| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.897909443669848 |
| beta | 0.121731637445269 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 294912 | 285544.431319981 | 9367.56868001918 |
| 14 | 293488 | 293971.846090189 | -483.846090189123 |
| 15 | 290555 | 291712.505658404 | -1157.50565840380 |
| 16 | 284736 | 285260.591331686 | -524.591331686475 |
| 17 | 281818 | 281804.898672166 | 13.1013278336031 |
| 18 | 287854 | 287956.630200848 | -102.630200848449 |
| 19 | 316263 | 326853.300613778 | -10590.3006137776 |
| 20 | 325412 | 321566.000273580 | 3845.99972641963 |
| 21 | 326011 | 323685.540423818 | 2325.45957618172 |
| 22 | 328282 | 315493.685833105 | 12788.3141668948 |
| 23 | 317480 | 318613.054615749 | -1133.05461574852 |
| 24 | 317539 | 322122.483657163 | -4583.48365716252 |
| 25 | 313737 | 323537.415756767 | -9800.41575676686 |
| 26 | 312276 | 312473.656537743 | -197.656537743344 |
| 27 | 309391 | 309133.074789482 | 257.925210517715 |
| 28 | 302950 | 302709.928061431 | 240.071938568552 |
| 29 | 300316 | 298952.964714496 | 1363.03528550430 |
| 30 | 304035 | 305983.45226617 | -1948.45226616971 |
| 31 | 333476 | 343260.82938262 | -9784.82938262017 |
| 32 | 337698 | 339616.444050717 | -1918.44405071699 |
| 33 | 335932 | 334862.583022363 | 1069.41697763669 |
| 34 | 323931 | 324727.874595050 | -796.874595049536 |
| 35 | 313927 | 311523.916559079 | 2403.08344092086 |
| 36 | 314485 | 315342.959249098 | -857.959249098029 |
| 37 | 313218 | 317417.124090838 | -4199.12409083801 |
| 38 | 309664 | 310882.84271168 | -1218.84271168016 |
| 39 | 302963 | 305139.268241003 | -2176.26824100252 |
| 40 | 298989 | 294904.71189283 | 4084.28810717002 |
| 41 | 298423 | 293447.909417953 | 4975.09058204654 |
| 42 | 301631 | 302391.836013607 | -760.836013607448 |
| 43 | 329765 | 338698.948976348 | -8933.94897634757 |
| 44 | 335083 | 335721.225426708 | -638.22542670765 |
| 45 | 327616 | 331736.865112247 | -4120.86511224665 |
| 46 | 309119 | 315795.872347194 | -6676.87234719389 |
| 47 | 295916 | 296381.391523783 | -465.391523782630 |
| 48 | 291413 | 295130.355029477 | -3717.35502947686 |
| 49 | 291542 | 291699.734879385 | -157.734879384516 |
| 50 | 284678 | 287281.358562566 | -2603.35856256558 |
| 51 | 276475 | 278458.604235113 | -1983.6042351129 |
| 52 | 272566 | 267629.5575063 | 4936.44249369996 |
| 53 | 264981 | 265575.522763335 | -594.522763334506 |
| 54 | 263290 | 266025.682297671 | -2735.68229767052 |
| 55 | 296806 | 292139.159990631 | 4666.84000936855 |
| 56 | 303598 | 299956.635784707 | 3641.36421529332 |
| 57 | 286994 | 298621.921577478 | -11627.9215774777 |
| 58 | 276427 | 275170.902420806 | 1256.09757919359 |
| 59 | 266424 | 263712.810092928 | 2711.18990707211 |
| 60 | 267153 | 264286.453735383 | 2866.54626461701 |
| 61 | 268381 | 267008.206253153 | 1372.79374684725 |
| 62 | 262522 | 264147.859129584 | -1625.85912958387 |
| 63 | 255542 | 256921.976843391 | -1379.97684339058 |
| 64 | 253158 | 248171.487665143 | 4986.51233485743 |
| 65 | 243803 | 246367.213856235 | -2564.21385623497 |
| 66 | 250741 | 244791.075928556 | 5949.92407144394 |
| 67 | 280445 | 279121.020830441 | 1323.97916955902 |
| 68 | 285257 | 284429.313356364 | 827.686643635912 |
| 69 | 270976 | 279838.082179015 | -8862.08217901486 |
| 70 | 261076 | 261515.848421809 | -439.848421808711 |
| 71 | 255603 | 249880.152477315 | 5722.84752268463 |
| 72 | 260376 | 254134.163854508 | 6241.83614549204 |
| 73 | 263903 | 261036.740957824 | 2866.25904217645 |
| 74 | 264291 | 260761.255380406 | 3529.74461959425 |
| 75 | 263276 | 260204.073712558 | 3071.92628744247 |
| 76 | 262572 | 258423.578484320 | 4148.4215156796 |
| 77 | 256167 | 257220.283077732 | -1053.28307773196 |
| 78 | 264221 | 260550.951310324 | 3670.04868967616 |
| 79 | 293860 | 296457.037692250 | -2597.03769225033 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 80 | 300597.60195908 | 291690.357497741 | 309504.846420420 |
| 81 | 295981.006901015 | 283459.160170707 | 308502.853631322 |
| 82 | 288674.578714217 | 273015.343944749 | 304333.813483685 |
| 83 | 279975.611404529 | 261459.463553877 | 298491.75925518 |
| 84 | 281394.657842215 | 259522.52264454 | 303266.793039889 |
| 85 | 284019.163037638 | 258665.327653885 | 309372.998421391 |
| 86 | 282266.188694958 | 253754.518724470 | 310777.858665446 |
| 87 | 279051.090073625 | 247517.40376877 | 310584.776378479 |
| 88 | 274805.233219444 | 240374.146123622 | 309236.320315265 |
| 89 | 269077.783282806 | 231963.718660532 | 306191.847905080 |
| 90 | 274176.786930806 | 232878.063182934 | 315475.510678677 |
| 91 | 307014.564577500 | 257793.98058216 | 356235.148572839 |
