| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.774271526347364 |
| beta | 0.47045948557527 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 277128 | 271656.566784364 | 5471.43321563635 |
| 14 | 277103 | 277923.353326693 | -820.353326693468 |
| 15 | 275037 | 277134.891202723 | -2097.89120272303 |
| 16 | 270150 | 271770.266416459 | -1620.26641645859 |
| 17 | 267140 | 268095.9041569 | -955.904156899953 |
| 18 | 264993 | 265466.910074723 | -473.91007472307 |
| 19 | 287259 | 285740.037524629 | 1518.96247537120 |
| 20 | 291186 | 295483.386907983 | -4297.38690798311 |
| 21 | 292300 | 292056.55094069 | 243.449059309671 |
| 22 | 288186 | 287279.12398743 | 906.876012569817 |
| 23 | 281477 | 280451.226052562 | 1025.7739474384 |
| 24 | 282656 | 281852.952712312 | 803.047287687892 |
| 25 | 280190 | 282686.172673556 | -2496.17267355567 |
| 26 | 280408 | 278326.702617810 | 2081.2973821896 |
| 27 | 276836 | 277532.439579615 | -696.439579614729 |
| 28 | 275216 | 271925.749422994 | 3290.25057700631 |
| 29 | 274352 | 272537.722475837 | 1814.27752416331 |
| 30 | 271311 | 273483.954268952 | -2172.95426895155 |
| 31 | 289802 | 294242.636836078 | -4440.63683607848 |
| 32 | 290726 | 296746.977787819 | -6020.97778781911 |
| 33 | 292300 | 290995.34757366 | 1304.65242633992 |
| 34 | 278506 | 285584.975077722 | -7078.9750777217 |
| 35 | 269826 | 268408.031859756 | 1417.96814024361 |
| 36 | 265861 | 265790.572261246 | 70.4277387540205 |
| 37 | 269034 | 260865.251566365 | 8168.74843363508 |
| 38 | 264176 | 265219.533678201 | -1043.53367820091 |
| 39 | 255198 | 259834.577104133 | -4636.57710413262 |
| 40 | 253353 | 249267.277540313 | 4085.72245968712 |
| 41 | 246057 | 247658.323704354 | -1601.32370435420 |
| 42 | 235372 | 241401.702479233 | -6029.70247923251 |
| 43 | 258556 | 250209.511560126 | 8346.48843987385 |
| 44 | 260993 | 260378.884339502 | 614.115660498297 |
| 45 | 254663 | 262334.273505466 | -7671.27350546647 |
| 46 | 250643 | 246837.996479436 | 3805.00352056391 |
| 47 | 243422 | 242472.344186224 | 949.655813776451 |
| 48 | 247105 | 240942.996596005 | 6162.00340399522 |
| 49 | 248541 | 246440.415642245 | 2100.58435775532 |
| 50 | 245039 | 245986.108802317 | -947.108802317263 |
| 51 | 237080 | 241878.829461217 | -4798.82946121661 |
| 52 | 237085 | 234936.06507147 | 2148.93492852995 |
| 53 | 225554 | 231774.476563358 | -6220.47656335827 |
| 54 | 226839 | 220486.03179105 | 6352.96820895016 |
| 55 | 247934 | 245272.257136005 | 2661.7428639952 |
| 56 | 248333 | 251169.430097851 | -2836.43009785138 |
| 57 | 246969 | 249274.375787889 | -2305.37578788903 |
| 58 | 245098 | 243271.276739674 | 1826.72326032553 |
| 59 | 246263 | 238763.986213741 | 7499.01378625949 |
| 60 | 255765 | 247771.786291064 | 7993.21370893568 |
| 61 | 264319 | 258721.493000952 | 5597.50699904829 |
| 62 | 268347 | 266221.44567568 | 2125.55432431976 |
| 63 | 273046 | 270291.539871941 | 2754.46012805897 |
| 64 | 273963 | 280557.78056514 | -6594.78056514019 |
| 65 | 267430 | 274184.372981959 | -6754.37298195949 |
| 66 | 271993 | 271364.589780328 | 628.410219671612 |
| 67 | 292710 | 299254.417889571 | -6544.41788957099 |
| 68 | 295881 | 298324.452470466 | -2443.45247046568 |
| 69 | 293299 | 298336.605570453 | -5037.60557045252 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 70 | 291081.242127761 | 282833.696848460 | 299328.787407061 |
| 71 | 285292.451730862 | 272910.349876904 | 297674.55358482 |
| 72 | 285629.294688158 | 268107.167052264 | 303151.422324052 |
| 73 | 283703.519280115 | 260471.877608561 | 306935.160951669 |
| 74 | 277810.341363102 | 248699.530792691 | 306921.151933513 |
| 75 | 271645.291247677 | 236375.175858218 | 306915.406637136 |
| 76 | 268187.025748769 | 226110.105842672 | 310263.945654867 |
| 77 | 260118.851790614 | 211737.200924964 | 308500.502656264 |
| 78 | 259728.088908926 | 203381.90355576 | 316074.274262092 |
| 79 | 279453.522681236 | 209743.5277159 | 349163.517646572 |
| 80 | 281647.383603430 | 201741.899681553 | 361552.867525306 |
| 81 | 281099.191474865 | 191654.465752469 | 370543.917197262 |
