Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 7.6 | 7.59639540237201 | 0.23428542226864 | 0.0036045976279917 | 0.872311949205638 |
3 | 7.5 | 7.49357827748373 | -0.0750679612131155 | 0.00642172251626942 | -0.970173911050916 |
4 | 7.6 | 7.59369924340227 | 0.0856459617000033 | 0.00630075659772915 | 0.532724146801564 |
5 | 7.9 | 7.89371139460658 | 0.282414165992223 | 0.00628860539342368 | 0.652468147237377 |
6 | 7.9 | 7.89371008117575 | 0.0231696542248448 | 0.00628991882425245 | -0.859636822184238 |
7 | 8.1 | 8.09371014864573 | 0.185492590053274 | 0.00628985135426768 | 0.538251606697165 |
8 | 8.2 | 8.19371014596955 | 0.107013932173819 | 0.00628985403044805 | -0.260229791212702 |
9 | 8 | 7.9937101451811 | -0.174812145762042 | 0.00628985481890516 | -0.93451574480604 |
10 | 7.5 | 7.49371014511258 | -0.473321131668179 | 0.00628985488742043 | -0.989835111564299 |
11 | 6.8 | 6.79371014510866 | -0.681402947241058 | 0.00628985489133873 | -0.689984881047587 |
12 | 6.5 | 6.4937101451092 | -0.331290833523464 | 0.00628985489079784 | 1.16094750745841 |
13 | 6.6 | 6.62249402481947 | 0.0871420213598957 | -0.0224940248194680 | 1.46296838828869 |
14 | 7.6 | 7.58753610682519 | 0.797227751356276 | 0.0124638931748074 | 2.31033551408993 |
15 | 8 | 7.98559055868502 | 0.430975128467969 | 0.0144094413149839 | -1.17879502927377 |
16 | 8.1 | 8.08545760895555 | 0.127144615791027 | 0.0145423910444483 | -1.00728304615704 |
17 | 7.7 | 7.6854402367889 | -0.356752412277474 | 0.0145597632110952 | -1.60456689144521 |
18 | 7.5 | 7.48544066059922 | -0.212860187888970 | 0.0145593394007775 | 0.477136640564384 |
19 | 7.6 | 7.58544072999622 | 0.0743325107339263 | 0.0145592700037798 | 0.95231108705789 |
20 | 7.8 | 7.78544073228312 | 0.189690062663704 | 0.0145592677168839 | 0.382517648296371 |
21 | 7.8 | 7.78544073199991 | 0.0155624391861711 | 0.0145592680000890 | -0.57739513297434 |
22 | 7.8 | 7.78544073199800 | 0.00127676437037538 | 0.0145592680019952 | -0.0473703077384437 |
23 | 7.5 | 7.48544073199498 | -0.275282831067262 | 0.0145592680050227 | -0.917052453792022 |
24 | 7.5 | 7.4854407319952 | -0.0225845901325705 | 0.0145592680047958 | 0.837929855774401 |
25 | 7.1 | 7.27226335877404 | -0.196530167346724 | -0.172263358774043 | -0.596561262010691 |
26 | 7.5 | 7.48090615231051 | 0.143834523550880 | 0.0190938476894929 | 1.11702491797441 |
27 | 7.5 | 7.48039425359165 | 0.0113757242717072 | 0.0196057464083517 | -0.429865863048256 |
28 | 7.6 | 7.58042012422508 | 0.092730900711259 | 0.0195798757749171 | 0.269729622804666 |
29 | 7.7 | 7.68042029831248 | 0.0994036338559933 | 0.0195797016875153 | 0.0221262994531427 |
30 | 7.7 | 7.68042010300356 | 0.008155213657866 | 0.0195798969964388 | -0.302573436202211 |
31 | 7.9 | 7.88042013392808 | 0.184260784257813 | 0.0195798660719226 | 0.58395386854156 |
32 | 8.1 | 8.08042013413622 | 0.198708732632663 | 0.0195798658637762 | 0.0479083956152225 |
33 | 8.2 | 8.18042013402913 | 0.108098203074893 | 0.0195798659708724 | -0.300458236998992 |
34 | 8.2 | 8.1804201340195 | 0.00886852841874838 | 0.0195798659804946 | -0.329038724866522 |
35 | 8.2 | 8.18042013401944 | 0.000727586528516767 | 0.0195798659805593 | -0.0269947991672508 |
36 | 7.9 | 7.88042013401926 | -0.275327886388801 | 0.0195798659807396 | -0.91538081844869 |
37 | 7.3 | 7.5193445893845 | -0.353709715765585 | -0.219344589384493 | -0.266412201014775 |
38 | 6.9 | 6.88192914455305 | -0.596951364659631 | 0.0180708554469515 | -0.801098916764735 |
39 | 6.6 | 6.5827591201618 | -0.323673772835834 | 0.0172408798382020 | 0.891022041950161 |
40 | 6.7 | 6.68285625148906 | 0.0652478194236635 | 0.0171437485109373 | 1.28949248454303 |
41 | 6.9 | 6.88285878601113 | 0.188944755980244 | 0.0171412139888740 | 0.410170160360221 |
42 | 7 | 6.9828586487607 | 0.107297152652633 | 0.0171413512393016 | -0.270737793346502 |
43 | 7.1 | 7.0828586478369 | 0.100598668653421 | 0.0171413521631056 | -0.0222117087575052 |
44 | 7.2 | 7.18285864783068 | 0.100049115617238 | 0.0171413521693236 | -0.00182227978574612 |
45 | 7.1 | 7.08285864766021 | -0.0835876895588362 | 0.0171413523397862 | -0.608926920531383 |
46 | 6.9 | 6.88285864765208 | -0.190449370534637 | 0.0171413523479243 | -0.354345928949323 |
47 | 7 | 6.98285864765374 | 0.0761711256660793 | 0.0171413523462585 | 0.884095089469596 |
48 | 6.8 | 6.78285864765361 | -0.177342532930814 | 0.0171413523463885 | -0.840633724236474 |
49 | 6.4 | 6.58914992692075 | -0.192316358738675 | -0.189149926920748 | -0.0506304848348785 |
50 | 6.7 | 6.6812711421843 | 0.0546877202695599 | 0.0187288578157056 | 0.814982755297965 |
51 | 6.6 | 6.58091521163117 | -0.0876044754305867 | 0.0190847883688329 | -0.465341983043639 |
52 | 6.4 | 6.38089399715998 | -0.190780357170881 | 0.0191060028400165 | -0.342092499914615 |
53 | 6.3 | 6.28089540290874 | -0.107447740166072 | 0.019104597091258 | 0.276325011665894 |
54 | 6.2 | 6.18089541237053 | -0.100611023060244 | 0.0191045876294654 | 0.0226700800659161 |
55 | 6.5 | 6.48089545412519 | 0.267133308957569 | 0.0191045458748114 | 1.21941472145232 |
56 | 6.8 | 6.78089545440623 | 0.297303570501186 | 0.0191045455937696 | 0.100042496577755 |
57 | 6.8 | 6.78089545419766 | 0.0243912025268236 | 0.0191045458023379 | -0.904958500264783 |
58 | 6.4 | 6.38089545417324 | -0.365182349630097 | 0.0191045458267636 | -1.29179890277406 |
59 | 6.1 | 6.08089545417354 | -0.305347651521043 | 0.0191045458264558 | 0.198407712579930 |
60 | 5.8 | 5.78089545417355 | -0.300438728842283 | 0.0191045458264538 | 0.0162776474304136 |
61 | 6.1 | 6.28602251203299 | 0.437023850462163 | -0.186022512032987 | 2.48511089966492 |
62 | 7.2 | 7.1810000224947 | 0.838202003351515 | 0.0189999775052993 | 1.32513066817445 |
63 | 7.3 | 7.27955653815045 | 0.159365640619195 | 0.0204434618495487 | -2.22467789645746 |
64 | 6.9 | 6.87946681357677 | -0.354114963910708 | 0.0205331864232308 | -1.70253256245747 |
65 | 6.1 | 6.07946094583202 | -0.763418998098226 | 0.0205390541679799 | -1.35722309747112 |
66 | 5.8 | 5.77946144616051 | -0.338019545309172 | 0.0205385538394887 | 1.41059510164002 |
67 | 6.2 | 6.17946151153109 | 0.339451839857443 | 0.0205384884689067 | 2.24644816659836 |
68 | 7.1 | 7.07946151560453 | 0.85401184157653 | 0.0205384843954744 | 1.70624530836807 |
69 | 7.7 | 7.67946151545309 | 0.620839488276781 | 0.0205384845469122 | -0.773183365457345 |
70 | 7.9 | 7.8794615154325 | 0.234526262743969 | 0.0205384845674963 | -1.28098788561853 |
71 | 7.7 | 7.67946151543076 | -0.164350855053826 | 0.0205384845692399 | -1.3226488817324 |
72 | 7.4 | 7.37946151543072 | -0.288871153611122 | 0.0205384845692847 | -0.412900681164878 |
73 | 7.5 | 7.71014714151173 | 0.278539781442523 | -0.210147141511725 | 1.90750876607253 |