Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing
ParameterValue
alpha0.834190584507086
beta0.0314371802584989
gamma1


Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing
tObservedFittedResiduals
13299.5237.62747618614461.8725238138558
14347.4334.68420332637312.7157966736274
15338.3337.1242383196831.17576168031724
16327.7326.9401176591620.759882340838374
17351.6351.0532409790260.546759020973809
18396.6398.633000518542-2.03300051854166
19438.8389.48984628835249.3101537116478
20395.6405.364615816722-9.76461581672157
21363.5370.107395833236-6.60739583323613
22378.8311.42696738429967.373032615701
23357425.406491421209-68.4064914212094
24369393.290788189667-24.2907881896666
25464.8513.533753724449-48.7337537244489
26479.1521.378815401933-42.2788154019327
27431.3463.753172723408-32.4531727234081
28366.5415.288175047649-48.7881750476486
29326.3395.158503716480-68.8585037164795
30355.1376.753057716640-21.6530577166395
31331.6353.723145062591-22.1231450625905
32261.3304.340882187927-43.0408821879271
33249246.9603481813052.03965181869464
34205.5216.679853301282-11.1798533012818
35235.6222.94211720215212.6578827978481
36240.9251.58308497042-10.6830849704202
37264.9328.25761734098-63.35761734098
38253.8300.622155813587-46.8221558135869
39232.3246.570735622218-14.2707356222176
40193.8217.97402176317-24.1740217631701
41177203.015550718155-26.0155507181548
42213.2203.9928181937059.20718180629467
43207.2205.5960254773351.60397452266457
44180.6182.439793276172-1.8397932761722
45188.6169.17274925615519.4272507438454
46175.4158.31067010932017.0893298906797
47199187.48481542995511.5151845700454
48179.6207.498578232654-27.8985782326538
49225.8239.439214992592-13.6392149925919
50234249.392887806181-15.3928878061805
51200.2226.171511133149-25.9715111331492
52183.6186.658271387136-3.05827138713602
53178.2187.212548205495-9.01254820549545
54203.2207.693982599485-4.49398259948549
55208.5195.84678876968312.6532112303171
56191.8180.67041094686111.1295890531393
57172.8180.531206710462-7.73120671046246
58148147.7256237045150.274376295484814
59159.4158.5941472168100.805852783190488
60154.5160.696894105894-6.19689410589396
61213.2204.0714491719139.12855082808741
62196.4230.365107477265-33.9651074772655
63182.8189.974333410757-7.17433341075713
64176.4170.2599431962566.14005680374376
65153.6176.720028868842-23.120028868842
66173.2181.741312509294-8.5413125092945
67171168.8718272034582.12817279654195
68151.2148.1656355549253.03436444507534
69161.9139.63601061000722.2639893899932
70157.2134.8061176483222.3938823516799
71201.7164.58153835001437.1184616499865
72236.4196.54416510358639.855834896414
73356.1307.95487481570648.1451251842944
74398.3368.74231903975929.5576809602414
75403.7382.88247820165620.8175217983443
76384.6380.236813179634.36318682037029
77365.8380.127495156166-14.3274951561659
78368.1438.947318995252-70.8473189952516
79367.9376.476661613892-8.57666161389199
80347325.42662496645621.5733750335442
81343.3329.05557059519414.2444294048058
82292.9293.809700047159-0.909700047159447
83311.5318.635578971566-7.13557897156625
84300.9314.220628238634-13.3206282386343
85366.9403.388371531988-36.4883715319876
86356.9389.091648366189-32.1916483661891
87329.7348.65279769522-18.9527976952199
88316.2311.3075662391674.89243376083311
89269307.082879226767-38.0828792267666
90289.3316.793051056817-27.4930510568173
91266.2296.430059110568-30.2300591105678
92253.6239.49312356823414.1068764317660
93233.8237.186895038201-3.38689503820149
94228.4198.02814214525430.3718578547456
95253.6239.98753593505613.6124640649436
96260.1249.94801769467310.1519823053270
97306.6339.008756096236-32.4087560962364
98309.2324.090947732778-14.890947732778
99309.5300.0269105009579.47308949904306
100271290.523410386492-19.5234103864915
101279.9258.86288483304621.0371151669538
102317.9320.26736367161-2.36736367160978
103298.4320.511644503176-22.1116445031757
104246.7274.904395761274-28.2043957612742
105227.3234.090662576146-6.79066257614608
106209.1197.3722509324411.7277490675601
107259.9218.69359495676541.2064050432348
108266250.74243224969015.2575677503104
109320.6337.232706264193-16.6327062641926
110308.5339.199022799016-30.6990227990157
111282.2305.595219572508-23.3952195725083
112262.7264.450583587072-1.75058358707173
113263.5253.8723120247479.627687975253
114313.1298.44496198337814.6550380166224
115284.3308.950332594884-24.6503325948843
116252.6260.242475622508-7.64247562250821
117250.3239.71286832321910.5871316767814
118246.5218.26938366031128.2306163396887
119312.7260.61976485260752.0802351473927
120333.2297.08221912049336.117780879507
121446.4412.91330169544833.4866983045515
122511.6461.75040030177449.8495996982261
123515.5496.78733338760418.7126666123960
124506.4485.61993897251320.7800610274875
125483.2495.424325051488-12.2243250514877
126522.3560.292748686061-37.9927486860613
127509.8518.89282447781-9.09282447780964
128460.7470.719734730927-10.0197347309272
129405.8446.758347791267-40.9583477912673
130375369.7271233421295.27287665787145
131378.5408.946064638785-30.4460646387847
132406.8371.00395402295635.7960459770435
133467.8502.744824266615-34.9448242666155
134469.8496.31155071398-26.5115507139802
135429.8460.514091290277-30.7140912902769
136355.8409.273950575544-53.4739505755436
137332.7351.208595366422-18.5085953664218
138378379.995421767594-1.99542176759383
139360.5370.589625795166-10.0896257951661
140334.7329.4087470072065.29125299279366
141319.5315.0468954436584.45310455634245
142323.1288.67269792949134.4273020705092
143363.6339.59553971736424.0044602826359
144352.1356.752272690985-4.65227269098472
145411.9428.735450171522-16.8354501715219
146388.6434.059236163854-45.4592361638543
147416.4381.57452319231934.8254768076811
148360.7380.716348230215-20.0163482302155
149338355.979403173315-17.9794031733147
150417.2389.07017652360428.1298234763963
151388.4403.295842983107-14.8958429831075
152371.1358.65892425820112.4410757417992
153331.5348.865331958622-17.3653319586215
154353.7307.66017994218846.0398200578117
155396.7368.10785359912628.5921464008740
156447384.12974458995962.8702554100411
157533.5530.3152915652053.1847084347952
158565.4553.88349592476711.5165040752327
159542.3565.735654806396-23.4356548063965
160488.7497.427065666698-8.72706566669757
161467.1482.452878998958-15.3528789989584
162531.3550.414094784214-19.1140947842138
163496.1515.561418835842-19.4614188358421
164444465.666220719523-21.6662207195231
165403.4418.149993873018-14.7499938730181
166386.3386.0580294517970.241970548203142
167394.1406.636200508395-12.5362005083949
168404.1391.64650741350712.4534925864932
169462.1474.973714289868-12.8737142898677
170448.1480.776403728914-32.6764037289139
171432.3447.02623672374-14.7262367237404
172386.3394.483547810563-8.18354781056314
173395.2377.60133159082517.5986684091753
174421.9456.711511348712-34.811511348712
175382.9409.284132305172-26.3841323051724
176384.2357.58883714803926.6111628519605
177345.5353.631653040669-8.13165304066905
178323.4330.274534280740-6.87453428073957
179372.6337.89842695666834.7015730433322
180376365.57883461897710.4211653810226
181462.7436.86472579611625.8352742038841
182487471.10841380619715.8915861938034
183444.2481.542046865483-37.3420468654834
184399.3410.00614536983-10.7061453698300
185394.9395.348280574100-0.448280574100465
186455.4450.1906610102965.20933898970418
187414436.88910858954-22.8891085895402
188375.5395.730116735195-20.2301167351949
189347347.072853683126-0.0728536831256292
190339.4330.4908665998148.90913340018642
191385.8359.00849755156426.7915024484359
192378.8376.0379777338182.76202226618238
193451.8443.6232318859798.17676811402123
194446.1460.613734749189-14.5137347491886
195422.5436.210923450448-13.7109234504480
196383.1389.725762184658-6.62576218465836
197352.8379.807791542914-27.0077915429138
198445.3406.71620417737338.5837958226275
199367.5416.756905232538-49.2569052325378
200355.1354.7719564387250.328043561274967
201326.2327.571762781223-1.37176278122251
202319.8311.6617793136808.13822068632032
203331.8340.127512628360-8.32751262836035
204340.9323.68277311967517.2172268803247
205394.1395.811999186641-1.71199918664138
206417.2398.40661380732518.7933861926746
207369.9402.044103018541-32.1441030185406
208349.2344.0270064828215.1729935171785
209321.4340.223476236548-18.8234762365475
210405.7378.81187608281926.8881239171810
211342.9366.447768672191-23.547768672191
212316.5334.516743842692-18.0167438426921
213284.2293.719817857925-9.51981785792492
214270.9273.199229921646-2.29922992164637
215288.8285.9789363455542.82106365444639
216278.8282.599199646799-3.79919964679857
217324.4322.3677047637362.03229523626385
218310.9328.286624385005-17.3866243850052
219299295.5503651292893.44963487071067
220273276.590977095724-3.59097709572376
221279.3262.18737329203517.1126267079650
222359.2328.42282671843830.7771732815623
223305315.485273708738-10.4852737087383
224282.1295.993398946766-13.8933989467657
225250.3262.117445690281-11.8174456902813
226246.5241.7026846333114.79731536668908
227257.9259.552901517866-1.65290151786553
228266.5251.68155912923514.8184408707646
229315.9305.86691528870910.0330847112905
230318.4315.5943371441022.80566285589759
231295.4303.953123143209-8.55312314320912
232266.4274.663141610807-8.26314161080745
233245.8260.326895347538-14.5268953475375
234362.8295.47437034266267.3256296573381
235324.9307.61450466145217.2854953385485
236294.2311.327565494311-17.1275654943113
237289.5275.02653570234514.4734642976546
238295.2280.17312536255015.0268746374505
239290.3310.393457438245-20.0934574382453
240272291.134291337191-19.1342913371907
241307.4318.39428897141-10.9942889714102
242328.7309.61902062611119.0809793738891
243292.9309.996014049050-17.0960140490503
244249.1273.990462735576-24.8904627355763
245230.4244.940768552487-14.5407685524866
246361.5288.56622411975872.9337758802419
247321.7298.91759317125322.7824068287475
248277.2301.90637000184-24.70637000184
249260.7265.10978747999-4.40978747998992
250251254.615925394851-3.6159253948513
251257.6260.504177241373-2.90417724137279
252241.8255.189722282258-13.3897222822579
253287.5283.3145311894074.18546881059319
254292.3291.4578137779210.842186222079363
255274.7272.2171214175532.48287858244726
256254.2252.2612767187551.9387232812453
257230247.720219616292-17.7202196162924
258339302.58468213606336.4153178639372
259318.2278.25641602984539.9435839701551
260287288.304590422258-1.30459042225783
261295.8274.68837325630921.1116267436907
262284286.288122087440-2.28812208744034
263271296.208109798546-25.2081097985464
264262.7271.071932395441-8.37193239544115
265340.6311.51982258978629.0801774102144
266379.4342.71641532182236.6835846781776
267373.3351.26003399662722.0399660033731
268355.2343.27239004795411.9276099520458
269338.4343.450492533221-5.05049253322102
270466.9460.0977503493076.80224965069266
271451394.06858158859956.9314184114012
272422403.08274740047518.9172525995249
273429.2409.4387813093119.7612186906898
274425.9415.00858808267510.8914119173249
275460.7439.38538733655921.3146126634412
276463.6460.2286812218943.37131877810572
277541.4564.015329469431-22.615329469431
278544.2562.696325620106-18.4963256201063
279517.5514.8111447785062.68885522149355
280469.4480.380068375344-10.9800683753439
281439.4456.080747737613-16.6807477376128
282549604.457449151712-55.4574491517116
283533481.53649826627751.4635017337229
284506.1472.24085562608433.8591443739165
285484489.525707073122-5.52570707312242
286457470.559693217319-13.5596932173191
287481.5476.6481882198864.85181178011368
288469.5479.682441849689-10.1824418496889
289544.7567.718561709015-23.0185617090148
290541.2565.287878180975-24.0878781809745
291521.5514.604053841856.89594615814985
292469.7479.791550330909-10.0915503309088
293434.4453.845780084513-19.4457800845126
294542.6590.308879245888-47.7088792458881
295517.3489.26701353597728.0329864640233
296485.7457.60194587398428.0980541260165
297465.8462.7058417597423.09415824025808
298447448.684024928905-1.68402492890539
299426.6466.008335457636-39.4083354576363
300411.6427.865003909839-16.2650039098388
301467.5494.845873504418-27.345873504418
302484.5483.459871780461.04012821953984
303451.2459.313553104532-8.1135531045324
304417.4412.5862453416834.81375465831746
305379.9397.681557749069-17.7815577490687
306484.7510.249071521564-25.5490715215643
307455442.93013030512612.0698696948738
308420.8402.60756168415918.1924383158412
309416.5396.42522066606520.074779333935
310376.3396.178937745945-19.8789377459445
311405.6387.77501938932117.8249806106787
312405.8400.4140608589125.38593914108765
313500.8481.77155726749719.0284427325030
314514515.647174743155-1.64717474315535
315475.5486.806660292441-11.3066602924408
316430.1437.949490856276-7.84949085627557
317414.4408.1047603309786.2952396690215
318538551.565953969052-13.5659539690522
319526497.32432427318328.6756757268171
320488.5466.21370771287822.2862922871217
321520.2462.00783473966158.1921652603393
322504.4483.75011076966120.6498892303388
323568.5523.66164621829444.8383537817058
324610.6559.20039101506751.3996089849327
325818725.48716090512792.5128390948735
326830.9833.897165879864-2.99716587986450
327835.9791.70469101138844.1953089886119
328782768.99028122876813.0097187712316
329762.3750.19003056281312.1099694371869
330856.91018.79199894762-161.891998947615
331820.9831.464573520263-10.5645735202635
332769.6739.76052707006429.8394729299358
333752.2741.56884236901510.6311576309854
334724.4705.39250955454419.0074904454564
335723.1761.351679831748-38.2516798317477
336719.5728.32976810715-8.82976810715081
337817.4872.180480638654-54.7804806386544
338803.3838.572796558785-35.2727965587854
339752.5774.049546250114-21.5495462501136
340689693.188259910466-4.18825991046617
341630.4659.132267092745-28.7322670927454
342765.5816.947179271117-51.4471792711173
343757.7744.98167238261212.7183276173884
344732.2681.69546783229550.5045321677052
345702.6696.0632294090436.53677059095708
346683.3657.87891928895625.4210807110439
347709.5704.7400894482224.75991055177815
348702.2710.372544631912-8.17254463191148
349784.8841.119473579327-56.3194735793271
350810.9806.3898101225584.51018987744192
351755.6775.406805500505-19.806805500505
352656.8696.986623072271-40.1866230722708
353615.1627.941855173591-12.8418551735913
354745.3788.932087670052-43.6320876700522
355694.1732.481713641621-38.3817136416212
356675.7634.71114219700840.9888578029925
357643.7634.1310170955139.56898290448714
358622.1602.49283894603719.6071610539633
359634.6636.370804951981-1.77080495198106
360588631.757378193097-43.7573781930971
361689.7700.600403664838-10.9004036648379
362673.9707.896450127397-33.9964501273973
363647.9643.0945752976784.80542470232194
364568.8587.828381850703-19.0283818507035
365545.7542.356136174883.34386382511968
366632.6689.663175681589-57.063175681589
367643.8622.08585426279421.7141457372056
368593.1589.7359675594553.36403244054475
369579.7555.11500054470124.5849994552991
370546539.7776804193326.22231958066766
371562.9555.0752613476617.82473865233908
372572.5550.40322048949822.0967795105016


Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing
tForecast95% Lower Bound95% Upper Bound
373675.60500523734622.799731966261728.410278508418
374687.55702355531617.377763291092757.736283819527
375657.669963198287575.506598032933739.83332836364
376593.946199397138505.077273211728682.815125582548
377567.936068495899469.834611644941666.037525346857
378708.351039657566576.993485128054839.708594187078
379703.36061637895562.251209095454844.470023662447
380646.901164119778506.040242052541787.762086187015
381611.554367646235467.594832512676755.513902779794
382571.504842362338426.191861359819716.817823364856
383583.173504745255424.881836927376741.465172563134
384574.497670206446283.317387010523865.677953402368