| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 106370 | 106370 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 109375 | 108922.636126821 | 728.117486074552 | 452.363873178612 | 0.53976180342067 |
| 3 | 116476 | 112678.716650195 | 1500.84894217363 | 3797.28334980506 | 1.84863387241178 |
| 4 | 123297 | 117660.813074953 | 2302.65564548320 | 5636.18692504668 | 3.22371511887175 |
| 5 | 114813 | 120021.844431290 | 2313.72369869994 | -5208.84443128976 | 0.0542558685507608 |
| 6 | 117925 | 121405.774176828 | 2120.59311952945 | -3480.77417682802 | -0.836149363249779 |
| 7 | 126466 | 123780.972272063 | 2176.91281018991 | 2685.02772793657 | 0.220212956480617 |
| 8 | 131235 | 125777.031444316 | 2136.47200744301 | 5457.96855568442 | -0.156203119766590 |
| 9 | 120546 | 126700.837954744 | 1866.19469106145 | -6154.83795474398 | -1.05231160837369 |
| 10 | 123791 | 127779.228249217 | 1690.53239716189 | -3988.22824921662 | -0.683042197653349 |
| 11 | 129813 | 128095.481442770 | 1383.3285582828 | 1717.51855723018 | -1.18980920536799 |
| 12 | 133463 | 128154.951678300 | 1086.98611139037 | 5308.04832169982 | -1.14527250110319 |
| 13 | 122987 | 128596.102786079 | 942.376065733486 | -5609.10278607887 | -0.558698997672846 |
| 14 | 125418 | 128877.507761650 | 794.369139382407 | -3459.50776165024 | -0.571797086477347 |
| 15 | 130199 | 128609.375783647 | 556.429347814278 | 1589.62421635329 | -0.919108483204108 |
| 16 | 133016 | 128067.596183975 | 310.473168784701 | 4948.4038160248 | -0.94995527225756 |
| 17 | 121454 | 127295.030087311 | 67.905321585922 | -5841.03008731097 | -0.936817030554 |
| 18 | 122044 | 125935.259207793 | -251.854576985965 | -3891.25920779303 | -1.23491973534993 |
| 19 | 128313 | 125477.442227980 | -297.984707970172 | 2835.55777201953 | -0.178154160893119 |
| 20 | 131556 | 125372.959262827 | -254.645247601705 | 6183.04073717347 | 0.167375519863296 |
| 21 | 120027 | 125119.388257161 | -254.404644123481 | -5092.3882571613 | 0.000929198649321629 |
| 22 | 123001 | 125741.574038062 | -58.0699420297922 | -2740.5740380617 | 0.758233468448591 |
| 23 | 130111 | 126628.305712260 | 153.542504340716 | 3482.69428774023 | 0.817234630321607 |
| 24 | 132524 | 126863.120825001 | 171.745585518399 | 5660.8791749995 | 0.070299182584383 |
| 25 | 123742 | 128166.643478809 | 425.236078248037 | -4424.64347880856 | 0.978964468090956 |
| 26 | 124931 | 128657.546233033 | 439.943815450632 | -3726.54623303296 | 0.0568003552385746 |
| 27 | 133646 | 129716.030049186 | 578.481728021924 | 3929.9699508136 | 0.535024660628051 |
| 28 | 136557 | 130981.492049868 | 732.3486001475 | 5575.50795013153 | 0.594224113316412 |
| 29 | 127509 | 132029.793728439 | 803.114405912926 | -4520.79372843921 | 0.273293054024037 |
| 30 | 128945 | 133045.084457054 | 850.636742530929 | -4100.0844570537 | 0.183528248297534 |
| 31 | 137191 | 133856.146766401 | 841.773031828317 | 3334.85323359930 | -0.0342310880615040 |
| 32 | 139716 | 134538.370247873 | 806.037812242802 | 5177.62975212698 | -0.138007149170096 |
| 33 | 129083 | 134579.516085602 | 634.720609314018 | -5496.51608560233 | -0.661616159639324 |
| 34 | 131604 | 135250.151089242 | 642.764560341107 | -3646.15108924178 | 0.0310652280783169 |
| 35 | 139413 | 135871.754021700 | 638.024870264525 | 3541.24597829978 | -0.0183043820992696 |
| 36 | 143125 | 136962.93580267 | 739.520999250287 | 6162.06419732995 | 0.391971604920762 |
| 37 | 133948 | 138585.198768345 | 937.233734896174 | -4637.19876834519 | 0.763554029794596 |
| 38 | 137116 | 140299.452987577 | 1111.26742929422 | -3183.45298757669 | 0.67210707613579 |
| 39 | 144864 | 141728.812737371 | 1182.51237432908 | 3135.18726262934 | 0.275143453461322 |
| 40 | 149277 | 143362.066795823 | 1283.46755130475 | 5914.93320417695 | 0.38988248252316 |
| 41 | 138796 | 144419.044267070 | 1232.739280721 | -5623.04426707025 | -0.195909359595220 |
| 42 | 143258 | 146080.734896432 | 1328.81395240476 | -2822.73489643150 | 0.371034281007554 |
| 43 | 150034 | 147360.701589190 | 1317.87335401739 | 2673.29841081021 | -0.0422518962105180 |
| 44 | 154708 | 148703.629540651 | 1323.48497461555 | 6004.3704593485 | 0.0216717223949620 |
| 45 | 144888 | 150351.849935064 | 1396.2178123606 | -5463.84993506396 | 0.280889600612782 |
| 46 | 148762 | 151732.454626943 | 1392.72085302249 | -2970.45462694307 | -0.0135050348961255 |
| 47 | 156500 | 153473.462277217 | 1470.72862664035 | 3026.53772278332 | 0.301261067978768 |
| 48 | 161088 | 155158.680360436 | 1518.76904937325 | 5929.31963956397 | 0.185529061879942 |
| 49 | 152772 | 157450.074448638 | 1691.81827086577 | -4678.07444863779 | 0.668305104246513 |
| 50 | 158011 | 160234.864466687 | 1936.61736545650 | -2223.86446668660 | 0.94539855781426 |
| 51 | 163318 | 161681.337709857 | 1826.83700044343 | 1636.66229014347 | -0.423964798289767 |
| 52 | 169969 | 163940.280021584 | 1923.61808306773 | 6028.71997841613 | 0.373762395198737 |
| 53 | 162269 | 166666.236813641 | 2103.32244415666 | -4397.2368136413 | 0.694006830745987 |
| 54 | 165765 | 168504.428892983 | 2043.93968936677 | -2739.42889298285 | -0.229332428011046 |
| 55 | 170600 | 169965.371509808 | 1913.36252131543 | 634.628490192199 | -0.504280730962624 |
| 56 | 174681 | 170485.205439525 | 1601.24600193717 | 4195.794560475 | -1.20537417748022 |
| 57 | 166364 | 171081.278972308 | 1376.11181069139 | -4717.27897230773 | -0.86945394987783 |
| 58 | 170240 | 172206.201926985 | 1319.85161487017 | -1966.20192698485 | -0.217273303566137 |
| 59 | 176150 | 173924.213949574 | 1409.02986450265 | 2225.78605042581 | 0.34440073698758 |
| 60 | 182056 | 176275.370226149 | 1620.04327199434 | 5780.62977385119 | 0.814920379732723 |
| 61 | 172218 | 177635.247460099 | 1561.77240568825 | -5417.24746009915 | -0.225038385294920 |
| 62 | 177856 | 179611.357059447 | 1654.57386201560 | -1755.35705944735 | 0.358393331158385 |
| 63 | 182253 | 181006.844477067 | 1596.54479843522 | 1246.15552293290 | -0.224104558523441 |
| 64 | 188090 | 182391.690147019 | 1549.12934134595 | 5698.30985298091 | -0.183115484251453 |
| 65 | 176863 | 183230.786449023 | 1390.09920574695 | -6367.78644902319 | -0.614164284780776 |
| 66 | 183273 | 184571.581464530 | 1379.05626601723 | -1298.58146452955 | -0.0426471319755319 |
| 67 | 187969 | 186167.263416092 | 1427.57515209384 | 1801.73658390819 | 0.187376856929387 |
| 68 | 194650 | 188066.865843553 | 1533.29778392748 | 6583.1341564472 | 0.408294090429373 |
| 69 | 183036 | 189618.241037839 | 1537.34668427623 | -6582.24103783894 | 0.0156365960292397 |
| 70 | 189516 | 191104.778760675 | 1525.96671238795 | -1588.77876067512 | -0.0439487287693232 |
| 71 | 193805 | 192458.110702252 | 1487.30072152546 | 1346.88929774847 | -0.149325601301638 |
| 72 | 200499 | 193896.004962966 | 1476.23487567473 | 6602.9950370343 | -0.0427355939603103 |
| 73 | 188142 | 195042.333226721 | 1402.34381663732 | -6900.33322672124 | -0.285362577693019 |
| 74 | 193732 | 195824.152219180 | 1263.36134474689 | -2092.15221918033 | -0.536741480626576 |
| 75 | 197126 | 196328.166239753 | 1093.28600847501 | 797.833760247265 | -0.656820148375207 |
| 76 | 205140 | 197623.470045321 | 1138.53308274486 | 7516.52995467906 | 0.174741327501807 |
| 77 | 191751 | 198528.137587446 | 1086.15288833711 | -6777.13758744632 | -0.202288984499335 |
| 78 | 196700 | 199026.400332053 | 954.479791319815 | -2326.40033205313 | -0.508513139034264 |
| 79 | 199784 | 199440.804816082 | 833.516054995908 | 343.195183918381 | -0.467154268113753 |
| 80 | 207360 | 199855.138482433 | 739.629392808128 | 7504.86151756699 | -0.362584327277488 |
| 81 | 196101 | 201334.646858300 | 905.344294063595 | -5233.64685829972 | 0.63998042524287 |
| 82 | 200824 | 202628.090447718 | 992.269099173051 | -1804.09044771760 | 0.33569807734033 |
| 83 | 205743 | 204464.395889486 | 1181.31271626707 | 1278.60411051385 | 0.730074444366178 |
| 84 | 212489 | 205745.387006401 | 1203.63825422513 | 6743.61299359902 | 0.086219809853726 |
| 85 | 200810 | 206739.727155024 | 1156.76056787782 | -5929.72715502414 | -0.181038647796096 |
| 86 | 203683 | 206991.917888325 | 954.158920516609 | -3308.91788832492 | -0.78243469628147 |
| 87 | 207286 | 206893.445084279 | 718.395010082095 | 392.5549157207 | -0.910505250364885 |
| 88 | 210910 | 205709.952628957 | 292.418464261533 | 5200.04737104314 | -1.64509436913863 |
| 89 | 194915 | 202968.420047704 | -387.112796165675 | -8053.4200477037 | -2.62430657544552 |
| 90 | 217920 | 209875.618460144 | 1246.63554557506 | 8044.38153985612 | 6.30943234775982 |
