Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 15.7 | 15.5388000172094 | 0.161199982665824 | 0.161199982790641 | 0.350857033317212 |
3 | 13.2 | 13.0494024062639 | 0.150597593736148 | 0.150597593736147 | -0.528088359938187 |
4 | 20.3 | 20.1218254156455 | 0.178174584354548 | 0.178174584354548 | 1.37904992795009 |
5 | 12.8 | 12.6521739284379 | 0.147826071562064 | 0.147826071562065 | -1.523680578377 |
6 | 8 | 7.87165355649838 | 0.128346443501617 | 0.128346443501617 | -0.981869492247665 |
7 | 0.9 | 0.800000010033982 | 0.0999999899660182 | 0.0999999899660182 | -1.43443762055836 |
8 | 3.6 | 3.48984376110314 | 0.110156238896860 | 0.110156238896860 | 0.515963994676113 |
9 | 14.1 | 13.9494163578671 | 0.150583642132930 | 0.150583642132930 | 2.06185621936768 |
10 | 21.7 | 21.5205426541802 | 0.179457345819803 | 0.179457345819804 | 1.47834193439937 |
11 | 24.5 | 24.3104247299659 | 0.189575270034137 | 0.189575270034137 | 0.520052445858691 |
12 | 18.9 | 18.7326923247656 | 0.167307675234378 | 0.167307675234379 | -1.14896249341729 |
13 | 13.9 | 16.7438318210767 | 0.258530165512457 | -2.84383182107675 | -0.518984489036904 |
14 | 11 | 10.8894545510070 | 0.110545449151180 | 0.110545448993041 | -1.03612776069955 |
15 | 5.8 | 5.69909256345542 | 0.100907436544588 | 0.100907436544583 | -1.05497122625881 |
16 | 15.5 | 15.3817029039673 | 0.118297096032653 | 0.118297096032654 | 1.90691958560445 |
17 | 22.4 | 22.2694394274158 | 0.130560572584176 | 0.130560572584175 | 1.34722977476748 |
18 | 31.7 | 31.5528880936131 | 0.14711190638694 | 0.147111906386940 | 1.82157227872193 |
19 | 30.3 | 30.1556756824816 | 0.144324317518361 | 0.144324317518361 | -0.307344933590962 |
20 | 31.4 | 31.2539568414196 | 0.146043158580386 | 0.146043158580387 | 0.189852172126791 |
21 | 20.2 | 20.0743267562174 | 0.125673243782572 | 0.125673243782573 | -2.25398057334009 |
22 | 19.7 | 19.5754480343713 | 0.124551965628695 | 0.124551965628696 | -0.124295103572135 |
23 | 10.8 | 10.6915921336151 | 0.108407866384933 | 0.108407866384932 | -1.79280388555995 |
24 | 13.2 | 13.0875000050261 | 0.112499994973909 | 0.112499994973909 | 0.455244966257191 |
25 | 15.1 | 15.7800293435282 | 0.0618208497087116 | -0.680029343528169 | 0.565718166449607 |
26 | 15.6 | 15.5428235340195 | 0.0571764692466907 | 0.0571764659804609 | -0.054045981757339 |
27 | 15.5 | 15.4430082269432 | 0.0569917730567833 | 0.0569917730567751 | -0.0312340398359728 |
28 | 12.7 | 12.6463615035396 | 0.0536384964603723 | 0.0536384964603725 | -0.567740546716113 |
29 | 10.9 | 10.8485345849268 | 0.0514654150731668 | 0.051465415073167 | -0.368354738784763 |
30 | 10 | 9.9496487130036 | 0.050351286996402 | 0.0503512869964015 | -0.189075181564763 |
31 | 9.1 | 9.05076023493292 | 0.0492397650670825 | 0.0492397650670823 | -0.188853911536807 |
32 | 10.3 | 10.2494158889170 | 0.050584111083046 | 0.0505841110830458 | 0.228679355966904 |
33 | 16.9 | 16.8417736303037 | 0.0582263696963244 | 0.0582263696963248 | 1.30150241898810 |
34 | 22 | 21.935897437492 | 0.06410256250802 | 0.064102562508022 | 1.00190385743441 |
35 | 27.6 | 27.529452853999 | 0.0705471460010164 | 0.0705471460010158 | 1.10009714255546 |
36 | 28.9 | 28.8280232577131 | 0.0719767422869004 | 0.0719767422869013 | 0.244317837053741 |
37 | 31 | 31.4350662484538 | 0.0395514774250695 | -0.435066248453753 | 0.538357204773166 |
38 | 32.9 | 32.8447826128305 | 0.0552173904643761 | 0.0552173871694852 | 0.254502312470622 |
39 | 38.1 | 38.0403127728093 | 0.059687227190695 | 0.0596872271906882 | 1.0225256850404 |
40 | 28.8 | 28.7484375010357 | 0.0515624989643184 | 0.0515624989643184 | -1.86023879639953 |
41 | 29 | 28.9483087607962 | 0.0516912392037955 | 0.0516912392037958 | 0.0295019796708099 |
42 | 21.8 | 21.7545927218006 | 0.0454072781993544 | 0.0454072781993544 | -1.44127546266518 |
43 | 28.8 | 28.7485714296 | 0.0514285704000099 | 0.0514285704000099 | 1.38222757636810 |
44 | 25.6 | 25.5513840839797 | 0.0486159160203018 | 0.0486159160203027 | -0.646222733211577 |
45 | 28.2 | 28.1491789119834 | 0.0508210880166122 | 0.0508210880166124 | 0.50708880032877 |
46 | 20.2 | 20.1561312615710 | 0.0438687384290457 | 0.0438687384290453 | -1.60010511850022 |
47 | 17.9 | 17.8581535813821 | 0.0418464186178581 | 0.0418464186178573 | -0.465845374386297 |
48 | 16.3 | 16.2595689661792 | 0.0404310338208382 | 0.0404310338208391 | -0.326318121710195 |
49 | 13.2 | 13.8955503372644 | 0.0632318489836485 | -0.695550337264435 | -0.502408754575954 |
50 | 8.1 | 8.08986207011151 | 0.0101379309664062 | 0.0101379298884898 | -1.10676632260415 |
51 | 4.5 | 4.49235010315646 | 0.00764989684354816 | 0.00764989684354386 | -0.717579510365082 |
52 | -0.1 | -0.104476584338242 | 0.00447658433824165 | 0.00447658433824158 | -0.915853079148763 |
53 | 0 | -0.00454232653561212 | 0.00454232653561205 | 0.00454232653561213 | 0.0189869970746658 |
54 | 2.3 | 2.2938789543418 | 0.00612104565820012 | 0.00612104565820049 | 0.456263609829756 |
55 | 2.8 | 2.79353951864458 | 0.00646048135542261 | 0.0064604813554227 | 0.0981673722089443 |
56 | 2.9 | 2.89347527447162 | 0.0065247255283812 | 0.00652472552838229 | 0.0185926750492944 |
57 | 0.1 | 0.095401509640507 | 0.00459849035949329 | 0.00459849035949344 | -0.557847798479695 |
58 | 3.5 | 3.49307270209076 | 0.00692729790923975 | 0.00692729790924046 | 0.674897921263584 |
59 | 8.6 | 8.58958190527854 | 0.0104180947214615 | 0.010418094721461 | 1.01234124394800 |
60 | 13.8 | 13.7860273972310 | 0.0139726027690134 | 0.0139726027690143 | 1.03152445348237 |