| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 14.2 | 14.2950077468344 | 0.0016661721550155 | -0.0780265031164082 | -0.135206814530930 |
| 3 | 15.9 | 14.7116131078678 | 0.0490581531599838 | 0.991909141254442 | 1.81090677204527 |
| 4 | 15.3 | 15.0755008788308 | 0.0868600394767477 | 0.118197520801480 | 1.11331515010707 |
| 5 | 15.5 | 15.3100318510466 | 0.102913073084110 | 0.133530814546456 | 0.589314249027969 |
| 6 | 15.1 | 15.3563275075830 | 0.0975760865211123 | -0.230424389718164 | -0.261606018765814 |
| 7 | 15 | 15.3196747023397 | 0.0867515390937438 | -0.249454491585662 | -0.68982583395243 |
| 8 | 12.1 | 14.6750570502635 | 0.0360034328797377 | -2.15769139885873 | -4.02461137081414 |
| 9 | 15.8 | 14.6703439741972 | 0.0335291248136388 | 1.15418490005985 | -0.233744802012717 |
| 10 | 16.9 | 15.1071856524621 | 0.0554830683677146 | 1.54157002985212 | 2.37637421446372 |
| 11 | 15.1 | 15.2848508932190 | 0.061573077470008 | -0.262571162429353 | 0.731624844678089 |
| 12 | 13.7 | 15.067035457687 | 0.0485841922323457 | -1.18693530095794 | -1.69016311865968 |
| 13 | 14.8 | 15.0418926311270 | 0.0483022663226904 | -0.188765019917626 | -0.506042089126555 |
| 14 | 14.7 | 15.1030278530681 | 0.0484603741658385 | -0.411868938439442 | 0.0844505345182671 |
| 15 | 16 | 15.1766778135291 | 0.0492083361093919 | 0.807872597213215 | 0.150091107778446 |
| 16 | 15.4 | 15.2482462914235 | 0.0501226134186181 | 0.13912167790673 | 0.125101567369744 |
| 17 | 15 | 15.1783295632088 | 0.0446357383812894 | -0.112223283305054 | -0.662065917375712 |
| 18 | 15.5 | 15.2070173512803 | 0.0438968034082572 | 0.301871067890596 | -0.0892618039525464 |
| 19 | 15.1 | 15.1606179730318 | 0.0398709689973782 | -0.00892349253284508 | -0.518005837561388 |
| 20 | 11.7 | 14.9522493924744 | 0.0295240195103816 | -3.10606746351644 | -1.45888694819494 |
| 21 | 16.3 | 14.9946467787721 | 0.0300173015236785 | 1.29758723028116 | 0.0771677660447492 |
| 22 | 16.7 | 15.0477189551846 | 0.0308187663278044 | 1.63810465617110 | 0.140291329473701 |
| 23 | 15 | 15.0690457484297 | 0.0305249247535039 | -0.0631196386936098 | -0.0584266714262434 |
| 24 | 14.9 | 15.2584889663350 | 0.0347497255643355 | -0.459089932224338 | 0.98853549968283 |
| 25 | 14.6 | 15.2590795141442 | 0.0340283265649276 | -0.63708080911465 | -0.215639816957508 |
| 26 | 15.3 | 15.3505854351663 | 0.0352321631711392 | -0.0873936592130896 | 0.360837901617910 |
| 27 | 17.9 | 15.6952680275738 | 0.0426583300539371 | 2.01118306693364 | 1.90381119753072 |
| 28 | 16.4 | 15.9090859634408 | 0.0473660362714403 | 0.38647366039374 | 1.03256540511006 |
| 29 | 15.4 | 15.9133313214178 | 0.0460712169734231 | -0.48739942557148 | -0.257517508509476 |
| 30 | 17.9 | 16.2076229354361 | 0.0538192169545017 | 1.54348962929948 | 1.48215975139601 |
| 31 | 15.9 | 16.2432691393372 | 0.053251914131949 | -0.332304975172251 | -0.109196623808679 |
| 32 | 13.9 | 16.4249015654222 | 0.0571470498617714 | -2.60311932434909 | 0.778266781918136 |
| 33 | 17.8 | 16.5395863929238 | 0.0588089437294889 | 1.22498605080323 | 0.35191211740369 |
| 34 | 17.9 | 16.5756735338209 | 0.0581934928275664 | 1.33845175324218 | -0.140042297330697 |
| 35 | 17.4 | 16.8087784477888 | 0.0625918283103238 | 0.481606914919802 | 1.08478235226376 |
| 36 | 16.7 | 17.0030953045543 | 0.0656582305251482 | -0.386172679368081 | 0.820927596171908 |
| 37 | 16 | 17.0902117353923 | 0.0661268667354803 | -1.10379913840598 | 0.134125794935218 |
| 38 | 16.6 | 17.1563820783511 | 0.0661278025753503 | -0.556409569217355 | 0.000271328430303025 |
| 39 | 19.1 | 17.2398122083880 | 0.0665116068812848 | 1.84931555325480 | 0.107395871153424 |
| 40 | 17.8 | 17.3524817226194 | 0.0675851596603464 | 0.418738355986728 | 0.284717613202098 |
| 41 | 17.2 | 17.5316946522821 | 0.0702922184361049 | -0.400892840359318 | 0.685651408141149 |
| 42 | 18.6 | 17.5581362422092 | 0.0692016503672748 | 1.06898720970759 | -0.269051621832577 |
| 43 | 16.3 | 17.4694975128457 | 0.0652520213595037 | -1.07174745728954 | -0.97004230462107 |
| 44 | 15.1 | 17.53285474132 | 0.0652051385182 | -2.43167721929837 | -0.0116829235977194 |
| 45 | 19.2 | 17.6838235949886 | 0.0672745608794762 | 1.46264082189809 | 0.530821575783378 |
| 46 | 17.7 | 17.5787807352037 | 0.0632580110904904 | 0.2292646579917 | -1.07041315944125 |
| 47 | 19.1 | 17.7800839975238 | 0.0663531453731534 | 1.23302237853707 | 0.860146087810786 |
| 48 | 18 | 17.9928678456436 | 0.0695181798509990 | -0.0853100803674719 | 0.91443624558341 |
| 49 | 17.5 | 18.2111426918897 | 0.0726485578419924 | -0.805199507071602 | 0.929980344330664 |
| 50 | 17.8 | 18.3559678714986 | 0.0741523140731951 | -0.601592522962833 | 0.451050971789584 |
| 51 | 21.1 | 18.6092635846217 | 0.0779077250159875 | 2.37770551672387 | 1.11768105353519 |
| 52 | 17.2 | 18.4213693425908 | 0.0722486600696717 | -1.05408961133033 | -1.65490189898993 |
| 53 | 19.4 | 18.6143614565411 | 0.0748626193260183 | 0.709814612091021 | 0.75054699514837 |
| 54 | 19.8 | 18.7154442016736 | 0.0754370068253858 | 1.06810739195392 | 0.162888033306992 |
| 55 | 17.6 | 18.7861370083915 | 0.0753326760074915 | -1.18316011444552 | -0.0294863541080765 |
| 56 | 16.2 | 18.8332203302173 | 0.0747143352158588 | -2.61547145295293 | -0.175796358356960 |
| 57 | 19.5 | 18.7460665736553 | 0.0712137008835889 | 0.855825510628639 | -1.00895861596640 |
| 58 | 19.9 | 18.9590857296578 | 0.0742284171813015 | 0.851469732935928 | 0.885385781614835 |
| 59 | 20 | 19.0773190988247 | 0.0751462222975807 | 0.894873404541586 | 0.275155117591189 |
| 60 | 17.3 | 18.8941547915706 | 0.0698533142828176 | -1.43069437521422 | -1.61691627781329 |
