Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 0.112416719167165 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 0.7487 | 0.77021543621658 | -0.0215154362165800 |
14 | 0.7389 | 0.737638486782025 | 0.00126151321797496 |
15 | 0.7337 | 0.732180533600437 | 0.00151946639956313 |
16 | 0.751 | 0.749510544924539 | 0.00148945507546094 |
17 | 0.7382 | 0.735256331073275 | 0.00294366892672526 |
18 | 0.7159 | 0.713835647063186 | 0.00206435293681373 |
19 | 0.7542 | 0.758762077687273 | -0.00456207768727257 |
20 | 0.7636 | 0.7290632163499 | 0.0345367836501003 |
21 | 0.7433 | 0.77315026377842 | -0.0298502637784199 |
22 | 0.7658 | 0.739929994420729 | 0.0258700055792712 |
23 | 0.7627 | 0.754395602265267 | 0.0083043977347328 |
24 | 0.748 | 0.779971607373924 | -0.0319716073739239 |
25 | 0.7692 | 0.73675211734447 | 0.0324478826555293 |
26 | 0.785 | 0.757891577184504 | 0.0271084228154962 |
27 | 0.7913 | 0.7779880152453 | 0.0133119847546993 |
28 | 0.772 | 0.808515098750218 | -0.0365150987502176 |
29 | 0.788 | 0.755873208938475 | 0.0321267910615254 |
30 | 0.807 | 0.762125605148992 | 0.0448743948510082 |
31 | 0.8268 | 0.855584241788373 | -0.0287842417883730 |
32 | 0.8244 | 0.799439946424209 | 0.0249600535757915 |
33 | 0.8487 | 0.834875626078432 | 0.0138243739215682 |
34 | 0.8572 | 0.845145359616343 | 0.0120546403836573 |
35 | 0.8214 | 0.844678255714324 | -0.0232782557143235 |
36 | 0.8827 | 0.840162090238525 | 0.0425379097614749 |
37 | 0.9216 | 0.869799148060349 | 0.0518008519396509 |
38 | 0.8865 | 0.908456015103419 | -0.0219560151034186 |
39 | 0.8816 | 0.878843967239957 | 0.00275603276004266 |
40 | 0.8884 | 0.90101702948735 | -0.0126170294873493 |
41 | 0.9466 | 0.870149617677011 | 0.076450382322989 |
42 | 0.918 | 0.91591651583993 | 0.00208348416006976 |
43 | 0.9337 | 0.973556362701898 | -0.0398563627018984 |
44 | 0.9559 | 0.903066288641063 | 0.0528337113589374 |
45 | 0.9626 | 0.9683770264477 | -0.00577702644770073 |
46 | 0.9434 | 0.958845834908377 | -0.0154458349083770 |
47 | 0.8639 | 0.929824478113762 | -0.0659244781137619 |
48 | 0.7996 | 0.883741230302334 | -0.0841412303023337 |
49 | 0.668 | 0.787718908620932 | -0.119718908620932 |
50 | 0.6572 | 0.657910467490316 | -0.000710467490316335 |
51 | 0.6928 | 0.650998944654984 | 0.0418010553450159 |
52 | 0.6438 | 0.707613214169847 | -0.0638132141698472 |
53 | 0.6454 | 0.630012078351873 | 0.0153879216481265 |
54 | 0.6873 | 0.623849540429396 | 0.0634504595706037 |
55 | 0.7265 | 0.728365657343788 | -0.00186565734378763 |
56 | 0.7912 | 0.702211488759564 | 0.0889885112404356 |
57 | 0.8114 | 0.801170329559346 | 0.0102296704406537 |
58 | 0.8281 | 0.807910700016756 | 0.0201892999832435 |
59 | 0.8393 | 0.815933997340499 | 0.0233660026595008 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
60 | 0.85851659864187 | 0.780478352628973 | 0.936554844654767 |
61 | 0.845912512994948 | 0.736224834356718 | 0.955600191633178 |
62 | 0.833680136242455 | 0.700138835226185 | 0.967221437258725 |
63 | 0.826359261392714 | 0.672418851150865 | 0.980299671634562 |
64 | 0.844429266735199 | 0.668482045294064 | 1.02037648817633 |
65 | 0.826981082564454 | 0.637433918413744 | 1.01652824671517 |
66 | 0.799924698385474 | 0.600244217980315 | 0.999605178790633 |
67 | 0.848064527035503 | 0.621948448937796 | 1.07418060513321 |
68 | 0.820053278095496 | 0.587384144871759 | 1.05272241131923 |
69 | 0.830462748045982 | 0.58169523402733 | 1.07923026206464 |
70 | 0.826940054829755 | 0.56663519837355 | 1.08724491128596 |
71 | 0.814788232265826 | -36.9043927298523 | 38.5339691943839 |