| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 96.21064363 | 97.5373664216195 | -0.143860738292253 | -0.681713868392448 | -0.310174879296508 |
| 3 | 96.31280765 | 96.6760509472387 | -0.182276624682697 | -0.144890115938404 | -0.104994466129451 |
| 4 | 107.1793443 | 102.125001317525 | 0.00431775095857434 | 2.95980937768869 | 0.941466825970646 |
| 5 | 114.9066592 | 109.326575464091 | 0.156170054727744 | 2.75277519839507 | 1.24356833811129 |
| 6 | 92.56060184 | 101.430566752015 | 0.0252577203837679 | -5.66563470086604 | -1.40104564217902 |
| 7 | 114.9995356 | 107.562350334838 | 0.114662006986720 | 4.9995967082029 | 1.06408405220087 |
| 8 | 107.1236185 | 108.007538646737 | 0.119328933509450 | -1.0159502009055 | 0.0576107766798939 |
| 9 | 117.7765394 | 113.096456050171 | 0.188359028989258 | 2.69464567648684 | 0.866223746173037 |
| 10 | 107.3650971 | 110.673947380498 | 0.152550876628292 | -2.26567070631723 | -0.455090770842998 |
| 11 | 106.2970187 | 108.113252137745 | 0.115808853761867 | -0.732036952416045 | -0.472946361965449 |
| 12 | 114.5072908 | 111.118466637522 | 0.154429596875019 | 2.23410031605172 | 0.503668723013701 |
| 13 | 98.0031578 | 106.472888785763 | 0.414337131190102 | -6.45891247343987 | -0.982996154118947 |
| 14 | 103.0649206 | 104.793290573314 | 0.384711891470705 | -1.00189560057220 | -0.341894201405566 |
| 15 | 100.2879168 | 103.265417850362 | 0.332871414993055 | -2.35600891534035 | -0.303056727939821 |
| 16 | 104.6066685 | 103.158761780015 | 0.322987967264927 | 1.60098536129036 | -0.0736046776521629 |
| 17 | 111.1544534 | 104.520224576655 | 0.339372330782016 | 6.25675763957954 | 0.179007298202614 |
| 18 | 104.9874617 | 108.518329757763 | 0.381587089940069 | -4.88095255380001 | 0.636389304796465 |
| 19 | 109.9284852 | 107.483906879900 | 0.367956484128434 | 2.96942262879167 | -0.246870615250935 |
| 20 | 111.5352466 | 110.592102739825 | 0.392634153969483 | -0.07361318227802 | 0.477967006690232 |
| 21 | 132.4974459 | 119.837232149212 | 0.471586343333092 | 9.37517163551574 | 1.54419184670030 |
| 22 | 100.3436426 | 112.470961452559 | 0.402403526426611 | -9.21849160530255 | -1.36727296540452 |
| 23 | 123.0983561 | 117.509007141891 | 0.438267830724493 | 3.86752661261286 | 0.808537090003388 |
| 24 | 114.2379493 | 114.727062266186 | 0.429886069330814 | 0.711360168868876 | -0.562282210151758 |
| 25 | 104.569518 | 112.551668836231 | 0.470105710817692 | -6.98151023549014 | -0.477190049090728 |
| 26 | 109.0833101 | 110.915173169624 | 0.457697890339571 | -1.07565709961084 | -0.359892618309900 |
| 27 | 106.9843039 | 109.983190909314 | 0.434290852352844 | -2.52689959933962 | -0.229175799060881 |
| 28 | 133.6769759 | 120.861246994074 | 0.614237464854623 | 9.1986348531375 | 1.75790143069973 |
| 29 | 124.8537197 | 121.645608577595 | 0.61659383412269 | 3.14749309771558 | 0.0292558078729798 |
| 30 | 122.5132349 | 124.569337586340 | 0.641096411599984 | -2.89062720104175 | 0.40073672140986 |
| 31 | 116.8013374 | 120.873236868002 | 0.603558851863338 | -2.49373761979692 | -0.756001444435605 |
| 32 | 116.0118882 | 119.742012937850 | 0.590103457234771 | -3.09761354982556 | -0.302711668609346 |
| 33 | 129.7575926 | 118.837636137810 | 0.579110776684702 | 11.4652107637988 | -0.260852507739305 |
| 34 | 125.1973623 | 126.918193294708 | 0.629649392723849 | -4.45893862682025 | 1.30918637823193 |
| 35 | 143.7912139 | 133.447811965066 | 0.658628731854828 | 8.18777016889364 | 1.02927781592778 |
| 36 | 127.9465032 | 131.082578853865 | 0.656420039702151 | -2.02734274814574 | -0.528788945849175 |
| 37 | 130.2962757 | 133.956547300811 | 0.645690061002581 | -4.48348273528640 | 0.393540209390653 |
| 38 | 108.4424631 | 123.360960113657 | 0.598266384917787 | -10.8729771123176 | -1.93772917178489 |
| 39 | 129.3675118 | 128.617960295039 | 0.652702167793489 | -0.870336582269216 | 0.78432292370667 |
| 40 | 143.6797622 | 132.214235107705 | 0.692565429371402 | 10.4393604201909 | 0.49877130129205 |
| 41 | 131.8844618 | 131.334246791444 | 0.673483320587388 | 1.10783648963995 | -0.270291521121996 |
| 42 | 117.6186496 | 125.467601075613 | 0.608359721831748 | -5.49990446070787 | -1.13463224923134 |
| 43 | 118.9560695 | 122.834285159525 | 0.581681911463347 | -2.70625237973415 | -0.564789576711221 |
| 44 | 104.8202842 | 115.881280415165 | 0.527876482405619 | -8.32920641147409 | -1.31489170196049 |
| 45 | 134.624315 | 120.405721171360 | 0.55330266576413 | 12.7678528642587 | 0.697746654075396 |
| 46 | 140.401226 | 133.503394351087 | 0.620345664161638 | 2.34143232472684 | 2.18952252820420 |
| 47 | 143.8005015 | 135.631304691255 | 0.625666354365005 | 7.62116717600659 | 0.263049380675878 |
| 48 | 153.4317823 | 145.509494285397 | 0.633616176319047 | 4.55045585367862 | 1.61736831017654 |
| 49 | 153.2924677 | 150.935197354566 | 0.629860458357961 | 0.604827815954346 | 0.840666907504257 |
| 50 | 127.3149438 | 147.016532344007 | 0.612005981142804 | -18.0664934715461 | -0.785919297864018 |
| 51 | 153.5525216 | 150.957897458098 | 0.641620206288358 | 1.42289157287978 | 0.566753374934996 |
| 52 | 136.9276493 | 139.300227795195 | 0.506927433297731 | 1.94534276917646 | -2.09631850488088 |
| 53 | 131.7730101 | 132.741924800545 | 0.432088942104753 | 1.53592589784868 | -1.21531374933431 |
| 54 | 144.3391845 | 139.169482868079 | 0.48735961171528 | 3.02255579781256 | 1.03945457243554 |
| 55 | 107.4208229 | 125.187595445665 | 0.374528298462071 | -12.5518191970416 | -2.51970021396263 |
| 56 | 113.6249652 | 123.793713769037 | 0.362771627241023 | -9.52929085096324 | -0.308552980171308 |
| 57 | 124.2221603 | 120.500314042097 | 0.342135327213839 | 5.04593022686359 | -0.638265185866724 |
| 58 | 102.0618557 | 111.408680827611 | 0.299890062570385 | -5.92800102403571 | -1.64646165455361 |
| 59 | 96.36853348 | 101.872386612429 | 0.271006811103152 | -1.93685180440652 | -1.71630925625182 |
| 60 | 111.6838488 | 103.916254118627 | 0.273360173772435 | 7.12383290362036 | 0.309605310926179 |
