Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 2.05 | 2.05 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 2.11 | 2.10550228333807 | 0.055086901413454 | 0.000254422544490914 | 0.494191899655496 |
3 | 2.09 | 2.09379420921831 | -0.00413179270289699 | 0.000181479967528189 | -0.519504750952149 |
4 | 2.05 | 2.05189478713739 | -0.0378711409085437 | 0.000312222462612323 | -0.291042686075173 |
5 | 2.08 | 2.07593840078256 | 0.0174651610228923 | 0.000453352260624469 | 0.476570064202292 |
6 | 2.06 | 2.06158926506531 | -0.0109702546829431 | 0.000264878442689286 | -0.244893673488323 |
7 | 2.06 | 2.05913695536727 | -0.00335711171972639 | 0.000366629764517453 | 0.0655662209842697 |
8 | 2.08 | 2.07831481389858 | 0.0167839726444885 | 0.000371887623815297 | 0.173459830983795 |
9 | 2.07 | 2.07110489948264 | -0.00466103840369362 | 0.000293421474559669 | -0.184689559220871 |
10 | 2.06 | 2.06003349383049 | -0.0103904327790977 | 0.000340091065174862 | -0.049342913299022 |
11 | 2.07 | 2.06852711653732 | 0.00648757235424146 | 0.000372353917460801 | 0.145357412906950 |
12 | 2.06 | 2.06053411140089 | -0.00645473559529547 | 0.000309791191223819 | -0.111462248395294 |
13 | 2.09 | 2.08855878006775 | 0.0241023938329607 | -0.000551256295274522 | 0.275509875518237 |
14 | 2.07 | 2.07217151064785 | -0.00853191963200855 | -0.000331286755491126 | -0.274961343125137 |
15 | 2.09 | 2.08892675824127 | 0.0141235062564914 | -0.000358877413905303 | 0.191565587765278 |
16 | 2.28 | 2.27071861413539 | 0.163520744084163 | -0.000398366860999124 | 1.28429828707629 |
17 | 2.33 | 2.33659783785259 | 0.0763974263688944 | -0.000932657109126542 | -0.750330404935644 |
18 | 2.35 | 2.35426666731232 | 0.023986296236913 | -0.00085865491168866 | -0.451374968387652 |
19 | 2.52 | 2.51248404191719 | 0.143773064641857 | -0.000273186044029966 | 1.03163201317839 |
20 | 2.63 | 2.63219124574724 | 0.122297241448747 | -0.000794777902602254 | -0.184954920666186 |
21 | 2.58 | 2.59069109276929 | -0.0238716260144916 | -0.00118644556801488 | -1.25884120982568 |
22 | 2.7 | 2.69290381674499 | 0.0886432215696158 | -0.000220107497223841 | 0.969004751180477 |
23 | 2.81 | 2.80902044670855 | 0.113159994793696 | -0.000614652684749357 | 0.211144316486505 |
24 | 2.97 | 2.96803469963342 | 0.154077858407023 | -0.000695387284761207 | 0.352394673069802 |
25 | 3.04 | 3.04230449476650 | 0.0832559090424943 | 0.00230215566355600 | -0.629571537124373 |
26 | 3.28 | 3.27123648183999 | 0.203692903738758 | 0.00170287523775782 | 1.02218875637506 |
27 | 3.33 | 3.33801450446212 | 0.0813145616404421 | -0.00023660622720393 | -1.03999433034247 |
28 | 3.5 | 3.49346400476165 | 0.147291367535190 | 0.00226997019119995 | 0.567341249296294 |
29 | 3.56 | 3.56338926297289 | 0.0783613619043397 | 0.00108108498108675 | -0.593644191704065 |
30 | 3.57 | 3.57373730214937 | 0.0177555846641899 | 0.000193177496011629 | -0.521949151692061 |
31 | 3.69 | 3.68287758547929 | 0.099184422436968 | 0.00184145678711889 | 0.701284459942084 |
32 | 3.82 | 3.81594809570475 | 0.129378374435004 | 0.00209371526806466 | 0.260037528798505 |
33 | 3.79 | 3.79892912237731 | -0.00106779763212017 | -0.000469207545369109 | -1.12343360104015 |
34 | 3.96 | 3.9487738346009 | 0.133402002591995 | 0.00250530345643744 | 1.15808605242002 |
35 | 4.06 | 4.0605452698899 | 0.114128007463414 | 0.000704719764913724 | -0.165992288687277 |
36 | 4.05 | 4.05575346098592 | 0.00817376505962676 | 0.00111804415324393 | -0.912507601156373 |
37 | 4.03 | 4.04605690594991 | -0.00768761915291363 | -0.0150275296841509 | -0.139888409728297 |
38 | 3.94 | 3.94267890072427 | -0.088007982499158 | 0.00213442906011896 | -0.684338884062229 |
39 | 4.02 | 4.01193014656507 | 0.0522816868322661 | -0.000870976416657565 | 1.19608688594769 |
40 | 3.88 | 3.88941390524048 | -0.103088125110612 | 0.000610541144408047 | -1.33624690710329 |
41 | 4.02 | 4.00474445202045 | 0.091241177161546 | 0.00268373659723975 | 1.67361715033159 |
42 | 4.03 | 4.03513533070005 | 0.0370948644743885 | -0.00163243499693308 | -0.466318983809424 |
43 | 4.09 | 4.08839950233416 | 0.0514823120693922 | 0.000669722128436105 | 0.123908112164531 |
44 | 3.99 | 3.99630225725133 | -0.0762730635264383 | 0.00196269934449509 | -1.10025981780046 |
45 | 4.01 | 4.00642130143047 | 0.000597547718701047 | -0.00139433886470664 | 0.662028071101311 |
46 | 4.01 | 4.0084328222656 | 0.00185568965899208 | 0.00148578398941464 | 0.0108354191475795 |
47 | 4.19 | 4.17868128990975 | 0.151692319257030 | 0.00162523582842761 | 1.29042966884808 |
48 | 4.3 | 4.30161511865954 | 0.126106622692991 | 4.00999620611112e-05 | -0.220353336943374 |
49 | 4.27 | 4.28959946791402 | 0.00354192411836131 | -0.0116620373985295 | -1.07542348714431 |
50 | 3.82 | 3.84653558744199 | -0.375097702422977 | -0.00352560727368743 | -3.23373606929134 |
51 | 3.15 | 3.16867442721705 | -0.644734457961616 | -0.00146585603501340 | -2.30416983777184 |
52 | 2.49 | 2.49420101719043 | -0.671136492532336 | -0.00250113042596190 | -0.227087371837388 |
53 | 1.81 | 1.80906730282175 | -0.683573719601523 | 0.00173547733716279 | -0.107112796876607 |
54 | 1.26 | 1.25541356284125 | -0.568118289766527 | -0.0028657985782661 | 0.994325321012272 |
55 | 1.06 | 1.03701357110716 | -0.257344952051475 | 0.00292698108346429 | 2.67645370711937 |
56 | 0.84 | 0.837089958407676 | -0.206318778812806 | -0.000383539928340867 | 0.439449594370366 |
57 | 0.78 | 0.773047213729465 | -0.079888466356351 | -0.00120789902760609 | 1.08884806088135 |
58 | 0.7 | 0.701030258915437 | -0.0728935771515331 | -0.00148175735159583 | 0.0602416596482057 |
59 | 0.36 | 0.376475710291268 | -0.296531540171508 | -0.00204056654989654 | -1.92602590194928 |
60 | 0.35 | 0.334573279768244 | -0.0703012558967525 | 0.00082447920596854 | 1.94841070404209 |