Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 95.1 | 95.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 97 | 95.6172457653417 | -0.017913717674252 | 1.38275423465830 | 0.355983429664942 |
3 | 112.7 | 103.510061627232 | 0.534092319487827 | 9.18993837276807 | 2.67772412401643 |
4 | 102.9 | 105.425107617692 | 0.641816735585187 | -2.5251076176916 | 0.524277643898397 |
5 | 97.4 | 103.355196266626 | 0.460294618783866 | -5.95519626662574 | -1.24098426251121 |
6 | 111.4 | 105.245730983825 | 0.533280509231634 | 6.1542690161755 | 0.718438978345372 |
7 | 87.4 | 100.466672647718 | 0.329844159680205 | -13.0666726477184 | -2.75926564762998 |
8 | 96.8 | 97.67278452305 | 0.234102247883548 | -0.872784523050115 | -1.63863215627200 |
9 | 114.1 | 101.693354237365 | 0.336632235559500 | 12.4066457626347 | 1.98989980491086 |
10 | 110.3 | 105.775502195327 | 0.433882450243126 | 4.52449780467264 | 1.96626962392249 |
11 | 103.9 | 106.679544562154 | 0.446107526520085 | -2.7795445621543 | 0.246334626336542 |
12 | 101.6 | 105.460510391342 | 0.402164682467852 | -3.86051039134245 | -0.870790832135682 |
13 | 94.6 | 103.148133838992 | 0.405379607507195 | -8.54813383899242 | -1.47301299519722 |
14 | 95.9 | 101.754421894918 | 0.402709771371073 | -5.8544218949178 | -0.984415504282895 |
15 | 104.7 | 99.3632542567194 | 0.350462643531558 | 5.33674574328056 | -1.42367769403096 |
16 | 102.8 | 99.7468511491854 | 0.351534636626128 | 3.05314885081463 | 0.0159369830328408 |
17 | 98.1 | 100.877374905881 | 0.381386334477444 | -2.77737490588053 | 0.374405975970588 |
18 | 113.9 | 102.186725638773 | 0.417033085067379 | 11.7132743612268 | 0.458675404508563 |
19 | 80.9 | 100.201722691066 | 0.332036963937143 | -19.3017226910665 | -1.21903554616217 |
20 | 95.7 | 99.8695020254803 | 0.311129466062295 | -4.16950202548029 | -0.342395782714928 |
21 | 113.2 | 100.946612877836 | 0.332447355007716 | 12.2533871221636 | 0.397518723956748 |
22 | 105.9 | 101.350879410691 | 0.334217126603476 | 4.54912058930924 | 0.0373398207251376 |
23 | 108.8 | 103.913504392772 | 0.382480165687309 | 4.88649560722841 | 1.15844417296230 |
24 | 102.3 | 104.653514692740 | 0.38919806339569 | -2.35351469274042 | 0.185972813927420 |
25 | 99 | 105.233242031901 | 0.392389111935568 | -6.23324203190120 | 0.0993119002920132 |
26 | 100.7 | 105.443899678798 | 0.389169397687618 | -4.74389967879805 | -0.0942976122775373 |
27 | 115.5 | 107.197843601367 | 0.418458428560663 | 8.30215639863339 | 0.696945241968241 |
28 | 100.7 | 105.099550922506 | 0.353254968432263 | -4.39955092250612 | -1.2629212179917 |
29 | 109.9 | 106.784660019047 | 0.392172382749667 | 3.11533998095294 | 0.663873067526193 |
30 | 114.6 | 105.723634008228 | 0.347593952942233 | 8.87636599177186 | -0.728312784310215 |
31 | 85.4 | 105.223802918773 | 0.321815495199988 | -19.8238029187726 | -0.429238487890929 |
32 | 100.5 | 105.347361413383 | 0.316066024321495 | -4.84736141338333 | -0.101341346478198 |
33 | 114.8 | 104.992069304884 | 0.297929598235033 | 9.80793069511591 | -0.344952271055414 |
34 | 116.5 | 107.620783521147 | 0.356050097777632 | 8.87921647885314 | 1.19994015450840 |
35 | 112.9 | 108.796080263285 | 0.374985570808506 | 4.10391973671507 | 0.421988022066659 |
36 | 102 | 108.002379587682 | 0.349450759817781 | -6.00237958768213 | -0.602100114128637 |
37 | 106 | 109.154631424205 | 0.366654233734571 | -3.15463142420537 | 0.413329357891361 |
38 | 105.3 | 109.942599986325 | 0.375926629927034 | -4.64259998632514 | 0.216233565197655 |
39 | 118.8 | 110.009348100003 | 0.368692225198402 | 8.79065189999748 | -0.157728262228629 |
40 | 106.1 | 110.360999836184 | 0.368264442911986 | -4.26099983618425 | -0.0086377960010636 |
41 | 109.3 | 108.918062757243 | 0.320134614131354 | 0.381937242756751 | -0.915032123650648 |
42 | 117.2 | 108.248978493781 | 0.292993174014727 | 8.95102150621929 | -0.500264487858976 |
43 | 92.5 | 109.445912812150 | 0.317924742269318 | -16.9459128121498 | 0.458898932602473 |
44 | 104.2 | 109.998329024923 | 0.324280203971745 | -5.79832902492336 | 0.119539579511164 |
45 | 112.5 | 108.640179614686 | 0.280154718872115 | 3.8598203853136 | -0.860136310712448 |
46 | 122.4 | 109.900055770153 | 0.304859734857201 | 12.4999442298470 | 0.501577874270787 |
47 | 113.3 | 110.075576228061 | 0.301714853313248 | 3.22442377193928 | -0.0662506501165228 |
48 | 100 | 109.206026206749 | 0.273938130054238 | -9.2060262067488 | -0.599998337377564 |
49 | 110.7 | 110.448317590123 | 0.296725012273525 | 0.251682409877066 | 0.495801751623415 |
50 | 112.8 | 112.862498084998 | 0.347070434402659 | -0.0624980849981567 | 1.08249484577425 |
51 | 109.8 | 109.879975041913 | 0.265999384561075 | -0.0799750419126175 | -1.69792094268066 |
52 | 117.3 | 112.135650742638 | 0.315867321998037 | 5.16434925736186 | 1.01199085651005 |
53 | 109.1 | 111.812627735560 | 0.299438038773849 | -2.71262773556041 | -0.324450755077545 |
54 | 115.9 | 110.493936631922 | 0.257132316540835 | 5.40606336807807 | -0.821824416022757 |
55 | 96 | 110.841435145385 | 0.259506739129008 | -14.8414351453846 | 0.0459592510074398 |
56 | 99.8 | 109.232902735312 | 0.21071436643755 | -9.4329027353118 | -0.951746156028206 |
57 | 116.8 | 110.12269316056 | 0.228205676022696 | 6.67730683944004 | 0.346469066656222 |
58 | 115.7 | 108.344476696577 | 0.17742944163946 | 7.35552330342254 | -1.02451795269354 |
59 | 99.4 | 104.160922265628 | 0.0688897057410682 | -4.76092226562805 | -2.22758842502274 |
60 | 94.3 | 103.074919560155 | 0.0404780215439526 | -8.77491956015468 | -0.589954652290969 |