Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 107.11 | 107.11 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 107.57 | 107.546132163312 | 0.0248710415626975 | 0.0238678366882145 | 0.80932357825462 |
3 | 107.81 | 107.785356069424 | 0.02842448512212 | 0.0246439305758953 | 0.660158303308612 |
4 | 108.75 | 108.722142242238 | 0.0491488765966463 | 0.0278577577617172 | 2.78846269843622 |
5 | 109.43 | 109.399981820168 | 0.0672141384954426 | 0.0300181798316920 | 1.92390558859739 |
6 | 109.62 | 109.589575695473 | 0.0714101077081737 | 0.0304243045274854 | 0.373391103144814 |
7 | 109.54 | 109.510056810592 | 0.0654581191638331 | 0.0299431894082669 | -0.459211087677599 |
8 | 109.53 | 109.500286026673 | 0.0621358155348681 | 0.0297139733274101 | -0.228293953230411 |
9 | 109.84 | 109.809569481716 | 0.0741128209252116 | 0.0304305182838847 | 0.748212577696612 |
10 | 109.67 | 109.640238349600 | 0.0613719343064332 | 0.0297616503998263 | -0.735388071316504 |
11 | 109.79 | 109.760086649944 | 0.0646350590294024 | 0.0299133500556561 | 0.176293439538470 |
12 | 109.56 | 109.530804235667 | 0.0473286642117155 | 0.0291957643325901 | -0.884515685621176 |
13 | 110.22 | 110.240559239838 | 0.0695504960309077 | -0.0205592398383125 | 2.3772269632765 |
14 | 110.4 | 110.396108642431 | 0.0760214359755692 | 0.00389135756885429 | 0.219720051864291 |
15 | 110.69 | 110.685934845870 | 0.089989104261826 | 0.00406515412978858 | 0.640144318683956 |
16 | 110.72 | 110.715980295387 | 0.0859588438282492 | 0.00401970461350254 | -0.179281923321855 |
17 | 110.89 | 110.885921006497 | 0.0917442199615598 | 0.00407899350259487 | 0.250940159190765 |
18 | 110.58 | 110.576184509721 | 0.0635120682337714 | 0.00381549027873475 | -1.19865191998523 |
19 | 110.94 | 110.936003950518 | 0.084714501519575 | 0.00399604948214656 | 0.884018034400308 |
20 | 110.91 | 110.906068740568 | 0.0763887507126039 | 0.00393125943161672 | -0.341840065690101 |
21 | 111.22 | 111.215946495325 | 0.0935577840398648 | 0.00405350467457289 | 0.695799014551623 |
22 | 111.09 | 111.086054790175 | 0.0769519807033824 | 0.00394520982473786 | -0.665572913361689 |
23 | 111 | 110.996129602582 | 0.0644385160812172 | 0.0038703974178266 | -0.496866304380876 |
24 | 111.06 | 111.056131441294 | 0.0641032845879002 | 0.00386855870591091 | -0.0132053727894251 |
25 | 111.55 | 111.508447830662 | 0.0914111177547482 | 0.0415521693381841 | 1.26395208859022 |
26 | 112.32 | 112.313222594141 | 0.147938276846614 | 0.00677740585939785 | 1.93598588472383 |
27 | 112.64 | 112.633200123872 | 0.161144444006279 | 0.00679987612787951 | 0.511574972303186 |
28 | 112.36 | 112.353253302590 | 0.127148238819144 | 0.00674669741047049 | -1.31139231639904 |
29 | 112.04 | 112.033303036844 | 0.092570875710737 | 0.00669696315605846 | -1.32904900082609 |
30 | 112.37 | 112.363278676750 | 0.110984492046492 | 0.00672132324975234 | 0.705619178937622 |
31 | 112.59 | 112.583268361405 | 0.119460013991292 | 0.00673163859538028 | 0.32395112996589 |
32 | 112.89 | 112.883252609154 | 0.133525736145575 | 0.00674739084569808 | 0.53644623471777 |
33 | 113.22 | 113.213236804564 | 0.148860136770374 | 0.00676319543575702 | 0.583748530658545 |
34 | 112.85 | 112.843275279748 | 0.108303035734343 | 0.0067247202520081 | -1.54149694762890 |
35 | 113.06 | 113.053268328800 | 0.11626244341824 | 0.00673167119978386 | 0.302118108131986 |
36 | 112.99 | 112.983280062281 | 0.101668590466631 | 0.00671993771869417 | -0.553317003168438 |
37 | 113.32 | 113.355048343419 | 0.122402313356986 | -0.0350483434186155 | 0.852793714384377 |
38 | 113.74 | 113.734037405220 | 0.142674071186415 | 0.00596259478007121 | 0.71485211291891 |
39 | 113.91 | 113.904038088777 | 0.144820126058072 | 0.00596191122346658 | 0.0811671446970093 |
40 | 114.52 | 114.51404873156 | 0.181373921268729 | 0.00595126844010006 | 1.38170618435842 |
41 | 114.96 | 114.954054183443 | 0.201706497071668 | 0.00594581655735244 | 0.768171527454756 |
42 | 114.91 | 114.904049294742 | 0.181909858498757 | 0.00595070525752811 | -0.747605978788942 |
43 | 115.3 | 115.294053018338 | 0.198281743219668 | 0.00594698166244223 | 0.61804975136406 |
44 | 115.44 | 115.434052057512 | 0.193694971677420 | 0.0059479424880309 | -0.173100779246586 |
45 | 115.52 | 115.514050330700 | 0.184744952994161 | 0.0059496693003318 | -0.337678281972651 |
46 | 116.08 | 116.074055581366 | 0.214291107239876 | 0.00594441863392370 | 1.11451134619512 |
47 | 115.94 | 115.934051014424 | 0.186390573490672 | 0.00594898557588432 | -1.0522401694583 |
48 | 115.56 | 115.554044288484 | 0.141780357204694 | 0.00595571151553915 | -1.68216200287080 |
49 | 115.88 | 115.921218306884 | 0.159388179443751 | -0.0412183068836902 | 0.701055604658623 |
50 | 116.66 | 116.651372321110 | 0.204319201119141 | 0.00862767888981664 | 1.61318168627207 |
51 | 117.41 | 117.401403041318 | 0.247314894565440 | 0.00859695868229918 | 1.62062785099945 |
52 | 117.68 | 117.671404217303 | 0.249102442466250 | 0.00859578269676911 | 0.0673727249895382 |
53 | 117.85 | 117.841400439811 | 0.242868931114299 | 0.00859956018895737 | -0.234926546174502 |
54 | 118.21 | 118.201405592529 | 0.252099681534979 | 0.0085944074705657 | 0.347867105878057 |
55 | 118.92 | 118.911424148525 | 0.288186994904836 | 0.0085758514747072 | 1.35991386955892 |
56 | 119.03 | 119.021417496759 | 0.274143490997354 | 0.00858250324107727 | -0.52919506096991 |
57 | 119.17 | 119.161412883826 | 0.263570872844714 | 0.0085871161735572 | -0.398390346991871 |
58 | 118.95 | 118.941397565435 | 0.225456875072972 | 0.00860243456487196 | -1.43614684198450 |
59 | 118.92 | 118.91139011099 | 0.205321873750939 | 0.00860988901002041 | -0.758675210934209 |
60 | 118.9 | 118.891384054164 | 0.187561763821288 | 0.00861594583578748 | -0.669177455035412 |