| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 92.9 | 92.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 107.7 | 92.6896588715088 | -0.255408224587871 | 11.4862058095046 | 1.5666548067674 |
| 3 | 103.5 | 95.9571130213081 | 0.33873407102119 | 3.93328481542845 | 1.79029325294979 |
| 4 | 91.1 | 96.8349522021884 | 0.423485059763639 | -6.05327517098392 | 0.181397495851078 |
| 5 | 79.8 | 93.2838337171227 | -0.122637281959 | -11.0959300621323 | -1.39024174152871 |
| 6 | 71.9 | 87.7384773189906 | -0.771104665389701 | -12.0145288848744 | -2.17351412427144 |
| 7 | 82.9 | 84.8266931604193 | -0.994915865053252 | -0.160115655525621 | -0.977188508428675 |
| 8 | 90.1 | 84.4284428943173 | -0.939933815930676 | 5.1128029966993 | 0.302467009589666 |
| 9 | 100.7 | 86.5977434347225 | -0.684901445394613 | 10.8939113236001 | 1.70913723134016 |
| 10 | 90.7 | 87.7990789197332 | -0.545721621551445 | 0.805231580307828 | 1.10332943982679 |
| 11 | 108.8 | 91.1591633714338 | -0.28375898751813 | 13.0483755989312 | 2.39676117711606 |
| 12 | 44.1 | 85.6522090833307 | -0.605278927103812 | -35.1350798057273 | -3.32701502292999 |
| 13 | 93.6 | 84.6350834063906 | -0.615960443069126 | 9.5819190415182 | -0.32363542878073 |
| 14 | 107.4 | 85.5008160701826 | -0.570642640199136 | 19.8085167797505 | 1.10129764248051 |
| 15 | 96.5 | 86.1859164339805 | -0.519351428534164 | 8.74245527183433 | 0.842663491769534 |
| 16 | 93.6 | 87.3065763966798 | -0.442506555448933 | 4.38610410922142 | 1.03887150098209 |
| 17 | 76.5 | 86.8948407551352 | -0.44099857588712 | -10.4298706755120 | 0.0192374399233076 |
| 18 | 76.7 | 86.678979958388 | -0.430026620876359 | -10.2380129310181 | 0.142547550202579 |
| 19 | 84 | 86.3939921811031 | -0.423195811427058 | -2.56510218008255 | 0.0940317144533676 |
| 20 | 103.3 | 88.1654160327014 | -0.324990884961405 | 12.4686131539189 | 1.46077392759870 |
| 21 | 88.5 | 87.6582452075743 | -0.332650245544944 | 1.06949323662941 | -0.124355187337928 |
| 22 | 99 | 88.8199850810234 | -0.274225415054977 | 8.26176750670494 | 1.04369166108818 |
| 23 | 105.9 | 88.9565083929617 | -0.259522140848873 | 16.4029679322993 | 0.293011771483107 |
| 24 | 44.7 | 87.9509488890128 | -0.283202932912098 | -42.2434226261589 | -0.544123915405248 |
| 25 | 94 | 87.4804606057772 | -0.288077321390526 | 6.7812964543588 | -0.140928604769788 |
| 26 | 107.1 | 87.4854477285908 | -0.280776508120438 | 19.2046130697403 | 0.220557366360404 |
| 27 | 104.8 | 88.6386829232844 | -0.242948300591821 | 14.1961118975016 | 1.06015371103563 |
| 28 | 102.5 | 90.187212978114 | -0.192354810314921 | 9.90923787994986 | 1.30167389162281 |
| 29 | 77.7 | 90.5945439357755 | -0.174649392821282 | -13.6894063279646 | 0.431823045761138 |
| 30 | 85.2 | 91.4780356024694 | -0.142886443893557 | -7.67740454751008 | 0.761526374812002 |
| 31 | 91.3 | 92.3839021929191 | -0.111625447586399 | -2.47772720870655 | 0.758796171771787 |
| 32 | 106.5 | 92.9663899001254 | -0.0914593163880353 | 12.6026452216870 | 0.506528146446527 |
| 33 | 92.4 | 93.1821204289992 | -0.082890093477477 | -1.19873615161219 | 0.226414573086229 |
| 34 | 97.5 | 92.8154175798178 | -0.09039312192698 | 5.07404912766853 | -0.211347910648492 |
| 35 | 107 | 92.3636135731259 | -0.0993371009743986 | 15.1382138548937 | -0.271884604166801 |
| 36 | 51.1 | 92.4024274984616 | -0.096170759646488 | -41.4964541313314 | 0.104956503193787 |
| 37 | 98.6 | 92.5912284062815 | -0.0901267100045483 | 5.60459455342621 | 0.218340692796258 |
| 38 | 102.2 | 91.9542646572515 | -0.101305497071859 | 11.0234045807122 | -0.419869473713256 |
| 39 | 114.3 | 92.9807456784587 | -0.078182412054691 | 19.7211350814306 | 0.863179902415187 |
| 40 | 99.4 | 93.1534977447879 | -0.0729285721180936 | 5.89293541372207 | 0.191159228555848 |
| 41 | 72.5 | 92.6504471578614 | -0.082119141796351 | -19.5470088167793 | -0.326595268933698 |
| 42 | 92.3 | 93.468368769283 | -0.0626884545257687 | -2.42928831540983 | 0.682930848028511 |
| 43 | 99.4 | 94.8012246862116 | -0.0326426917322024 | 2.64082456643265 | 1.06073296136916 |
| 44 | 85.9 | 92.8497014467416 | -0.0733147859915818 | -4.24769499770760 | -1.46360157733441 |
| 45 | 109.4 | 94.0773542276447 | -0.0464791764099767 | 13.4815357034655 | 0.996807334186805 |
| 46 | 97.6 | 94.3046864070464 | -0.0410353827161918 | 2.90561020965797 | 0.210850861143600 |
| 47 | 104.7 | 93.8986426555385 | -0.0479807496392532 | 11.3238851407079 | -0.282503396091259 |
| 48 | 56.9 | 94.2988988694428 | -0.0398403959701915 | -38.0440392326514 | 0.348537428297218 |
| 49 | 86.7 | 92.9879798645008 | -0.0619774904272617 | -4.45084026349198 | -0.99191234376584 |
| 50 | 108.5 | 93.1703345405175 | -0.0578339251680406 | 14.9758184033050 | 0.190986099273943 |
| 51 | 103.4 | 92.2021495834002 | -0.0731233370108304 | 12.5160834006845 | -0.711500130759697 |
| 52 | 86.2 | 90.5149500256944 | -0.100267479626643 | -1.98051497421404 | -1.26028062105924 |
| 53 | 71 | 90.0067661009445 | -0.107158792933552 | -18.4174689131130 | -0.318242879042410 |
| 54 | 75.9 | 88.5346700753104 | -0.130259213455715 | -10.6634088344547 | -1.06482595409878 |
| 55 | 87.1 | 87.2752388661739 | -0.149285846332507 | 1.45682568825914 | -0.881688871590838 |
| 56 | 102 | 88.9819829185483 | -0.118379731313824 | 10.3305413985350 | 1.45174519427050 |
| 57 | 88.5 | 87.9447125816579 | -0.133391162943477 | 1.88919545860889 | -0.720401031225008 |
| 58 | 87.8 | 87.0453990008443 | -0.145592609449186 | 1.86974513715388 | -0.602056475077186 |
| 59 | 100.8 | 86.802390550314 | -0.147099983250943 | 14.139875682295 | -0.0767794008640793 |
| 60 | 50.6 | 86.5560765552507 | -0.148589947577902 | -35.8107748484401 | -0.078388589618882 |
| 61 | 85.9 | 86.6456027697475 | -0.145108503481557 | -1.09511693794696 | 0.188500270170006 |
