| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.920153543184328 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 101.29 | 102.550463407594 | -1.26046340759406 |
| 14 | 104.48 | 104.602730522094 | -0.122730522094429 |
| 15 | 99.26 | 99.6753984574467 | -0.415398457446727 |
| 16 | 100.11 | 101.289862238172 | -1.17986223817176 |
| 17 | 103.52 | 105.559180439175 | -2.0391804391746 |
| 18 | 101.18 | 102.963286964500 | -1.78328696450015 |
| 19 | 96.39 | 94.8978731140655 | 1.49212688593451 |
| 20 | 97.56 | 97.8852964365457 | -0.325296436545713 |
| 21 | 96.39 | 103.119535295576 | -6.72953529557613 |
| 22 | 85.1 | 94.6332701866511 | -9.53327018665112 |
| 23 | 79.77 | 86.0655769472826 | -6.29557694728264 |
| 24 | 79.13 | 69.3506367448069 | 9.77936325519308 |
| 25 | 80.84 | 78.7549356119757 | 2.08506438802434 |
| 26 | 82.75 | 83.1372271531058 | -0.387227153105812 |
| 27 | 92.55 | 78.7840533402804 | 13.7659466597196 |
| 28 | 96.6 | 93.1695274464866 | 3.43047255351337 |
| 29 | 96.92 | 101.377299851777 | -4.45729985177677 |
| 30 | 95.32 | 96.564852267570 | -1.24485226756993 |
| 31 | 98.52 | 89.5592530805919 | 8.96074691940808 |
| 32 | 100.22 | 99.3075764402621 | 0.912423559737888 |
| 33 | 104.91 | 105.290777026023 | -0.380777026023466 |
| 34 | 103.1 | 102.191592970719 | 0.908407029281022 |
| 35 | 97.13 | 103.729976358562 | -6.59997635856163 |
| 36 | 103.42 | 85.9232096367148 | 17.4967903632852 |
| 37 | 111.72 | 101.977383578408 | 9.74261642159215 |
| 38 | 118.11 | 114.357394470627 | 3.7526055293734 |
| 39 | 111.62 | 113.850245539943 | -2.230245539943 |
| 40 | 100.22 | 113.035460127926 | -12.8154601279261 |
| 41 | 102.03 | 105.902646682722 | -3.87264668272198 |
| 42 | 105.76 | 101.906100937249 | 3.85389906275057 |
| 43 | 107.68 | 99.8913280485863 | 7.78867195141372 |
| 44 | 110.77 | 108.064869657110 | 2.70513034289016 |
| 45 | 105.44 | 116.205272156857 | -10.7652721568571 |
| 46 | 112.26 | 103.629579518495 | 8.63042048150494 |
| 47 | 114.07 | 111.71903784818 | 2.35096215181997 |
| 48 | 117.9 | 102.259219751822 | 15.6407802481777 |
| 49 | 124.72 | 115.932235382006 | 8.78776461799356 |
| 50 | 126.42 | 127.359399204059 | -0.939399204058844 |
| 51 | 134.73 | 121.795170688827 | 12.9348293111733 |
| 52 | 135.79 | 134.183278729583 | 1.60672127041653 |
| 53 | 143.36 | 143.222880571604 | 0.137119428395977 |
| 54 | 140.37 | 143.942195012112 | -3.57219501211239 |
| 55 | 144.74 | 133.894603119323 | 10.8453968806771 |
| 56 | 151.98 | 144.951847490197 | 7.02815250980285 |
| 57 | 150.92 | 157.886378739035 | -6.9663787390354 |
| 58 | 163.38 | 150.177182940924 | 13.2028170590756 |
| 59 | 154.43 | 162.202177118590 | -7.7721771185904 |
| 60 | 146.66 | 140.773339567004 | 5.88666043299571 |
| 61 | 157.95 | 144.755250911963 | 13.1947490880372 |
| 62 | 162.1 | 160.333704216974 | 1.76629578302607 |
| 63 | 180.42 | 157.465026378038 | 22.9549736219623 |
| 64 | 179.57 | 178.292686484971 | 1.27731351502882 |
| 65 | 171.58 | 189.580964914839 | -18.0009649148392 |
| 66 | 185.43 | 173.545805315572 | 11.8841946844279 |
| 67 | 190.64 | 177.291228069076 | 13.3487719309241 |
| 68 | 203 | 190.815585017929 | 12.1844149820714 |
| 69 | 202.36 | 209.395850986913 | -7.03585098691346 |
| 70 | 193.41 | 203.538037353040 | -10.1280373530402 |
| 71 | 186.17 | 192.212178995332 | -6.04217899533177 |
| 72 | 192.24 | 170.861457906277 | 21.3785420937233 |
| 73 | 209.6 | 189.562102051625 | 20.0378979483749 |
| 74 | 206.41 | 211.583459744775 | -5.17345974477499 |
| 75 | 209.82 | 203.195042896616 | 6.62495710338416 |
| 76 | 230.37 | 207.069720475956 | 23.3002795240444 |
| 77 | 235.8 | 239.475619716213 | -3.67561971621279 |
| 78 | 232.07 | 240.352155936019 | -8.28215593601874 |
| 79 | 244.64 | 223.98075029129 | 20.65924970871 |
| 80 | 242.19 | 244.617380800953 | -2.42738080095259 |
| 81 | 217.48 | 249.497595313175 | -32.0175953131751 |
| 82 | 209.39 | 220.472571918630 | -11.0825719186305 |
| 83 | 211.73 | 208.508698783079 | 3.22130121692123 |
| 84 | 221 | 195.932941862973 | 25.0670581370273 |
| 85 | 203.11 | 217.721859797283 | -14.6118597972831 |
| 86 | 214.71 | 205.777093583481 | 8.93290641651939 |
| 87 | 224.19 | 211.225945582753 | 12.9640544172466 |
| 88 | 238.04 | 222.074437893810 | 15.9655621061904 |
| 89 | 238.36 | 245.841137318728 | -7.48113731872832 |
| 90 | 246.24 | 242.889907364607 | 3.35009263539334 |
| 91 | 259.87 | 239.06069226031 | 20.8093077396901 |
| 92 | 249.97 | 258.024929564917 | -8.05492956491722 |
| 93 | 266.48 | 255.205291429979 | 11.2747085700207 |
| 94 | 282.98 | 268.294449726952 | 14.6855502730481 |
| 95 | 306.31 | 281.265227373421 | 25.0447726265787 |
| 96 | 301.73 | 284.538305920824 | 17.1916940791764 |
| 97 | 314.62 | 294.501688287106 | 20.1183117128938 |
| 98 | 332.62 | 318.626349263052 | 13.9936507369484 |
| 99 | 355.51 | 328.080495580866 | 27.4295044191337 |
| 100 | 370.32 | 352.340395720063 | 17.979604279937 |
| 101 | 408.13 | 380.485158421405 | 27.6448415785947 |
| 102 | 433.58 | 414.694198974621 | 18.8858010253791 |
| 103 | 440.51 | 422.813281062557 | 17.6967189374425 |
| 104 | 386.29 | 435.441061327431 | -49.1510613274305 |
| 105 | 342.84 | 400.222905935782 | -57.3829059357818 |
| 106 | 254.97 | 351.509404824083 | -96.5394048240827 |
| 107 | 203.42 | 262.739092371358 | -59.3190923713579 |
| 108 | 170.09 | 193.980810218526 | -23.8908102185262 |
| 109 | 174.03 | 168.390105644253 | 5.63989435574683 |
| 110 | 167.85 | 176.012232952996 | -8.1622329529965 |
| 111 | 177.01 | 166.826799469627 | 10.1832005303732 |
| 112 | 188.19 | 174.892212235496 | 13.2977877645044 |
| 113 | 211.2 | 192.890568864660 | 18.3094311353403 |
| 114 | 240.91 | 213.433724813631 | 27.4762751863690 |
| 115 | 230.26 | 233.155433530494 | -2.89543353049393 |
| 116 | 251.25 | 225.150196244658 | 26.0998037553421 |
| 117 | 241.66 | 254.445458589964 | -12.7854585899641 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 118 | 241.267117570009 | 205.495043998350 | 277.039191141669 |
| 119 | 242.915317003428 | 194.071266861086 | 291.759367145769 |
| 120 | 229.23257997572 | 172.282020809341 | 286.183139142099 |
| 121 | 227.813035915904 | 162.157040952779 | 293.469030879029 |
| 122 | 229.770997095142 | 155.641243594516 | 303.900750595768 |
| 123 | 229.728772663041 | 148.396942294544 | 311.060603031539 |
| 124 | 228.513633017624 | 140.898044244985 | 316.129221790262 |
| 125 | 236.037082278896 | 139.504752943477 | 332.569411614314 |
| 126 | 240.828593914365 | 136.688345597029 | 344.968842231701 |
| 127 | 232.842577490626 | 126.509019616902 | 339.176135364351 |
| 128 | 229.589120588057 | 119.311451647316 | 339.866789528798 |
| 129 | 231.457709368691 | 112.476456961079 | 350.438961776304 |
