Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 1.9 | 1.99950470232471 | -0.096405474594391 | -0.0655584220717967 | -0.521277101224626 |
3 | 0 | 0.190832835847516 | -0.312752837852856 | -0.0731287351603493 | -1.15402486939756 |
4 | 0.6 | 0.624003640152058 | -0.187613814287069 | -0.0726214437082485 | 0.487860232628526 |
5 | 0.2 | 0.282341005224292 | -0.217751252623302 | -0.0726727838671348 | -0.0987391074671906 |
6 | 0.9 | 0.920061038393389 | -0.0354531864660894 | -0.0724627359440242 | 0.541297889146355 |
7 | 2.4 | 2.38183009489695 | 0.299377439675790 | -0.0721807026161355 | 0.939878724593047 |
8 | 4.7 | 4.65391331681591 | 0.752817337561874 | -0.0718964089071714 | 1.23249450630959 |
9 | 9.4 | 9.2432280377279 | 1.64857691774188 | -0.0714751974330515 | 2.39024652444412 |
10 | 12.5 | 12.4773047098426 | 2.02209155310815 | -0.0713429389977899 | 0.98620025482177 |
11 | 15.8 | 15.7945783107959 | 2.32877728922736 | -0.0712609801950146 | 0.80485584531452 |
12 | 18.2 | 18.2629952511963 | 2.36193937902011 | -0.0712542830956155 | 0.0867276208980423 |
13 | 16.8 | 17.5556052553413 | 1.66223837534188 | -0.581443129171793 | -2.2231483777695 |
14 | 17.3 | 17.3664364768229 | 1.23867391052512 | 0.00980097712801869 | -0.961823882980048 |
15 | 19.3 | 19.2516378017405 | 1.39259516432222 | 0.0101532967291694 | 0.4014731759223 |
16 | 17.9 | 18.0412349132795 | 0.771912673150367 | 0.0123316868001963 | -1.61384448220388 |
17 | 20.2 | 20.1119730717504 | 1.08155573371777 | 0.0113895142496871 | 0.805372771542662 |
18 | 18.7 | 18.8269711097752 | 0.517430047009882 | 0.0127051224197373 | -1.46777307058046 |
19 | 20.1 | 20.0461638973045 | 0.684705784313105 | 0.0124094389713853 | 0.435315567603311 |
20 | 18.2 | 18.3286520294139 | 0.112098907982857 | 0.0131757604176496 | -1.49031665780677 |
21 | 18.4 | 18.3898192565527 | 0.099958276075224 | 0.0131880602802557 | -0.0316003855533143 |
22 | 18.2 | 18.2036552183526 | 0.0317532453592252 | 0.0132403684392757 | -0.177535075757684 |
23 | 18.9 | 18.8505204132758 | 0.178385686165054 | 0.0131552402825784 | 0.381687008291549 |
24 | 19.9 | 19.8390842188302 | 0.371523089884806 | 0.0130703617911544 | 0.502746640559894 |
25 | 21.3 | 21.1804050671948 | 0.598864810439514 | 0.063483205196624 | 0.652737531871778 |
26 | 20 | 20.1102101228244 | 0.211804411274508 | -0.0309852413102971 | -0.930137403631389 |
27 | 19.5 | 19.5753345306315 | 0.0338637291419047 | -0.0312242498911083 | -0.463518496215072 |
28 | 19.6 | 19.6300081865738 | 0.0388272294697034 | -0.0312361803806937 | 0.0129052577683213 |
29 | 20.9 | 20.8614386615513 | 0.323204407759945 | -0.0318253085862057 | 0.739681298319622 |
30 | 21 | 21.0402919821943 | 0.288789391616408 | -0.0317706918445207 | -0.0895448210253374 |
31 | 19.9 | 20.0093120443539 | -0.0258365401856819 | -0.0313922553916121 | -0.818787584294202 |
32 | 19.6 | 19.6509542831304 | -0.105105869364801 | -0.0313200680875866 | -0.206314773930425 |
33 | 20.9 | 20.8542717507913 | 0.206807187317848 | -0.031535095033203 | 0.811869915781978 |
34 | 21.7 | 21.6942242777188 | 0.35774310225708 | -0.0316138622652395 | 0.392881325796056 |
35 | 22.9 | 22.8826362248141 | 0.555769244644719 | -0.0316920908441098 | 0.515466485840842 |
36 | 21.5 | 21.6378971158385 | 0.126534101670960 | -0.0315637318933684 | -1.11732212761886 |
37 | 21.3 | 21.0874129409769 | -0.0331103406738462 | 0.252036433976438 | -0.444018014837077 |
38 | 23.5 | 23.3795235951528 | 0.510000451871905 | 0.00313382851427909 | 1.33553387882659 |
39 | 21.6 | 21.7252271262780 | -0.00582839034987048 | 0.00262167601830755 | -1.34344172557241 |
40 | 24.5 | 24.3436076658907 | 0.620017277283239 | 0.00150291520925171 | 1.62770716651404 |
41 | 22.2 | 22.3517192044945 | -0.00276720728534585 | 0.00246220560321459 | -1.62022187255569 |
42 | 23.5 | 23.4337944732944 | 0.255871861970379 | 0.00215703386357182 | 0.67303407615885 |
43 | 20.9 | 21.0529672724647 | -0.372713902291274 | 0.00271914752275455 | -1.63595069442787 |
44 | 20.7 | 20.6963338861552 | -0.368880397866378 | 0.00271655210881503 | 0.00997786668329047 |
45 | 18.1 | 18.2213963634988 | -0.870952047925574 | 0.00297387390616317 | -1.30685708158697 |
46 | 17.1 | 17.1111365101682 | -0.928002002152345 | 0.00299600780130432 | -0.148501055439314 |
47 | 14.8 | 14.8742138196691 | -1.24004597113826 | 0.00308765245231412 | -0.812263278846355 |
48 | 13.8 | 13.7878445647641 | -1.20340941564710 | 0.00307950741115167 | 0.0953673139770658 |
49 | 15.2 | 14.862178320486 | -0.664791237396903 | 0.2046388453672 | 1.47401532683094 |
50 | 16 | 15.9136831765800 | -0.262205278798605 | -0.00332630238084782 | 1.00262874894880 |
51 | 17.6 | 17.4941344610435 | 0.176993521558041 | -0.00297968923905985 | 1.14374343479664 |
52 | 15 | 15.1508974976493 | -0.424013708540985 | -0.0021252901261855 | -1.56338795149384 |
53 | 15 | 14.9868534610410 | -0.362027982296926 | -0.00220121823163593 | 0.161279917995477 |
54 | 16.3 | 16.2090184450483 | 0.0156616529840883 | -0.00255560138647835 | 0.982897284505976 |
55 | 19.4 | 19.2258477690574 | 0.731143433389478 | -0.00306439269124133 | 1.8621795108229 |
56 | 21.3 | 21.2281613880115 | 1.03418741599033 | -0.00322754537066056 | 0.788782569343357 |
57 | 20.5 | 20.6011676868298 | 0.638166061605588 | -0.00306614471756598 | -1.03082912577177 |
58 | 21.1 | 21.1106560101138 | 0.607489454022188 | -0.00305668050479512 | -0.079851821182747 |
59 | 21.6 | 21.6094688875478 | 0.581580906788774 | -0.00305062976711532 | -0.0674413031176323 |
60 | 22.6 | 22.5800905670074 | 0.674329107528364 | -0.00306702651375585 | 0.241430135224306 |