| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 1 | 1.03801152041440 | -0.146211813609435 | -0.0135888218791398 | -0.335875849641164 |
| 3 | -0.8 | -0.684707016057503 | -1.19436735938808 | 2.59577598804486e-05 | -1.4949461493531 |
| 4 | -2.9 | -2.83707455819736 | -1.8215264455507 | 0.00598001305087772 | -0.901324825695947 |
| 5 | -0.7 | -0.96764606007484 | 0.590208981698554 | -0.00240455541636278 | 3.51088925074813 |
| 6 | -0.7 | -0.675863747419444 | 0.394990702031841 | -0.00222061368429005 | -0.284650173938428 |
| 7 | 1.5 | 1.38035644326524 | 1.48220454135134 | -0.00243163971159079 | 1.58545073527241 |
| 8 | 3 | 2.99285776534604 | 1.56748846835726 | -0.00243373157549621 | 0.12436740293503 |
| 9 | 3.2 | 3.29540220323008 | 0.739522692556956 | -0.00243541792231519 | -1.20740163140865 |
| 10 | 3.1 | 3.16627794569658 | 0.170951909926667 | -0.00243690393067207 | -0.829132446275882 |
| 11 | 3.9 | 3.86374075974952 | 0.515578011620494 | -0.00243653880420736 | 0.502559561182696 |
| 12 | 1 | 1.23362871262796 | -1.54342277949812 | -0.00243717108764966 | -3.00258897724739 |
| 13 | 1.3 | 0.851198743252725 | -0.80366680650433 | 0.365738918164358 | 1.23223193553873 |
| 14 | 0.8 | 0.783492622644794 | -0.384627140056491 | -0.0180890983885301 | 0.560274657687857 |
| 15 | 1.2 | 1.16470922841989 | 0.120177805895604 | -0.0203742532305920 | 0.725678727985411 |
| 16 | 2.9 | 2.81333460428529 | 1.12072459477073 | -0.0245838724968566 | 1.44951968210288 |
| 17 | 3.9 | 3.92522258221238 | 1.11494524363903 | -0.0245744914912431 | -0.00842106371047601 |
| 18 | 4.5 | 4.55972752780782 | 0.800564637077947 | -0.0244311096454100 | -0.458427775498266 |
| 19 | 4.5 | 4.58160650161327 | 0.290911305701806 | -0.0243811320886669 | -0.743213015011021 |
| 20 | 3.3 | 3.43035824266764 | -0.653040654873944 | -0.0243681443153670 | -1.37654132925854 |
| 21 | 2 | 2.07591751849108 | -1.11213972716115 | -0.0243683288706696 | -0.669492609947243 |
| 22 | 1.5 | 1.48598822506478 | -0.770328470176313 | -0.0243679438597394 | 0.498454743894787 |
| 23 | 1 | 1.00323275817253 | -0.582098510835371 | -0.0243678517807974 | 0.274491007243181 |
| 24 | 2.1 | 2.00775918969923 | 0.456421371552545 | -0.0243676988205957 | 1.51444737902976 |
| 25 | 3 | 2.68434497126415 | 0.598646446976939 | 0.299685513793754 | 0.222219738541756 |
| 26 | 4 | 3.97880193018746 | 1.01508272177387 | -0.0178106725511759 | 0.579019443877103 |
| 27 | 5.1 | 5.10959599308478 | 1.09117234035992 | -0.0180383474581649 | 0.109917032909162 |
| 28 | 4.5 | 4.62989441081824 | 0.0628897987264758 | -0.0151793885574565 | -1.49303270751098 |
| 29 | 4.2 | 4.24754484153516 | -0.228386122252998 | -0.0148671672437711 | -0.424533414640648 |
| 30 | 3.3 | 3.36295336788593 | -0.657821939668136 | -0.0147378402774864 | -0.626212394534033 |
| 31 | 2.7 | 2.71408053712136 | -0.651964579528715 | -0.0147382195508938 | 0.00854162859263727 |
| 32 | 1.8 | 1.83167307440080 | -0.80279926062265 | -0.0147368491858344 | -0.219958411788296 |
| 33 | 1.4 | 1.38831943965671 | -0.567525348005809 | -0.0147367867341524 | 0.343094018990734 |
| 34 | 0.5 | 0.535690531618139 | -0.754138972545623 | -0.0147369255312250 | -0.272133946856378 |
| 35 | -0.4 | -0.373842408727871 | -0.855851569782623 | -0.0147369583858546 | -0.148324917900332 |
| 36 | 0.8 | 0.674768929676961 | 0.390708015816816 | -0.0147368371511561 | 1.81782643667692 |
| 37 | 0.7 | 0.61384853607726 | 0.0976578329841314 | 0.119056131414941 | -0.447739860982381 |
| 38 | 1.9 | 1.83172787062467 | 0.78409707988341 | 0.000495166300047246 | 0.968857689294647 |
| 39 | 2 | 2.04070012819251 | 0.406349154133475 | 0.00133930556396310 | -0.54699525506795 |
| 40 | 1.1 | 1.18897281955767 | -0.417163752435337 | 0.00304904641813670 | -1.19702993108501 |
| 41 | 0.9 | 0.888448454385456 | -0.340847959518955 | 0.00298798207750703 | 0.111245017560968 |
| 42 | 0.4 | 0.407300736060819 | -0.43266773170609 | 0.00300862280273498 | -0.133894783442055 |
| 43 | 0.7 | 0.647557917614162 | 0.00777900561697509 | 0.00298733451435237 | 0.642291699564307 |
| 44 | 2.1 | 1.99831716102726 | 0.886818093550494 | 0.0029813732263065 | 1.28188053989151 |
| 45 | 2.8 | 2.80305136749803 | 0.833090366645403 | 0.00298136258081404 | -0.0783497904675206 |
| 46 | 3.9 | 3.87915812957 | 0.992155952385985 | 0.00298145089084799 | 0.231961335979678 |
| 47 | 3.5 | 3.59110716788505 | 0.154200881845450 | 0.00298124884988678 | -1.22196876709453 |
| 48 | 2 | 2.11671198635657 | -0.911791000890389 | 0.00298117146348577 | -1.55450910498620 |
| 49 | 2 | 1.92837927258412 | -0.441323625878061 | 0.0187950589760031 | 0.710650440006949 |
| 50 | 1.5 | 1.50073478148677 | -0.432825428180175 | -0.00159849318569779 | 0.0120892562646396 |
| 51 | 2.5 | 2.40529781085564 | 0.444971777512692 | -0.00316377782046862 | 1.27290297424715 |
| 52 | 3.1 | 3.08614947391274 | 0.599372617274491 | -0.00341955711599084 | 0.224578718068195 |
| 53 | 2.7 | 2.7702497536162 | 0.000472815860059872 | -0.00303726580152022 | -0.873082652524495 |
| 54 | 2.8 | 2.80082850307018 | 0.020176333452032 | -0.00304079917197125 | 0.0287325138405989 |
| 55 | 2.5 | 2.52480207111156 | -0.173697264998156 | -0.00303332398486367 | -0.282720745054261 |
| 56 | 3 | 2.95840248323227 | 0.223805886076751 | -0.00303547443078757 | 0.579668824839837 |
| 57 | 3.2 | 3.2016095859972 | 0.236504885619324 | -0.00303547242357751 | 0.0185186310802656 |
| 58 | 2.8 | 2.84651506745081 | -0.150724538399919 | -0.00303564392124261 | -0.564686912712573 |
| 59 | 2.4 | 2.42307856057176 | -0.329227221815416 | -0.00303567825485336 | -0.260305965852387 |
| 60 | 2 | 2.00925319545875 | -0.384600641419640 | -0.00303568146162566 | -0.0807496626785948 |
| 61 | 1.8 | 1.75026829958601 | -0.302805044957922 | 0.0405474143954293 | 0.122701515793977 |
| 62 | 1.1 | 1.12665043511292 | -0.503913421085249 | -0.0058334774787796 | -0.287474333163091 |
| 63 | -1.5 | -1.35151274916247 | -1.79911525964438 | -0.00391205454895118 | -1.87996337096643 |
| 64 | -3.7 | -3.65928154941211 | -2.13206428879176 | -0.00345321823164634 | -0.48449054227055 |
