Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 96.2 | 96.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 96.8 | 96.1618718674227 | -0.0126865109502198 | 0.490971693927525 | 0.0860215771604872 |
3 | 109.9 | 97.8564999577522 | 0.415593165275395 | 9.04013220229752 | 1.88304573603355 |
4 | 88 | 97.4162637686966 | 0.243871635195932 | -8.77666105585891 | -0.467456494185525 |
5 | 91.1 | 95.9179594030788 | -0.0478297635721764 | -3.649505879799 | -0.896635600476273 |
6 | 106.4 | 97.4000538363749 | 0.17240902805175 | 7.82665540008514 | 0.887236300630742 |
7 | 68.6 | 93.0761071637469 | -0.39705910807483 | -20.3647862701227 | -3.02520531147466 |
8 | 100.1 | 92.4915161993549 | -0.418355535605214 | 7.81037705660163 | -0.144907068863579 |
9 | 108 | 94.2436324968791 | -0.193690153377554 | 11.0653809205561 | 1.89289485129042 |
10 | 106 | 96.3097186045542 | 0.0226756511316319 | 6.53086081937811 | 2.18718107318629 |
11 | 108.6 | 98.5589473476668 | 0.222548005517190 | 6.59344450769942 | 2.35656974113319 |
12 | 91.5 | 98.7959961106165 | 0.223783704608746 | -7.32048451049012 | 0.0165692232562231 |
13 | 99.2 | 99.1946555421075 | 0.23879406333943 | -0.361311224508351 | 0.251425387781672 |
14 | 98 | 99.5063921747267 | 0.244841122722130 | -1.65666462809965 | 0.103254253493782 |
15 | 96.6 | 98.5311789397447 | 0.148176546067776 | 0.429629625185758 | -1.64136365338194 |
16 | 102.8 | 99.177374137127 | 0.186162272036182 | 2.68368415669078 | 0.658413845685761 |
17 | 96.9 | 99.6074663127151 | 0.204282120150003 | -3.17105764207554 | 0.326128408301993 |
18 | 110 | 99.8058849262497 | 0.203853090494484 | 10.2055444122462 | -0.00803834350682169 |
19 | 70.5 | 99.3895806803128 | 0.158724877253652 | -27.643454931696 | -0.874814263939484 |
20 | 101.9 | 99.214910696614 | 0.134415793260070 | 3.37457341488604 | -0.482935013575488 |
21 | 109.6 | 99.474842162035 | 0.143636019143187 | 9.8592391982428 | 0.185851046967658 |
22 | 107.8 | 100.019340977883 | 0.173418338886763 | 6.91563510066174 | 0.603463025216093 |
23 | 113 | 100.842876017541 | 0.222414465362532 | 10.7366334685519 | 0.989712451552453 |
24 | 93.8 | 101.332643981784 | 0.242913984386474 | -8.1209633866507 | 0.409803892376178 |
25 | 108 | 102.166037360142 | 0.289173366611608 | 4.52930922631014 | 0.910942360346007 |
26 | 102.8 | 102.746020876557 | 0.312140769626003 | -0.58890729822394 | 0.448987937159778 |
27 | 116.3 | 104.251771807746 | 0.406425923644514 | 9.419881862065 | 1.83654106272736 |
28 | 89.2 | 103.747071849922 | 0.33460597814422 | -12.5487334222503 | -1.39746185411897 |
29 | 106.7 | 104.156940012441 | 0.340529275078233 | 2.37835433058455 | 0.115256056455591 |
30 | 112.1 | 104.262550827013 | 0.322044120001502 | 8.35104105603378 | -0.359528535384603 |
31 | 74.2 | 104.292926254431 | 0.299068910279756 | -29.4558214110489 | -0.446067606127425 |
32 | 108.8 | 104.631647896674 | 0.302198267893774 | 4.08186950604718 | 0.0605569658307478 |
33 | 111.5 | 104.819655511912 | 0.293166485923085 | 6.92876961709984 | -0.173977527971904 |
34 | 118.8 | 105.741217924979 | 0.342978007734423 | 11.6964125290637 | 0.954345355142754 |
35 | 118.9 | 106.602049505399 | 0.384106530537516 | 11.1798385589076 | 0.783587309827782 |
36 | 97.6 | 107.222912647773 | 0.402938249704697 | -10.1319977051131 | 0.357005752894727 |
37 | 116.4 | 108.150064416429 | 0.44467166797434 | 7.1262473391355 | 0.788577828270827 |
38 | 107.9 | 108.890722497397 | 0.468232998680826 | -1.62449478113955 | 0.444878281818144 |
39 | 121.2 | 109.560412632243 | 0.484257925108361 | 11.2083084306094 | 0.302742568850661 |
40 | 97.9 | 110.163421018652 | 0.493695495040898 | -12.5176635821778 | 0.178470242512235 |
41 | 113.4 | 110.714557173504 | 0.498256934967044 | 2.56243432593885 | 0.0863503235913144 |
42 | 117.6 | 111.084296498494 | 0.488057057509401 | 6.79100019038001 | -0.193258835069785 |
43 | 79.6 | 111.379627302688 | 0.472766923304771 | -31.3667180926021 | -0.289865666753695 |
44 | 115.9 | 111.848514414966 | 0.472459186529135 | 4.05979741397394 | -0.00583501386620065 |
45 | 115.7 | 112.185954999426 | 0.46175170138517 | 3.80319938640297 | -0.202995190229790 |
46 | 129.1 | 113.087966185628 | 0.496659804722177 | 15.0697168732532 | 0.661574159950877 |
47 | 123.3 | 113.727488602608 | 0.507984918249084 | 9.266931309824 | 0.214560500698876 |
48 | 96.7 | 113.805698924191 | 0.473924118810532 | -16.1868955791862 | -0.64521022119424 |
49 | 121.2 | 114.150456645875 | 0.463689844631275 | 7.32562972000344 | -0.193895446725384 |
50 | 118.2 | 115.003727334308 | 0.4945524558364 | 2.36345909196876 | 0.584900465992555 |
51 | 102.1 | 113.704295236885 | 0.352442535840324 | -7.76838182324776 | -2.69398427703633 |
52 | 125.4 | 115.231496429980 | 0.445501248769139 | 7.6561465727521 | 1.76441185270405 |
53 | 116.7 | 115.971275072241 | 0.46881352250293 | 0.0992920029997628 | 0.442045513572269 |
54 | 121.3 | 116.382844534991 | 0.464278470066391 | 5.03960894674692 | -0.0859985382032313 |
55 | 85.3 | 116.816002999918 | 0.461812925503101 | -31.4494268200874 | -0.0467563664472438 |
56 | 114.2 | 116.703532201626 | 0.416312728777668 | -1.27488356153166 | -0.862879213363571 |
57 | 124.4 | 117.207534760243 | 0.42326039503103 | 7.00485787476883 | 0.131756650380654 |
58 | 131 | 117.499488072170 | 0.412857129964083 | 13.781422607914 | -0.197284711475872 |
59 | 118.3 | 117.078653088423 | 0.346807506490044 | 3.00478326692709 | -1.25253114634782 |
60 | 99.6 | 116.927219368448 | 0.307335914110379 | -16.2614276120992 | -0.748532767038808 |