | 106.454410441556 | 3.34558955844442 |
| 34 | 111.7 | 112.412824634323 | -0.712824634323198 |
| 35 | 98.6 | 101.738350239905 | -3.13835023990472 |
| 36 | 96.9 | 91.738878544676 | 5.16112145532404 |
| 37 | 95.1 | 97.7973410324994 | -2.69734103249944 |
| 38 | 97 | 97.16012957598 | -0.160129575979909 |
| 39 | 112.7 | 105.803618982212 | 6.89638101778826 |
| 40 | 102.9 | 104.057112927696 | -1.15711292769589 |
| 41 | 97.4 | 99.8172240497473 | -2.41722404974732 |
| 42 | 111.4 | 106.106106556497 | 5.293893443503 |
| 43 | 87.4 | 89.052455077373 | -1.65245507737293 |
| 44 | 96.8 | 91.695763402375 | 5.10423659762506 |
| 45 | 114.1 | 112.301904120392 | 1.79809587960845 |
| 46 | 110.3 | 114.536810479263 | -4.23681047926253 |
| 47 | 103.9 | 101.030588220521 | 2.86941177947932 |
| 48 | 101.6 | 98.9701599095223 | 2.62984009047771 |
| 49 | 94.6 | 97.7367660827113 | -3.13676608271129 |
| 50 | 95.9 | 99.3381750455558 | -3.43817504555579 |
| 51 | 104.7 | 114.099446755483 | -9.39944675548271 |
| 52 | 102.8 | 103.322325374358 | -0.522325374357862 |
| 53 | 98.1 | 98.0156568235594 | 0.0843431764406262 |
| 54 | 113.9 | 111.474755892114 | 2.42524410788556 |
| 55 | 80.9 | 87.8649018232492 | -6.96490182324921 |
| 56 | 95.7 | 95.8141183134546 | -0.114118313454583 |
| 57 | 113.2 | 112.715816536717 | 0.484183463283273 |
| 58 | 105.9 | 109.482788934937 | -3.58278893493694 |
| 59 | 108.8 | 102.408286268232 | 6.39171373176765 |
| 60 | 102.3 | 100.553617086695 | 1.74638291330467 |
| 61 | 99 | 94.1611331407965 | 4.83886685920346 |
| 62 | 100.7 | 96.4032331901955 | 4.29676680980455 |
| 63 | 115.5 | 106.800410214323 | 8.69958978567664 |
| 64 | 100.7 | 105.90399780601 | -5.20399780600992 |
| 65 | 109.9 | 100.478743632438 | 9.42125636756238 |
| 66 | 114.6 | 117.622496088569 | -3.02249608856896 |
| 67 | 85.4 | 84.0615748230694 | 1.33842517693056 |
| 68 | 100.5 | 99.6323924573656 | 0.867607542634403 |
| 69 | 114.8 | 117.907181226164 | -3.10718122616414 |
| 70 | 116.5 | 110.381286482962 | 6.11871351703815 |
| 71 | 112.9 | 113.309010036028 | -0.409010036027638 |
| 72 | 102 | 106.279439486464 | -4.27943948646416 |
| 73 | 106 | 101.770036288599 | 4.22996371140052 |
| 74 | 105.3 | 103.479186406375 | 1.82081359362479 |
| 75 | 118.8 | 117.820874061487 | 0.97912593851278 |
| 76 | 106.1 | 103.404513738518 | 2.69548626148224 |
| 77 | 109.3 | 111.979321324544 | -2.67932132454409 |
| 78 | 117.2 | 116.790558252764 | 0.409441747236230 |
| 79 | 92.5 | 86.9069298391704 | 5.59307016082957 |
| 80 | 104.2 | 102.92542512251 | 1.27457487749001 |
| 81 | 112.5 | 118.093660129529 | -5.59366012952883 |
| 82 | 122.4 | 118.431836458413 | 3.96816354158689 |
| 83 | 113.3 | 115.260534140287 | -1.96053414028734 |
| 84 | 100 | 104.410961490115 | -4.41096149011474 |
| 85 | 110.7 | 107.462623707210 | 3.2373762927905 |
| 86 | 112.8 | 106.905051246492 | 5.89494875350759 |
| 87 | 109.8 | 121.257949125013 | -11.4579491250133 |
| 88 | 117.3 | 106.796762817231 | 10.5032371827686 |
| 89 | 109.1 | 111.568141912811 | -2.46814191281103 |
| 90 | 115.9 | 119.277755916957 | -3.37775591695707 |
| 91 | 96 | 93.1424257884478 | 2.85757421155219 |
| 92 | 99.8 | 105.143349056347 | -5.34334905634663 |
| 93 | 116.8 | 113.472855340258 | 3.32714465974229 |
| 94 | 115.7 | 123.398066849382 | -7.69806684938196 |
| 95 | 99.4 | 113.626328227915 | -14.2263282279152 |
| 96 | 94.3 | 99.3271230939283 | -5.02712309392825 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 97 | 108.938419436627 | 100.274422140560 | 117.602416732695 |
| 98 | 110.306657132953 | 101.584164176346 | 119.02915008956 |
| 99 | 108.555043116444 | 99.7795694623452 | 117.330516770543 |
| 100 | 114.673563258016 | 105.822707024076 | 123.524419491955 |
| 101 | 106.931273602305 | 98.0561095428096 | 115.806437661801 |
| 102 | 113.969256256700 | 105.003092120334 | 122.935420393066 |
| 103 | 94.070009785349 | 85.1613563885144 | 102.978663182184 |
| 104 | 98.3703642469609 | 89.3790768905948 | 107.361651603327 |
| 105 | 114.741116636244 | 105.561607806906 | 123.920625465582 |
| 106 | 114.483813772419 | 105.253709876615 | 123.713917668223 |
| 107 | 99.793466825051 | 90.6554623103423 | 108.931471339760 |
| 108 | 95.2274705138246 | 7.16042824888261 | 183.294512778767 |
