| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 462 | 462 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 455 | 460.646062194394 | -1.8205545052069 | -5.6460621943938 | -1.88009699361182 |
| 3 | 461 | 457.698526489489 | -2.46398202970895 | 3.30147351051124 | -0.300541729252562 |
| 4 | 461 | 458.038149306611 | -1.08217044784229 | 2.96185069338854 | 0.760951405976302 |
| 5 | 463 | 460.51887054342 | 0.80485904271331 | 2.48112945657975 | 1.00045279284430 |
| 6 | 462 | 462.186239454818 | 1.25791568112083 | -0.186239454817606 | 0.221881565374327 |
| 7 | 456 | 459.113566745741 | -0.956600442788405 | -3.113566745741 | -1.08772338491657 |
| 8 | 455 | 455.481012059443 | -2.32140545865447 | -0.481012059443217 | -0.678839082309205 |
| 9 | 456 | 454.16505406102 | -1.80579737885644 | 1.83494593898028 | 0.256269279788715 |
| 10 | 472 | 463.539520364408 | 3.94164033404217 | 8.46047963559172 | 2.84992772467317 |
| 11 | 472 | 471.637073865101 | 6.0785456872593 | 0.362926134898689 | 1.05939867949850 |
| 12 | 471 | 474.343424797212 | 4.34511588607999 | -3.34342479721242 | -0.859560870115967 |
| 13 | 465 | 470.766153545838 | 0.301071492224929 | -5.76615354583835 | -2.01658089000833 |
| 14 | 459 | 466.558795673856 | -2.0136840651849 | -7.55879567385617 | -1.16715765892350 |
| 15 | 465 | 463.695204304106 | -2.44725272428514 | 1.30479569589388 | -0.213843572045822 |
| 16 | 468 | 464.497281638015 | -0.834223886041891 | 3.50271836198460 | 0.79560261036034 |
| 17 | 467 | 464.101773392619 | -0.61665434494083 | 2.89822660738079 | 0.109751571825025 |
| 18 | 463 | 461.225336970294 | -1.75109274190509 | 1.77466302970630 | -0.568265461506125 |
| 19 | 460 | 460.116972466473 | -1.42936849750847 | -0.116972466472944 | 0.158858310157211 |
| 20 | 462 | 462.243383656732 | 0.336243651513575 | -0.243383656732173 | 0.871853394779848 |
| 21 | 461 | 464.997258044897 | 1.53463471638924 | -3.99725804489688 | 0.594217921302161 |
| 22 | 476 | 468.678990807056 | 2.60076589512296 | 7.32100919294421 | 0.529129019599888 |
| 23 | 476 | 472.60337658608 | 3.25852309892395 | 3.39662341392034 | 0.326427002763428 |
| 24 | 471 | 472.55604236225 | 1.61585319806942 | -1.55604236224991 | -0.815926387932145 |
| 25 | 453 | 463.628592620051 | -3.62874854372475 | -10.6285926200509 | -2.60872157477873 |
| 26 | 443 | 453.321331507414 | -6.95540308874441 | -10.3213315074138 | -1.65197748224769 |
| 27 | 442 | 443.122170478797 | -8.56488737997111 | -1.12217047879715 | -0.795516256087589 |
| 28 | 444 | 437.184225183589 | -7.27113621926453 | 6.81577481641122 | 0.640253122798788 |
| 29 | 438 | 432.254846723312 | -6.11951394534428 | 5.74515327668796 | 0.573898753201987 |
| 30 | 427 | 426.095239336167 | -6.13932302811533 | 0.90476066383294 | -0.00988371827844293 |
| 31 | 424 | 423.586786365758 | -4.34214957331981 | 0.413213634241509 | 0.891808473602591 |
| 32 | 416 | 419.342418395631 | -4.29391262760153 | -3.34241839563133 | 0.0238493873240153 |
| 33 | 406 | 413.562856158462 | -5.02407688832217 | -7.56285615846179 | -0.361329735448834 |
| 34 | 431 | 417.720852566978 | -0.516779361089381 | 13.2791474330220 | 2.23570451393841 |
| 35 | 434 | 424.451240095645 | 3.04301899915843 | 9.54875990435546 | 1.76865048079695 |
| 36 | 418 | 420.058123373997 | -0.614830305087467 | -2.05812337399695 | -1.81849994368634 |
| 37 | 412 | 417.898644517389 | -1.37569205497466 | -5.89864451738943 | -0.377953358643656 |
| 38 | 404 | 414.327836738978 | -2.45664512352714 | -10.3278367389777 | -0.535701299659597 |
| 39 | 409 | 411.462572617259 | -2.65725230759588 | -2.46257261725884 | -0.099239103774605 |
| 40 | 412 | 407.187632715771 | -3.44854032474732 | 4.81236728422908 | -0.392024162503858 |
| 41 | 406 | 401.504105993392 | -4.54109766141268 | 4.49589400660847 | -0.543213720409086 |
| 42 | 398 | 397.378018517602 | -4.33772425767209 | 0.621981482398046 | 0.101239213113608 |
| 43 | 397 | 394.929060723711 | -3.4105759720909 | 2.07093927628929 | 0.46037296599645 |
| 44 | 385 | 390.592273491547 | -3.86455274448964 | -5.59227349154697 | -0.224747195555188 |
| 45 | 390 | 396.472804349163 | 0.897024483350892 | -6.472804349163 | 2.35628153175414 |
| 46 | 413 | 401.6170880799 | 2.96813169063773 | 11.3829119201002 | 1.02682414250941 |
| 47 | 413 | 402.173489446569 | 1.79185084019024 | 10.8265105534313 | -0.58440508276701 |
| 48 | 401 | 402.542026441394 | 1.09655136965589 | -1.54202644139356 | -0.345655368645654 |
| 49 | 397 | 402.438408400577 | 0.509537602754697 | -5.43840840057749 | -0.291453933195374 |
| 50 | 397 | 405.023113916345 | 1.52390113926468 | -8.02311391634487 | 0.502570517538001 |
| 51 | 409 | 408.798106522528 | 2.62158759127333 | 0.201893477471550 | 0.543311934737619 |
| 52 | 419 | 412.344182137642 | 3.07132063104807 | 6.65581786235769 | 0.222886485032896 |
| 53 | 424 | 417.739653232524 | 4.20159919202622 | 6.26034676747603 | 0.56148364593677 |
| 54 | 428 | 425.704168683342 | 6.0345451965337 | 2.29583131665758 | 0.911356616111277 |
| 55 | 430 | 430.711136971379 | 5.53335850397997 | -0.711136971378974 | -0.248819626196394 |
| 56 | 424 | 435.545224597256 | 5.19257503695732 | -11.5452245972563 | -0.168814523671046 |
| 57 | 433 | 440.897878509631 | 5.27040682539327 | -7.89787850963066 | 0.0385307652333583 |
| 58 | 456 | 444.283829541669 | 4.35584110691099 | 11.7161704583307 | -0.453358404700734 |
| 59 | 459 | 447.422724835739 | 3.76525120628003 | 11.5772751642615 | -0.293295964734837 |
| 60 | 446 | 448.615892881323 | 2.51538326538021 | -2.61589288132271 | -0.621076433301036 |
| 61 | 441 | 448.762288121156 | 1.36302900914963 | -7.76228812115596 | -0.571992137434703 |
