Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing
ParameterValue
alpha0.934221760733587
beta0.0075036315050239
gamma1


Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing
tObservedFittedResiduals
5201.4217.379947764092-15.9799477640918
6240.8239.3529807623531.4470192376468
7241.1233.0854309619688.01456903803162
8223.8219.6204700566514.17952994334894
9206.1185.89167304811820.2083269518816
10174.7243.861153356924-69.1611533569236
11203.3171.60062649669131.6993735033089
12220.5182.20887058163638.2911294183635
13299.5182.223654279087117.276345720913
14347.4340.6325969527956.76740304720522
15338.3354.169519539684-15.8695195396843
16327.7313.97993358732913.7200664126711
17351.6281.22950607202870.3704939279719
18396.6396.785120179258-0.185120179257865
19438.8404.63921794895434.1607820510465
20395.6409.074994727523-13.4749947275229
21363.5346.61791931910816.8820806808919
22378.8409.401584993034-30.6015849930336
23357390.342706463704-33.3427064637042
24369332.69613183595136.3038681640492
25464.8321.789686318635143.010313681365
26479.1512.58292867639-33.4829286763903
27431.3495.575381423991-64.2753814239908
28366.5410.582369346959-44.0823693469586
29326.3328.941988867418-2.64198886741821
30355.1355.996084234391-0.896084234391196
31331.6361.691368845331-30.0913688453306
32261.3313.325070826617-52.0250708266165
33249235.50643481442813.4935651855719
34205.5268.810747628503-63.3107476285026
35235.6208.95057740254226.6494225974583
36240.9215.88844384816625.0115561518337
37264.9215.9496468391648.9503531608402
38253.8277.486378346606-23.6863783466061
39232.3263.845690184642-31.5456901846423
40193.8216.382710275023-22.5827102750232
41177175.9782579407281.0217420592719
42213.2181.78843241713131.411567582869
43207.2216.360357407464-9.16035740746355
44180.6191.457803639127-10.8578036391271
45188.6164.41006489251724.1899351074830
46175.4194.570008868208-19.1700088682075
47199177.580636299421.4193637006001
48179.6181.691916550140-2.09191655014047
49225.8165.15555075675760.6444492432428
50234228.6976377827925.30236221720767
51200.2241.040847840189-40.8408478401886
52183.6185.41432210187-1.81432210187015
53178.2172.3095319880005.89046801200018
54203.2178.9786360160124.2213639839901
55208.5204.0535763471744.4464236528257
56191.8193.163524884624-1.36352488462373
57172.8180.95932493805-8.1593249380499
58148175.443350677390-27.4433506773903
59159.4148.87519305420610.5248069457938
60154.5145.4591727747199.04082722528128
61213.2143.58772590979569.6122740902046
62196.4210.870964712572-14.4709647125723
63182.8201.982010879535-19.1820108795353
64176.4169.8393946514716.56060534852892
65153.6168.223296042576-14.6232960425761
66173.2150.43928168062822.7607183193722
67171174.655587781533-3.6555877815326
68151.2159.226084748562-8.02608474856234
69161.9143.03841681980618.8615831801938
70157.2159.191811049221-1.99181104922056
71201.7157.96784089173443.7321591082662
72236.4185.71172313403450.6882768659657
73356.1225.818742892226130.281257107775
74398.3349.00847787411449.2915221258856
75403.7413.149767737602-9.44976773760203
76384.6384.2222208980580.377779101941542
77365.8380.559144599655-14.7591445996553
78368.1362.7125453594235.38745464057689
79367.9380.468649444428-12.5686494444284
80347350.513764211258-3.51376421125815
81343.3342.1671316394631.13286836053726
82292.9340.375519318382-47.4755193183819
83311.5304.1202488366567.37975116334411
84300.9295.2656597150865.63434028491429
85366.9295.69168704141771.2083129585828
86356.9355.7913950992031.10860490079745
87329.7372.590326026385-42.8903260263853
88316.2316.1020313019910.0979686980088559
89269315.158417609322-46.1584176093223
90289.3262.40665893241626.8933410675842
91266.2296.524858240556-30.3248582405562
92253.6256.12699058419-2.52699058419014
93233.8249.041046510085-15.2410465100852
94228.4229.819394190820-1.41939419081976
95253.6231.30102270882722.2989772911729
96260.1242.24225044606617.8577495539343
97306.6253.42759607865253.1724039213478
98309.2299.6610379602869.53896203971397
99309.5316.531836959027-7.03183695902652
100271298.825677762622-27.8256777626222
101279.9269.2879680754710.6120319245299
102317.9273.03177790159144.8682220984093
103298.4322.152399143839-23.7523991438385
104246.7287.602797460292-40.9027974602921
105227.3248.084564512618-20.7845645126179
106209.1224.216074626107-15.1160746261070
107259.9209.96117880357249.9388211964284
108266244.00068743116921.9993125688312
109320.6264.96190307000955.6380969299911
110308.5313.448557916109-4.94855791610865
111282.2316.890513195075-34.6905131950754
112262.7269.15018160911-6.45018160911019
113263.5265.161940896833-1.66194089683307
114313.1256.59235757262856.5076424273717
115284.3315.365271797906-31.0652717979059
116252.6272.836218451920-20.2362184519204
117250.3256.121761475997-5.82176147599682
118246.5246.880033199873-0.380033199872827
119312.7245.48673854658467.213261453416
120333.2294.83304688102838.3669531189722
121446.4336.511241701296109.888758298704
122511.6437.20070195609674.3992980439039
123515.5517.620199648103-2.12019964810258
124506.4493.28413160344313.1158683965568
125483.2521.755514880255-38.555514880255
126522.3480.82675007915141.473249920849
127509.8525.669179163278-15.8691791632781
128460.7489.65751747629-28.9575174762898
129405.8473.735058813069-67.9350588130692
130375409.654034477823-34.6540344778234
131378.5377.5308210251000.969178974900444
132406.8360.74866398923746.0513360107629
133467.8410.10318833088957.6968116691108
134469.8466.3836389476543.41636105234625
135429.8474.195226965321-44.3952269653213
136355.8416.290424305038-60.4904243050383
137332.7365.130767859327-32.4307678593267
138378332.59041087971545.4095891202845
139360.5375.000782902933-14.5007829029329
140334.7345.507171739483-10.8071717394826
141319.5341.796305835742-22.2963058357415
142323.1323.308764829116-0.208764829116376
143363.6319.04580738768144.5541926123194
144352.1345.0094669266147.09053307338615
145411.9357.76814076444754.1318592355527
146388.6414.648918147557-26.0489181475573
147416.4389.65156054671626.7484394532844
148360.7394.688179696047-33.9881796960473
149338372.201751372243-34.2017513722433
150417.2340.22149920316276.9785007968378
151388.4415.365958048884-26.9659580488837
152371.1367.3137180818633.78628191813749
153331.5380.339927766416-48.8399277664162
154353.7341.06349481159312.6365051884066
155396.7349.02969436141447.6703056385863
156447372.5678995275374.4321004724703
157533.5449.71940353855283.7805964614475
158565.4547.4344512934317.9655487065696
159542.3564.130297789759-21.8302977897588
160488.7518.051753545877-29.3517535458773
161467.1499.248021691552-32.1480216915516
162531.3481.92091872257549.3790812774253
163496.1525.183873973938-29.0838739739382
164444473.526871376572-29.5268713765719
165403.4453.137295318286-49.7372953182856
166386.3421.565105920546-35.265105920546
167394.1381.43236372016212.6676362798384
168404.1372.84385328831631.2561467116844
169462.1406.63156060987355.4684393901267
170448.1476.934874495087-28.8348744950873
171432.3446.091783349183-13.7917833491827
172386.3412.423845479407-26.1238454794072
173395.2393.4142047737521.78579522624796
174421.9405.4087589047516.4912410952500
175382.9417.812568974774-34.9125689747744
176384.2365.41922705502218.7807729449783
177345.5390.140854790550-44.6408547905496
178323.4357.855611158753-34.4556111587526
179372.6319.59199539369753.0080046063031
180376353.29225201828822.7077479817124
181462.7377.03389267600385.6661073239968
182487471.64842352548315.3515764745171
183444.2487.155674935576-42.9556749355757
184399.3426.461026364487-27.1610263644873
185394.9407.477675054509-12.5776750545091
186455.4403.59600410436751.803995895633
187414448.991697644219-34.9916976442186
188375.5397.662312265537-22.1623122655367
189347383.666298690123-36.6662986901226
190339.4359.317361400204-19.9173614002038
191385.8332.98229131737952.8177086826213
192378.8365.53868626484513.2613137351554
193451.8383.55805184899468.2419481510058
194446.1462.750865775255-16.6508657752548
195422.5444.179572201241-21.6795722012406
196383.1403.041895221968-19.9418952219679
197352.8393.244365753943-40.4443657539425
198445.3362.27805046619583.0219495338048
199367.5436.450117080613-68.9501170806129
200355.1353.2299708419881.87002915801168
201326.2361.378227251825-35.1782272518253
202319.8341.266966966114-21.4669669661135
203331.8309.83905007342521.9609499265746
204340.9317.26855855681523.6314414431848
205394.1342.77808894284551.3219110571545
206417.2407.8923066558649.30769334413634
207369.9406.715880386404-36.8158803864037
208349.2358.188899594305-8.98889959430466
209321.4354.905541320757-33.5055413207575
210405.7334.68888653419471.0111134658059
211342.9388.289050866499-45.3890508664987
212316.5334.147616759449-17.6476167594486
213284.2320.325785707875-36.1257857078752
214270.9301.480030941029-30.5800309410293
215288.8257.64717819609531.1528218039053
216278.8277.8085192810540.991480718946036
217324.4279.34081069488545.0591893051151
218310.9339.084884231245-28.1848842312451
219299300.267542972792-1.26754297279228
220273287.960325462963-14.9603254629631
221279.3277.0295954729152.27040452708530
222359.2289.53075738935769.6692426106427
223305343.016071506576-38.0160715065764
224282.1295.243885368957-13.1438853689565
225250.3287.489550943-37.1895509430002
226246.5265.046665129393-18.5466651293930
227257.9233.46135937432824.4386406256715
228266.5246.78128956066219.7187104393385
229315.9267.48017715055448.4198228494461
230318.4330.590302517190-12.1903025171904
231295.4305.42541018664-10.0254101866398
232266.4285.290415527991-18.8904155279906
233245.8271.427570725925-25.6275707259251
234362.8257.523685705886105.276314294114
235324.9341.118489916949-16.2184899169486
236294.2313.781640569003-19.5816405690028
237289.5299.472172894172-9.972172894172
238295.2310.688581317931-15.4885813179305
239290.3276.95119856994413.3488014300557
240272277.944297392058-5.9442973920577
241307.4276.41632738781530.9836726121854
242328.7326.8534279765861.84657202341413
243292.9309.673520460121-16.7735204601211
244249.1281.174837713217-32.0748377132166
245230.4256.753668521682-26.3536685216815
246361.5245.999090841682115.500909158318
247321.7332.498426388912-10.7984263889118
248277.2307.30504371797-30.1050437179701
249260.7286.091278302775-25.3912783027753
250251286.745155106907-35.7451551069072
251257.6231.46356807255926.1364319274412
252241.8242.033156373157-0.2331563731573
253287.5247.57733769641539.9226623035847
254292.3310.841763202449-18.5417632024491
255274.7273.1562402135531.54375978644725
256254.2258.257918715464-4.05791871546404
257230263.179169154715-33.1791691547148
258339249.30302190528489.6969780947159
259318.2311.9459898897346.25401011026582
260287299.024830424591-12.0248304245913
261295.8295.6546571350570.145342864942904
262284327.43452784741-43.4345278474102
263271263.7981446483147.20185535168577
264262.7253.0644207878989.63557921210241
265340.6269.71996267170070.8800373283005
266379.4368.71539012907610.6846098709236
267373.3353.5832321587519.7167678412500
268355.2349.4804870482835.71951295171743
269338.4370.591778133650-32.1917781336497
270466.9369.33324383359797.5667561664033
271451431.40981249702119.5901875029789
272422422.146569617097-0.146569617097498
273429.2438.207336211451-9.0073362114507
274425.9476.639001182337-50.7390011823367
275460.7397.4709825150363.2290174849698
276463.6427.36856080689336.2314391931071
277541.4478.58788710144262.812112898558
278544.2592.94921767412-48.7492176741197
279517.5516.5143805766840.985619423315939
280469.4482.871014300834-13.4710143008336
281439.4489.260059191979-49.8600591919794
282549481.30426877612267.6957312238777
283533516.9035723141516.0964276858506
284506.1495.49486101228510.6051389877153
285484523.133738950091-39.1337389500908
286457537.724775523308-80.724775523308
287481.5435.5809090857845.9190909142199
288469.5445.08291733703424.4170826629662
289544.7480.82469084034263.8753091596585
290541.2594.025836785133-52.8258367851329
291521.5523.098024791139-1.59802479113876
292469.7484.073741038731-14.3737410387311
293434.4485.740650296926-51.3406502969264
294542.6473.64065598711568.9593440128846
295517.3519.935101632659-2.6351016326588
296485.7479.3399722848746.3600277151263
297465.8498.089436444208-32.289436444208
298447514.773650195327-67.7736501953268
299426.6431.849160588089-5.24916058808947
300411.6395.37696101719616.223038982804
301467.5418.57407356238348.9259264376171
302484.5508.023154861304-23.5231548613040
303451.2469.510356167094-18.3103561670944
304417.4420.586409743221-3.18640974322057
305379.9427.680955546179-47.780955546179
306484.7414.25939927039570.4406007296053
307455463.949943771018-8.94994377101767
308420.8424.502934777636-3.70293477763579
309416.5427.910154744238-11.4101547442384
310376.3459.750212817967-83.4502128179667
311405.6364.22609381415441.3739061858458
312405.8375.28888098830730.5111190116927
313500.8409.75385914924591.0461408507555
314514539.039163818192-25.0391638181920
315475.5503.79889622906-28.2988962290601
316430.1444.468451458244-14.3684514582438
317414.4440.720042514029-26.3200425140292
318538445.85877966677392.1412203332268
319526519.4727336142446.52726638575643
320488.5490.540956685554-2.04095668555385
321520.2499.07127634130121.1287236586986
322504.4565.471033669614-61.0710336696136
323568.5491.1024174984177.3975825015905
324610.6525.50766061172785.092339388273
325818620.543632685692197.456367314308
326830.9870.127160676904-39.2271606769042
327835.9821.13844683089614.7615531691036
328782780.440871729651.55912827034979
329762.3808.350695091502-46.0506950915016
330856.9811.26385620408245.6361437959182
331820.9844.87212984527-23.9721298452699
332769.6767.8833186765831.71668132341688
333752.2792.140068603051-39.9400686030514
334724.4806.023160668627-81.6231606686272
335723.1717.5259214324785.57407856752218
336719.5675.68120486382843.8187951361724
337817.4734.73744982056882.662550179432
338803.3863.905805244538-60.6058052445377
339752.5800.403630971258-47.9036309712579
340689709.037907533863-20.0379075338631
341630.4709.449024093298-79.0490240932977
342765.5667.5309116424697.9690883575403
343757.7752.9047513811054.79524861889536
344732.2712.25619889618819.9438011038125
345702.6746.601042269926-44.0010422699255
346683.3753.807139675773-70.5071396757727
347709.5676.45551787085133.0444821291489
348702.2665.80904155243436.3909584475665
349784.8710.43527272403174.3647272759686
350810.9831.49896314469-20.5989631446902
351755.6807.282510236975-51.6825102369748
352656.8714.90304313004-58.1030431300403
353615.1672.283815559863-57.1838155598628
354745.3653.69509942375791.604900576243
355694.1732.286467421055-38.1864674210552
356675.7654.95064268413420.7493573158657
357643.7686.104047038175-42.4040470381749
358622.1692.824095747583-70.7240957475829
359634.6612.91572118664421.6842788133564
360588598.309082325298-10.3090823252978
361689.7594.64538295752795.0546170424727
362673.9730.373942491544-56.4739424915437
363647.9669.450019551616-21.5500195516164
364568.8611.541869383852-42.7418693838524
365545.7583.225012704288-37.5250127042875
366632.6576.4487396244556.1512603755505
367643.8623.10088313243220.6991168675679
368593.1603.357344154358-10.2573441543578
369579.7606.247501755565-26.5475017555653
370546618.069996908006-72.0699969080056
371562.9543.07414598627119.8258540137292
372572.5525.2187408615847.281259138420


Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing
tForecast95% Lower Bound95% Upper Bound
373580.099455369910497.41247545428662.786435285539
374613.166933372231496.573630616928729.760236127534
375611.794416567326471.528765899302752.06006723535
376574.281613766588351.007546890132797.555680643044