| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 114 | 114 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 116 | 115.702643740845 | 1.66896046888063 | 0.297356259155059 | 0.294876726859141 |
| 3 | 153 | 146.494977853246 | 23.6504664783382 | 6.50502214675349 | 3.77191065445581 |
| 4 | 162 | 164.657147603009 | 19.3405364523551 | -2.6571476030092 | -0.69617385229692 |
| 5 | 161 | 164.271417160031 | 4.13027010648658 | -3.27141716003076 | -2.4403014219544 |
| 6 | 149 | 151.006279203135 | -9.3017669835315 | -2.00627920313463 | -2.16432047714572 |
| 7 | 139 | 138.323670309618 | -11.9161278671201 | 0.676329690382264 | -0.420844255351675 |
| 8 | 135 | 133.119291410535 | -6.72588941002604 | 1.88070858946505 | 0.835509735540786 |
| 9 | 130 | 129.442698120416 | -4.36822244709808 | 0.557301879584154 | 0.379530882275775 |
| 10 | 127 | 126.544976299828 | -3.23133584288738 | 0.455023700171893 | 0.183011992933156 |
| 11 | 122 | 122.008616712248 | -4.24029804266581 | -0.0086167122483617 | -0.162419293972219 |
| 12 | 117 | 116.782540539251 | -5.00245215283087 | 0.217459460748732 | -0.122688952034130 |
| 13 | 112 | 112.417809433571 | -4.51082158791396 | -0.417809433571176 | 0.0797002276452974 |
| 14 | 113 | 118.483516781324 | 3.61573463897883 | -5.48351678132422 | 1.32125872853874 |
| 15 | 149 | 139.917740853605 | 16.7862873934667 | 9.08225914639485 | 2.12504634107215 |
| 16 | 157 | 157.03439705099 | 17.0329433309658 | -0.0343970509900763 | 0.0401053876743118 |
| 17 | 157 | 159.556040949644 | 6.22144182377092 | -2.55604094964360 | -1.73463267004782 |
| 18 | 147 | 150.467136773757 | -5.139067873983 | -3.46713677375708 | -1.82834303326795 |
| 19 | 137 | 138.280202614551 | -10.3766718097926 | -1.28020261455135 | -0.843443575154147 |
| 20 | 132 | 129.811872949628 | -8.95761686001301 | 2.18812705037248 | 0.228425326005112 |
| 21 | 125 | 124.153732206407 | -6.50408593852914 | 0.846267793592729 | 0.394959976351661 |
| 22 | 123 | 121.586522854044 | -3.57671561258589 | 1.41347714595607 | 0.471252261252070 |
| 23 | 117 | 116.666836395995 | -4.57508436362275 | 0.333163604005065 | -0.160713623635738 |
| 24 | 114 | 112.455631237544 | -4.30482307310549 | 1.54436876245557 | 0.0435266137913398 |
| 25 | 111 | 112.398667599700 | -1.14896725404076 | -1.39866759970020 | 0.509762418788215 |
| 26 | 112 | 120.975831256661 | 6.07006972133675 | -8.9758312566607 | 1.16243049710649 |
| 27 | 144 | 135.128615923444 | 11.9974007739406 | 8.87138407655556 | 0.954012623437767 |
| 28 | 150 | 147.558492496076 | 12.315338916866 | 2.44150750392430 | 0.0514565998105306 |
| 29 | 149 | 150.041880899574 | 5.07198310554524 | -1.04188089957386 | -1.16503410900246 |
| 30 | 134 | 138.676504476299 | -6.99633976396462 | -4.67650447629897 | -1.94055268562018 |
| 31 | 123 | 125.333643000286 | -11.6566246577464 | -2.33364300028565 | -0.750425480833146 |
| 32 | 116 | 114.236926366921 | -11.2451011132596 | 1.76307363307930 | 0.0662493528025322 |
| 33 | 117 | 114.576090563726 | -2.72901846128121 | 2.4239094362744 | 1.37086005291596 |
| 34 | 111 | 109.638847384399 | -4.35222547896544 | 1.36115261560106 | -0.261311896628606 |
| 35 | 105 | 104.071272001815 | -5.24513825011138 | 0.928727998185038 | -0.143739878147149 |
| 36 | 102 | 100.340981746844 | -4.13290623937157 | 1.65901825315618 | 0.179184125883452 |
| 37 | 95 | 98.3374693017223 | -2.56826323028658 | -3.33746930172227 | 0.252346669507806 |
| 38 | 93 | 103.360733953500 | 3.00199029217631 | -10.3607339535002 | 0.896112984635853 |
| 39 | 124 | 114.989223032686 | 9.29529211996098 | 9.01077696731369 | 1.01286248787740 |
| 40 | 130 | 125.747309184084 | 10.3634582639752 | 4.25269081591565 | 0.172462513077168 |
| 41 | 124 | 123.471544186286 | 1.11387671322238 | 0.528455813714395 | -1.48917829627881 |
| 42 | 115 | 118.488865605073 | -3.33897121051313 | -3.48886560507335 | -0.716038457862916 |
| 43 | 106 | 109.459149885785 | -7.49292439364667 | -3.45914988578483 | -0.668697041568339 |
| 44 | 105 | 105.487422199554 | -4.92067445616287 | -0.487422199554088 | 0.414114902367592 |
| 45 | 105 | 101.738001347294 | -4.06476174723596 | 3.26199865270597 | 0.137779693616591 |
| 46 | 101 | 98.6953085037839 | -3.31794982324852 | 2.30469149621614 | 0.120221876332748 |
| 47 | 95 | 94.026392137282 | -4.30458588813939 | 0.973607862717959 | -0.158838137405740 |
| 48 | 93 | 90.8887679874983 | -3.45253923105605 | 2.11123201250169 | 0.137265939991958 |
| 49 | 84 | 89.0008258798454 | -2.30945510230920 | -5.00082587984536 | 0.184197483755488 |
| 50 | 87 | 98.0495670253244 | 5.97745504760098 | -11.0495670253244 | 1.33313803269666 |
| 51 | 116 | 107.665841184860 | 8.62345687361788 | 8.33415881513967 | 0.425883314652667 |
| 52 | 120 | 113.447640074266 | 6.55611048482496 | 6.55235992573387 | -0.333400597719954 |
| 53 | 117 | 115.688111400241 | 3.41104437742443 | 1.31188859975868 | -0.50649753193152 |
| 54 | 109 | 112.283608379213 | -1.55095811849093 | -3.28360837921311 | -0.798135745454033 |
| 55 | 105 | 109.550869706606 | -2.41067338075168 | -4.55086970660589 | -0.138366145542324 |
| 56 | 107 | 107.751506809735 | -1.96576160857763 | -0.751506809735046 | 0.0716254325462566 |
| 57 | 109 | 105.873779996985 | -1.90166524972071 | 3.12622000301535 | 0.0103180083492711 |
| 58 | 109 | 105.538888642367 | -0.76101914592312 | 3.46111135763341 | 0.183618737321425 |
| 59 | 108 | 106.273776002188 | 0.327642145007529 | 1.72622399781244 | 0.17527493814258 |
| 60 | 107 | 105.196236799355 | -0.695010965770706 | 1.80376320064542 | -0.164730001410012 |
